MO-SEN 2024: Kunce joins the race

[ProgressiveModerate]

IIRC, recall Kunce is gay which could be a problem in rural MO which is still culturally southern on social issues and would be relatively easy for the gop to weaponize to increase polarization

[EastOfEden]

Hawley by 20, and I liked Kunce.

Trump only won Missouri by 15 points in 2020. I can’t see Hawley winning by more than that.

If Ds seriously invested, it proly wouldn’t be that hard to get this within 10 in a good year. It’s actually getting over the finish which is very hard cause you’d have to break through in a lot of MO rurals

You don't have to "break through" in the sense of winning rural counties, but you do have to cut the margins a lot.

If my math is right, matching Galloway's margins in St Louis City, St Louis County, St Charles, Boone, Jackson, Clay, Platte, and Greene and keeping most rural counties at no more than 70-30 R should be just enough. But the "less-rural rurals," like Jefferson, Buchanan, Cass, Adair, Cole and so on are absolutely key here. The D would have to perform well in those. Not to Galloway's level, but well.

Note also that some aspects of Galloway's 2018 map are not realistic for any other candidate. She had an extreme regional overperformance in the area around Columbia - Boone, where Columbia is, voted to the left of Jackson, and she won three counties bordering it (two of which have no ancestral D history at all, even Jay Nixon 2008 didn't win them). That's not likely to be replicated. She also performed strongly in ancestral D counties, winning one (Ste Genevieve) and coming close in several others, and that ancestralism seems to be gone now.

I guess if there's anything to take from this, it's that St Charles and Greene will be key to any future D winning coalition in Missouri, and that being a local overperformer really helps.

IIRC, recall Kunce is gay which could be a problem in rural MO which is still culturally southern on social issues and would be relatively easy for the gop to weaponize to increase polarization

I wouldn't worry about that too much, at least not yet. The parts of the state where it would do damage are already the most R anyway.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

The RS can't call people gay with Santos and Larry Craig but Matthew Sancramainte is gay too and running for Senate in FL we aren't winning red states anyways unless it's Brown, Tester or Manchin anyways

[ProgressiveModerate]

Hawley by 20, and I liked Kunce.

Trump only won Missouri by 15 points in 2020. I can’t see Hawley winning by more than that.

If Ds seriously invested, it proly wouldn’t be that hard to get this within 10 in a good year. It’s actually getting over the finish which is very hard cause you’d have to break through in a lot of MO rurals

You don't have to "break through" in the sense of winning rural counties, but you do have to cut the margins a lot.

If my math is right, matching Galloway's margins in St Louis City, St Louis County, St Charles, Boone, Jackson, Clay, Platte, and Greene and keeping most rural counties at no more than 70-30 R should be just enough. But the "less-rural rurals," like Jefferson, Buchanan, Cass, Adair, Cole and so on are absolutely key here. The D would have to perform well in those. Not to Galloway's level, but well.

Note also that some aspects of Galloway's 2018 map are not realistic for any other candidate. She had an extreme regional overperformance in the area around Columbia - Boone, where Columbia is, voted to the left of Jackson, and she won three counties bordering it (two of which have no ancestral D history at all, even Jay Nixon 2008 didn't win them). That's not likely to be replicated. She also performed strongly in ancestral D counties, winning one (Ste Genevieve) and coming close in several others, and that ancestralism seems to be gone now.

I guess if there's anything to take from this, it's that St Charles and Greene will be key to any future D winning coalition in Missouri, and that being a local overperformer really helps.

IIRC, recall Kunce is gay which could be a problem in rural MO which is still culturally southern on social issues and would be relatively easy for the gop to weaponize to increase polarization

I wouldn't worry about that too much, at least not yet. The parts of the state where it would do damage are already the most R anyway.

Here's the 2020 election results in Missouri.

I really agree with a lot of your points, especially about the denser "exurbs" around the St. Louis metro which are pretty expansive and net Rs a huge amount of votes. Any D who wants to have any shot of victory statewide in MO in this day and age has to cut into the margins in those counties.

I think rather than comparing to Galloway who had really unique regional overperformances, I would use MO-Sen 2018 as a baseline where Hawley "only" won by 6%. Despite being a midterm year, Missouri had really solid turnout across the board in 2018.

McCatskill did universally better than Biden in rural MO but only by about 10 points; her biggest cuts into Republicans "normal" performance was in the St Louis exurbs, specifically places like Jefferson County.

