Biden did better in Minnesota than Trump did in Texas
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  Biden did better in Minnesota than Trump did in Texas
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Author Topic: Biden did better in Minnesota than Trump did in Texas  (Read 4756 times)
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« Reply #25 on: December 13, 2020, 01:55:52 PM »

I don’t think even the biggest Democratic/left wing hacks saw this type of margin in Minnesota coming.
I predicted that Biden would win MN by 7-10%.
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« Reply #26 on: December 13, 2020, 09:35:29 PM »

I think one thing that's being kind of missed is that basically all areas in Minnesota that are gaining population are swinging D while almost all swinging R are losing population.

But for example, look at former R strongholds Anoka and Carver County. Trump won both of them combined by 7248 votes. Biden won Olmsted County by almost 10k votes. Thus cancelling both of them out by a county that isn't even in the metro! And these two were formerly key to any GOP path to victory in Minnesota.

Meanwhile look at the 2010 race for State Auditor. I think this is the highest percentage a statewide Republican has ever received in Minnesota since Obama took office (47.13%) is the closest DFL race with barely over a point. And the margins were:

Carver R+9032
Anoka R+8396
Scott R+9357

And Hennepin County was D+76,034, Ramsey D+46,187. So while heavily dwarfing those, they at least made a dent. Meanwhile in 2020 Biden won Hennepin County by 326,612 votes and Ramsey County by 134,247. Trump's combined margin of 13,082 in those counties is equivalent to less than 1/10 of Biden's in Ramsey County and about 1/25 of Biden's in Hennepin.

Yes this was a WAY higher turnout election (Biden got almost twice as many votes as DFL winner Otto!) but the point is pretty clear, the GOP's former strongholds are basically just doing scratch damage to newly buffed up DFL strongholds, and they're not going to make that up just by scraping a couple thousand more votes out of declining rural areas.

Oh and that aforementioned Olmsted County? Anderson actually won it by over 8k votes. In a much lower turnout election. It's not just the metro swinging against the Republicans.

(Anderson also won her home county of Dakota, and only lost Washington by a hair, and clearly would've had won it had it not have been Otto's home county and base of support. Those two went from giving the Democrats at most marginal victories to pretty solid ones.)
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #27 on: December 13, 2020, 11:32:27 PM »

Minnesota is now more partisan than Texas. Hahahaha oh yes, love that little factoid about this election.

I mean, partisanship has to be measured in relative terms
. MN is 3 points to the left of the nation and TX 10 points to the right. But yeah, it says something about the extent of Biden's victory that in raw terms he won MN by more than he lost TX.

Why?

Because obviously there are back and forths in the respective level of popular support of the two parties and there has to be some way to control for them, and the convention is to do so by taking a hypothetical tied race as the baseline.

This hypothetical tied race isn't real, though, which makes using it for analysis nothing short of useless. The actual numbers inform us that Minnesota is more Democratic than Texas is Republican. In fact, the idea that there are any back and forths at all is stretch to begin with. The last four elections are D+7, D+4, D+2, and D+5. Pretending Republicans have an equal seat at the table simply skews the numbers and obfuscates reality for no good reason.

But you can't say a state is "more partisan" than another based on how they vote in a presidential election, because the point of a presidential election isn't to measure partisanship, but to elect a President. The results contingent on specific candidates and a specific context. There's no good way to control for that, really, but the reason we take the PVI is to at least have a measure that's invariant to year-by-year cycles. Whatever variable represents the national environment can easily be extrapolated by seeing how a state result compares to PVI, so it's not like the process destroys information of anything. In fact, seeing Democratic candidates outperform PVI so consistently is evidence that they're more popular.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #28 on: December 14, 2020, 12:35:16 AM »

I don’t think even the biggest Democratic/left wing hacks saw this type of margin in Minnesota coming.

IIRC a lot of people from Minnesota did. I know I did.
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« Reply #29 on: December 14, 2020, 01:06:59 AM »

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

The "rural" parts of Minnesota are probably already close to 70% Republican but the mid sized cities outside the Twin Cities Metro are are Democratic leaning. Duluth 68% D, Rochester 59% D, Mankato 59% D, St Cloud 52% D, Moorhead 57% D.  All trended D this past election.  70% in greater MN is not going to happen.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #30 on: December 14, 2020, 03:22:14 AM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 03:28:12 AM by Frenchrepublican »

I don’t think even the biggest Democratic/left wing hacks saw this type of margin in Minnesota coming.
You had plenty of dem hacks who expected Biden to win MN by a low double digits margin or at least a high single digit one.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #31 on: December 14, 2020, 05:16:37 AM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 12:19:35 PM by Frenchrepublican »

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

If rural MN swung 10 point more Republican than how it actually voted this cycle, it would still not be sufficient enough to flip the state: Minnesota minus the seven county metro area is 45% of the state's population, so a 10 point swing in rural MN would translate into a 4.5 point statewide swing, and 7.1 - 4.5 = Biden would still have won by 2.6 points (still larger than the margin he actually got in either WI or PA).

