MO-SEN 2024: Kunce joins the race

[Crane]

I love Kunce and he destroyed Hawley there. Sadly MO is pretty broken and nobody cares about Senate debates anyway.

[These birds not meant to fly alone]

Kunce has been one of my favorite candidates of the last 2 cycles that he's run, and it's a shame that he's running in such a deep red state because he has no chance of winning. I respect tremendously that he's at least fighting the good fight in MO and maybe opening a few minds along the way. I'm a big proponent of Democrats still trying to get their message out, even in places that they know they won't win.

[Steve from Lambeth]

Petition for the thread title to be changed to "Young joins the race" in honour of MarkD

[GeorgiaModerate]

If this was the Missouri of 15 or even 10 years ago, I think Kunce would be slightly favored at this point, but sadly not now.  Although I do think that if there's one Senate upset that nobody saw coming...it could be this one.

[Mr. Smith]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kunce outperforms Tester and Osborn both, making this state the tipping point after all.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kunce outperforms Tester and Osborn both, making this state the tipping point after all.

Are you seeing some amazing polling numbers somewhere or did you sneak a bit of that Cali grass with you to TX?

[Mr. Smith]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kunce outperforms Tester and Osborn both, making this state the tipping point after all.

Are you seeing some amazing polling numbers somewhere or did you sneak a bit of that Cali grass with you to TX?

Nah, just pessimistic enough with those two at this point that it's plausible, if unlikely.

This literally might be the most lol-margin tipping point and odds since 2008 when Tim Johnson's race blowout was the tipping point.

[PALiberal]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kunce outperforms Tester and Osborn both, making this state the tipping point after all.

Are you seeing some amazing polling numbers somewhere or did you sneak a bit of that Cali grass with you to TX?

Nah, just pessimistic enough with those two at this point that it's plausible, if unlikely.

This literally might be the most lol-margin tipping point and odds since 2008 when Tim Johnson's race blowout was the tipping point.

RIP btw

[Mr. Smith]

So...now that we're post-Selzer poll IA...still thinking Hawley's got this like totes in the bag?

[Compuzled_One]

I still think Hawley has a 99% chance to win, but I do think Kunce is getting it down into the single digits.

[Oryxslayer]

If this happens it's going to be either Seat 52+1 or 53+1. It will be behind Montana, Texas, Nebraska, and maybe Florida. I'm still not sure if the needle can push that deep. So maybe interesting, but if it does, we will be guided to it by earlier numbers from other states.

[MarkD]

What will be somewhat interesting about the seven statewide races in Missouri this year is that Republicans will probably win Lt. Gov, SoS, Treasurer, and A.G. by bigger margins than President, US Senate, and Governor.

I'm not optimistic about Jared Young winning this Senate race, but I am looking forward to him getting about 5-6%.
Green Party should get less than 1% and Libertarian less than 2%.

[Raccoon]

While Hawley will probably win tonight,

I will say his twitter account .. he seems to be running scared. It is funny actually!

[Mr. Smith]

Wouldn't be surprised if Kunce outperforms Tester and Osborn both, making this state the tipping point after all.

Should've said Allred instead of Osborn, this close to total vindication and accolades grabbing...grrr!

[MarkD]

Wow. Jared Young is doing so much worse than I thought he would.

[MarkD]

Any theories as to why Hawley had the weakest performance of the GOP ticket? He won by only 13.73 points, whereas the rest of the Republican ticket won by 18 points or more.
US Sen - Hawley -- 55.57% / Kunce -- 41.84%
SoS - Hoskins -- 57.66% / Phifer -- 39.66%
Prez - Trump -- 58.49% / Harris -- 40.08%
Trea - Malek -- 57.93% / Osmack -- 38.04%
Lt. G - Wasinger -- 57.38% / Brown -- 38.50%
US House - 8 GOP -- 58.50% / 8 Dems -- 38.49%
Gov - Kehoe -- 59.14% / Quade -- 38.72%
A.G. - Bailey -- 59.72% / Gross -- 37.92%

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Kunce was a military combat vet

[EastOfEden]

Any theories as to why Hawley had the weakest performance of the GOP ticket? He won by only 13.73 points, whereas the rest of the Republican ticket won by 18 points or more.
US Sen - Hawley -- 55.57% / Kunce -- 41.84%
SoS - Hoskins -- 57.66% / Phifer -- 39.66%
Prez - Trump -- 58.49% / Harris -- 40.08%
Trea - Malek -- 57.93% / Osmack -- 38.04%
Lt. G - Wasinger -- 57.38% / Brown -- 38.50%
US House - 8 GOP -- 58.50% / 8 Dems -- 38.49%
Gov - Kehoe -- 59.14% / Quade -- 38.72%
A.G. - Bailey -- 59.72% / Gross -- 37.92%

