2023 election predictions
mileslunn:
Here are mine and feel free to add any others people think of or give your own on some of these.
Canada:
Alberta - NDP majority and while not a landslide, I don't think it will be particularly close either.
Manitoba: NDP majority but PCs win popular vote thanks to massive margins in rural southern parts but NDP still on seat count wins by decent margin.
PEI: PC majority, likely a landslide.
United States:
Kentucky: Beshear re-elected so Dem hold
Louisiana: GOP pick up
Mississippi: GOP hold.
Argentina: Centre-right wins back presidency
Finland: National Rally comes in first, Centre party defects from current coalition which is still viable and backs a centre-right one but doesn't become a member but agrees to not defeat them and let them govern.
Germany:
Hesse: Black-Green
Bremen: Red-Green
Berlin: Red-Red-Green
Bavaria: Black-FW
Luxembourg: CSV wins popular vote but smaller share than in years. Current coalition of Democratic party + LSAP + Greens maintains majority and stays in power.
Switzerland: Status quo, very boring one with SVP in first, SDP and FDP battle for second, CVP in distant fourth, Greens get in double digits.
Spain: PP comes in first but falls short of majority but Feijoo becomes PM on second investiture vote as Vox abstains. PP also makes gains in autonomous community elections in May too.
Greece: New Democracy wins, but loses majority, forms grand coalition with KINAL
Estonia: Reform party wins and forms coalition with other centre-right parties.
Poland: United right loses majority but still wins and gets support for minor right wing parties.
Turkey: Erdogan loses presidency but refuses to leave and launches coup to stay in power claiming election was rigged and orders a re-vote and rigs enough to ensure he wins.
Australia:
New South Wales: Labor wins majority gaining state
New Zealand: National Party comes in first and has enough seats to form a narrow majority with ACT.
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers:
KY is gonna be very close like 2019 but we get polls from PA showing fraud polls Casey down 5 but we don't get a KY Gov polls
S019:
Alberta: NDP majority
Manitoba: NDP majority
PEI: PC majority
Kentucky: R gain (Cameron wins primary)
MS: R hold
LA: R gain (Landry wins primary)
Argentina: JxC victory
Finland: KOK places first, forms minority government
Spain: PP minority with C+S from VOX
Greece: ND forms government (either majority or coalition with KINAL) (Greece's electoral system confuses me :P)
Estonia: Reform forms government with E200 and one or both of SDE/Isamaa
Poland: PO forms a coalition with PL2050 and Lewica
Turkey: Erdogan loses (Probably wishful thinking)
NSW: Labor majority, Minns becomes Premier
New Zealand: National+ACT coalition, Luxon becomes PM
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers:
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Liminal Trans Girl:
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