For the GOP to break even with the Democrats, they would need to swing the rural vote by 7.1/.45 = 15.8 points. This is an illustration of the fact that the Republicans definitively can flip Minnesota, but that it's unlikely to become a red-leaning state like Iowa or Ohio anytime soon.

Of course, this is all assuming that the Twin Cities area does not swing further to the left (which could be a reasonable assumption with the right GOP candidate) or decrease in portion to the total statewide vote (which is completely nonsensical).

Increasing your vote share by 10% would be increasing your margin by 20 (assuming no 3rd parties for simplicity). Try Again.


Oh yes, a 20 point swing would definitively exceed the 16 points needed to flip the state, but the margin of victory would be less than 2 points.

I think the other issue here is that MSP metro is growing over time. So, if MSP metro starts making up 50% of more of the statewide vote, then the equation essentially is can Rs get a non-MSP margin that's larger than the MSP metro. What makes this challenging is that you do still have the college towns, Duluth and Rochester mixed in with the rurals and they still lean D.


It is in fact one key difference between Ohio (and to some extent PA) and Minnesota, while in Ohio most small metros have shifted sharply to the right, in Minnesota most of them have stayed relatively democratic (Duluth) or have even trended left (Rochester).
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #32 on: December 14, 2020, 06:17:29 AM »

Minnesota is now more partisan than Texas. Hahahaha oh yes, love that little factoid about this election.

Remember that the popular vote was somewhere around Biden+4. While both Texas and Minnesota went for their respective candidates by about 6 points or so. However because of the national PV; this means Texas voted 10 points to the right of the US at large and Minnesota only 2 points to the left.

The state that would actually be "left wing Texas" would be any state that went by a margin like Biden+14 (10 points to the left of the US at large); states like Colorado (Biden+13) or New Jersey (Biden+15) would be the ones to fit that role.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #33 on: December 14, 2020, 07:20:42 AM »

Republican victories in Minnesota are not going to come purely from doing even better in rural areas. People who don't live in or near rural America often don't understand the extent to which these communities are hemorrhaging population compared to the rate at which the big metropolitan areas are growing.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #34 on: December 14, 2020, 08:38:04 AM »

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

The "rural" parts of Minnesota are probably already close to 70% Republican but the mid sized cities outside the Twin Cities Metro are are Democratic leaning. Duluth 68% D, Rochester 59% D, Mankato 59% D, St Cloud 52% D, Moorhead 57% D.  All trended D this past election.  70% in greater MN is not going to happen.

Talk Election, 2015:

70% is not gonna happen in Rural Ohio
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« Reply #35 on: December 14, 2020, 09:52:55 AM »

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

The "rural" parts of Minnesota are probably already close to 70% Republican but the mid sized cities outside the Twin Cities Metro are are Democratic leaning. Duluth 68% D, Rochester 59% D, Mankato 59% D, St Cloud 52% D, Moorhead 57% D.  All trended D this past election.  70% in greater MN is not going to happen.

Talk Election, 2015:

70% is not gonna happen in Rural Ohio

He's not talking about rural areas in that post.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #36 on: December 14, 2020, 11:42:00 AM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 11:49:26 AM by neostassenite31 »

I posted this on my Twitter Account a while ago, But I'll Say it again:

Trump received roughly 60% in Most of Rural Minnesota

Trump received roughly 75% in most of Rural Ohio

If the GOP can get that 60% of the vote to 70%, they could flip MN, and Ds probably don't have enough room in the Twin Cities Metro to make it up.

The "rural" parts of Minnesota are probably already close to 70% Republican but the mid sized cities outside the Twin Cities Metro are are Democratic leaning. Duluth 68% D, Rochester 59% D, Mankato 59% D, St Cloud 52% D, Moorhead 57% D.  All trended D this past election.  70% in greater MN is not going to happen.

Talk Election, 2015:

70% is not gonna happen in Rural Ohio

He's not talking about rural areas in that post.

So, getting 70% in the entirety of Greater Minnesota (all regional cities + TC and other exurbs + rural areas) will flip the state, though only by 1-2 points (0.45 x 20 = 9 point statewide swing). This of course assumes that the margin in the Twin Cities and its percentage share of the total statewide vote remain completely static.