Yet, I think what killed her is she actually underperformed Biden in much of the inner-STL suburbs that had been shifting pretty hard left. Some of that could be attributed to downballot lag, but I mean she barely improved on Clinton. If Ds can get the right messaging here painting Hawley as an extremist and what not, Kunce could def outrun Biden in these traditionally red suburbs like we saw Fetterman, Warnock, and Kelly do in 2022.

Also we see a simillar theme with the notoriously close 2016 Senate race where the only place Kander ran behind HRC was in a few of the immediate SLC suburbs and downtown Kansas City for some reason, though I don't think Kander's rural performance is replicable today.

Given how uphill the 2024 Senate map is, putting Missouri on the map could at least help force Rs to divert resources away from places like MI/WI/PA/NV even if Ds end up losing the seat.

[Brittain33]

Best-case scenario is McConnell having to spend $20m in Q3 so Hawley can win by 10.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Best-case scenario is McConnell having to spend $20m in Q3 so Hawley can win by 10.

You never know what happens in a wave insurance, I said waves don't happen until 1mnth before Eday users get caught up in red states so far away from Eday

No one expected Kander in 2016 to get within 3 of Blunt either and it was a Prez yr, this replaced FL and TX as wave insurance we don't have any name brand candidate in either TX and FL

Do you know we have been level pegging with RS 50/50 on the Senate maps but 16/20 Edays RS have won the H due to Gerrymandering we ended Gerrymandering in MN PA, NC and MI we have the state legislature but WI, OH, TX, FL the RS owe their H majority to, I expect Ds to win both H at worse I expect S to stay D and this is the same- for OH, MT and WVA, RS have bad Approvals Brown, Tester's and Manchin have solid Approvals, Vance and Johnson won with 38 percent Approvals our Ds including Kunce and Ryan had 48/39 percent approvals Vance won because DeWine not him had DeSantis 55 percent Approvals or he would have Lost

Johnson didn't win by himself WOW counties were Gerrymandering, Michels lost because he was the underdog but if Kleefish was the nomination she was Fav

[Pollster]

IIRC, recall Kunce is gay which could be a problem in rural MO which is still culturally southern on social issues and would be relatively easy for the gop to weaponize to increase polarization

This obviously doesn't disprove that he's gay (something that can't be proven, etc etc) but he is a divorced father of two children, an Anglican Christian, and a member of the Episcopal Church.

[wbrocks67]

In a state like MO, I think the Ryan/Zeldin route is pretty much the best you can ask for. Hawley isn't going to lose, but he'll probably underperform, so if Kunce can actually lower the margin a bit and maybe make it harder for Wagner in MO-02, that's a win in itself.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

In a state like MO, I think the Ryan/Zeldin route is pretty much the best you can ask for. Hawley isn't going to lose, but he'll probably underperform, so if Kunce can actually lower the margin a bit and maybe make it harder for Wagner in MO-02, that's a win in itself.

I disagree Kander came within 3 49/46 in 2016 where Hillary lost th EC map Hawley can lose 1 month not 2 yrs before Eday no one wins PVI by 10 but 2012 we won MO, OH, WV and MT with a PVI 51/47

We will win the PVI between 4/6 pts and it's in play this means we don't have to win TX and FL Allred and Murphy haven't declared yet


But, I agree that users just like in OH, MT, WV are completely writing off MO just because  Trudy Valentine lost and Guess what 22 PVI was D 0.5 not D 4)6 pts and it's the same users all the time we know whom they are and they were wrong because the compiled map was wrong

[Gracile]

I'm pretty sure Kunce is not gay (not sure how that rumor got started).

[Raccoon]

How Missouri will trend in 2024 and beyond is a mystery to me, but I am betting it on trending a bit left.

While liberal ballot measures tend to do well in many red states, they often do surprisingly well in Missouri. And the Democratic collapse in suburbs in MO that was assumed in 2022 did not happen.

But the only Democrat who won Missouri statewide since 2012 was Nicole Galloway in 2018. And her opponent was running for state auditor with

1) Multiple bankruptcies

2) Came off as goofy and unqualified

3)  Unqualified to hold the office of state auditor due to residency.

4) Was sued multiple times and involved in many law suits.

Galloway only won by 6 points.  Bordered on being a fluke.

[Adam Griffin]

You don't have to "break through" in the sense of winning rural counties, but you do have to cut the margins a lot.

Yep. In Missouri, it's all about margins rather than county flips.