Hawley has always come across as an empty suit, apart from the occasional broken-clock moment. Both this year and in 2018, he won on partisanship alone. Very low-energy campaigner.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

Any theories as to why Hawley had the weakest performance of the GOP ticket? He won by only 13.73 points, whereas the rest of the Republican ticket won by 18 points or more.
US Sen - Hawley -- 55.57% / Kunce -- 41.84%
SoS - Hoskins -- 57.66% / Phifer -- 39.66%
Prez - Trump -- 58.49% / Harris -- 40.08%
Trea - Malek -- 57.93% / Osmack -- 38.04%
Lt. G - Wasinger -- 57.38% / Brown -- 38.50%
US House - 8 GOP -- 58.50% / 8 Dems -- 38.49%
Gov - Kehoe -- 59.14% / Quade -- 38.72%
A.G. - Bailey -- 59.72% / Gross -- 37.92%

Hawley has always come across as an empty suit, apart from the occasional broken-clock moment. Both this year and in 2018, he won on partisanship alone. Very low-energy campaigner.

Hawley's 2018 campaign:

[CentristRepublican]

Any theories as to why Hawley had the weakest performance of the GOP ticket? He won by only 13.73 points, whereas the rest of the Republican ticket won by 18 points or more.
US Sen - Hawley -- 55.57% / Kunce -- 41.84%
SoS - Hoskins -- 57.66% / Phifer -- 39.66%
Prez - Trump -- 58.49% / Harris -- 40.08%
Trea - Malek -- 57.93% / Osmack -- 38.04%
Lt. G - Wasinger -- 57.38% / Brown -- 38.50%
US House - 8 GOP -- 58.50% / 8 Dems -- 38.49%
Gov - Kehoe -- 59.14% / Quade -- 38.72%
A.G. - Bailey -- 59.72% / Gross -- 37.92%

Hawley has always come across as an empty suit, apart from the occasional broken-clock moment. Both this year and in 2018, he won on partisanship alone. Very low-energy campaigner.

In 2018 he was also viewed as opportunistic and too-ambitious, since he had just been elected Missouri's AG two years earlier.

I do feel like a stronger incumbent candidate might've held onto the seat, actually. Given that a D challenging an R incumbent in a much less favorable environment (2016) actually came closer to winning.

McCaskill was the Democratic Roy Blunt, a creature of the establishment who clearly only won in 2012 by as much as she did - credit where credit is due, it was still an incredible performance - because of (well-played) ratfcking in the primary.

[He's turned to dust now, one of the chosen few]

McCaskill was the Democratic Roy Blunt, a creature of the establishment who clearly only won in 2012 by as much as she did - credit where credit is due, it was still an incredible performance - because of (well-played) ratfcking in the primary.

The Missouri side of my extended family talks about McCaskill as a sort of faildaughter of the "senator from Pendergast" world of times past, a machine creature devoid of dynamism and ideas who really was carried by that alone.

[Spectator]

McCaskill was the Democratic Roy Blunt, a creature of the establishment who clearly only won in 2012 by as much as she did - credit where credit is due, it was still an incredible performance - because of (well-played) ratfcking in the primary.

The Missouri side of my extended family talks about McCaskill as a sort of faildaughter of the "senator from Pendergast" world of times past, a machine creature devoid of dynamism and ideas who really was carried by that alone.

Part of me wonders how long Mel Carnahan would’ve stayed in the Senate had he not died, and when he’d pass the torch. Of course be might never have beaten Ashcroft had it not been for the sympathy effect. Had he won 2000, i don’t think there’s any doubt he wins in a landslide in 2006 and probably holds on in 2012 even without Akin. But he’d have been 78 then, so I wonder if he retires and passes the torch to someone like Robin or Jay Nixon. Robin Carnahan presumably would not have ran for Senate in 2010 in this timeline if her dad was in the Senate. Russ Carnahan probably wins his primary in 2012 if his dad is still the top Dem in the state.

McCaskill’s unpopularity seems largely self-inflicted in failing to adapt to a state that was moving to the right. Mel Carnahan seemed to be a savvier politician that could’ve adapted to the shifting landscape. Kind of like Joe Manchin who wasn’t known to be a conservaDem as Governor, but embraced that mold to win his Senate races.