Three elections: one decided by 3 points, one by 6 points, and one by 15 points. Obviously there are plenty of precincts that flipped one way or another, but you have to stare pretty intently to discern those over the huge red-shift in the rural areas:

[MarkD]

If I were you, I would not take it for granted that Kunce is going to be the Dem nominee next year. He likely will have to get past some other contenders in the D primary, which could include some who do hold or who have held office. State Senators John Rizzo, Brian Williams, and/or Lauren Arthur come to mind. State Reps. Crystal Quade, Donna Baringer, Peter Meredith, Sarah Unsicker, Gretchen Bangert, and/or former state Rep. Trish Gunby could also jump into the race. And don't forget that the MO Dem Party has nominated twice as many women for the US Senate races in the last 41 years as men.

[Tekken_Guy]

If I were you, I would not take it for granted that Kunce is going to be the Dem nominee next year. He likely will have to get past some other contenders in the D primary, which could include some who do hold or who have held office. State Senators John Rizzo, Brian Williams, and/or Lauren Arthur come to mind. State Reps. Crystal Quade, Donna Baringer, Peter Meredith, Sarah Unsicker, Gretchen Bangert, and/or former state Rep. Trish Gunby could also jump into the race. And don't forget that the MO Dem Party has nominated twice as many women for the US Senate races in the last 41 years as men.

Missouri also has most of its statewide elected officials elected in presidential years so they can easy run for those races imstead of Senate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hawley by 20, and I liked Kunce.

Hawley will easily win (depressingly) but he is still too polarizing to do better than Trump.

[windjammer]

Well in the end, there is nothing to lose to be bold. A traditional democrat won't win in Missouri so if there is just 1% chance, it will have to be some populist ideology. Go Kunce!

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Well in the end, there is nothing to lose to be bold. A traditional democrat won't win in Missouri so if there is just 1% chance, it will have to be some populist ideology. Go Kunce!

Jason Kander got within 3 pts of Blunt in 2016 an Eday yr you never know what happens in wave insurance didn't all these users predict the wrong compiled map in 22 yes they did it was wrong

Completely writting this state off is wrong

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I'm pretty sure Kunce is not gay (not sure how that rumor got started).

They think most D's are Gay and Rs are straight and Santos and Larry Craig are both Gay

[Ferguson97]

Good luck to him, but Hawley is still going to easily win by double digits.

[Tekken_Guy]

Good luck to him, but Hawley is still going to easily win by double digits.

There’s a chance Hawley is held into the high single digits.

Hawley by 20, and I liked Kunce.

Hawley will easily win (depressingly) but he is still too polarizing to do better than Trump.

I assume you mean Trump 2020 right? Because Trump in 2024 might be toxic enough to underperform even Hawley. DeSantis almost certainly runs ahead of him though.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Good luck to him, but Hawley is still going to easily win by double digits.

Do you know Shawn Wilson is leading Landry 23/22/2 in an R poll look it's in the 2022 poll section no one expects Shawn Wilson to won but the fact it's completetive is amazing and LA like GA has this crazy runoff if you don't get 50% it's a Runoff, you can never say never, the reason why MS isn't gonna be D not just because it's an R state Flagg's is gonna split the vote with Pressley, he is running as an D independent, Reeves only won by 5 not 20

We need to wait til after 2023 Gov races if we get swept yeah we aren't gonna win red states but it's likely we're not, and the insurrection is still a problem for Rs

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good luck to him, but Hawley is still going to easily win by double digits.

There’s a chance Hawley is held into the high single digits.

Hawley by 20, and I liked Kunce.

Hawley will easily win (depressingly) but he is still too polarizing to do better than Trump.

I assume you mean Trump 2020 right? Because Trump in 2024 might be toxic enough to underperform even Hawley. DeSantis almost certainly runs ahead of him though.

Yes, I meant from 2020.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be 50/52 seat majority we can win a Filibuster proof Trifecta without Sinema, Tester and Manchin 51/50, with Gallego, Brown and Kunce

MO was very close in 2016 49(46 with Hillary but Jay Ashcroft is gonna be Gov just like Capito in WV and Gianforte in MT and DeWine in OH

Red states are gonna be closer than 2022, especially OH since RS aren't gonna win 25 that was the only saving grace for Vance if DeWine won by 6 Vance would have Lost

Cruz and Scott are favorite if Murphy or Allred don't run

[MarkD]

A second Democrat is now in the race: December Harmon, currently a member of Columbia, MO Citizen Police Review Board.
https://www.komu.com/news/elections/columbia-activist-announces-bid-for-u-s-senate/article_3d257134-95e1-11ed-bdd1-b7b56d48182a.html
She probably will get only single digits in the primary, unless she's the only black person in the primary race, and she convinces most blacks to coalesce behind her.

[100% pro-choice no matter what]

That ad wasn't 'January 6 nonsense" it barely even mentioned it. It was actually quite good, and everyone should watch it.