For example, if the metro area swings 5 points to the left while the rest of the state swings 20 points to the right, then 0.55 x 5 = 3 points statewide swing due to the metro, and 7 - 9 + 3 = and the Dems would win MN by the same margin as in 2016.

The Greater Minnesota versus the Twin Cities dichotomy is a pretty false concept. Minnesota has a bachelor degree+ rate (34.8%) that is almost identical to Washington (34.5%) and New York (35.3%). This educational attainment distribution is the average of the entire state and not just a Twin Cities exclusive phenomena: the average rural Greater MN county is about 5-10% more college-educated than the average rural OH or IA county while the average exurban/regional center Greater MN county is 10-15% more college-educated than their OH or IA counterparts. The reason that MN doesn't vote like WA or NY is because evangelical Christians make up a much higher percentage of MN's population (compared to WA) and the state is extremely white (compared to NY).

Still, relatively low educational attainment and and high religiosity (esp. white evangelicals) is what makes many rural counties favorable to the GOP, not geography. Regional centers in Greater MN, counties such as Olmsted, Nicollet, Blue Earth, Clay, and the eastern tip of Stearns all have bachelor degree+ rates between 30%-40% just like the state at-large, making it difficult for Republicans to get to 70% in Minnesota minus the seven county metro area.
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« Reply #37 on: December 14, 2020, 12:18:01 PM »
« Edited: December 14, 2020, 03:17:42 PM by forsythvoter »

I did some number crunching and here is how MN broke down this election. 59% of the state's vote (~1.9M) came from the 8 counties that include Hennepin / Ramsey + the counties that touch these two counties. 41% (1.3M) votes came from all other counties in the state.

Overall, in the 8 county region, Biden got 62.6% of the two party vote, while in the rest of the state, he got 40.8%. Trump would have needed to get 68% of the Greater MN vote, given the MSP results.

Based on these numbers, it definitely looks like the R path through MN runs through the suburbs and not rural MN. The numbers just aren't there in the rural parts of the state.

Notably, if you took out all the suburbs (i.e., if the state only contained the Twin Cities themselves and Greater MN), Biden would have still won the state with 50.8% (862K - 835K). This likely means that a R win would involve actually winning the combined suburban vote, not just cutting the margins.


                      Trump     Biden        Biden%  Total Votes
Twin Cities           54,584    325,389    85.6%     379,973
Inner Suburbs     228,765   418,854    64.7%     647,619
Middle Suburbs   288,304   336,213     53.8%     624,517
Outer Suburbs    131,854     99,244     42.9%     231,098
Total MSP Met 703,507 1,179,700    62.6%  1,883,207
Greater MN         780,558    537,377    40.8%  1,317,935
Total MN      1,484,065 1,717,077    53.6%   3,201,142
 
 


Twin Cities = Minneapolis & St. Paul Cities
Inner Suburbs = Suburban Hennpin and Ramsey
Middle Suburbs = Dakota, Washington, Anoka
Outer Suburbs = Scott, Carver, Wright
Greater MN = Everything Else


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prag_prog
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« Reply #38 on: December 14, 2020, 02:51:35 PM »

I did some number crunching and here is how MN broke down this election. 69% of the state's vote (~1.9M) came from the 8 counties that include Hennepin / Ramsey + the counties that touch these two counties. 31% (855k) votes came from all other counties in the state.

Overall, in the 8 county region, Biden got 62.6% of the two party vote, while in the rest of the state, he got 40.8%. Trump would have needed to get 77% of the Greater MN vote, given the MSP results.

Based on these numbers, it definitely looks like the R path through MN runs through the suburbs and not rural MN. The numbers just aren't there in the rural parts of the state.

Notably, if you took out all the suburbs (i.e., if the state only contained the Twin Cities themselves and Greater MN), Biden would have still won the state with 50.8% (862K - 835K). This likely means that a R win would involve actually winning the combined suburban vote, not just cutting the margins.


                       Trump     Biden        Biden%  Total Votes
Twin Cities           54,584    325,389    85.6%     379,973
Inner Suburbs     228,765   418,854    64.7%     647,619
Middle Suburbs   288,304   336,213     53.8%     624,517
Outer Suburbs    131,854     99,244     42.9%     231,098
Total MSP Met 703,507 1,179,700    62.6%  1,883,207
Greater MN         780,558    537,377    40.8%     855,615
Total MN      1,484,065 1,717,077    53.6%  2,738,822
 


Twin Cities = Minneapolis & St. Paul Cities
Inner Suburbs = Suburban Hennpin and Ramsey
Middle Suburbs = Dakota, Washington, Anoka
Outer Suburbs = Scott, Carver, Wright
Greater MN = Everything Else



You hvae the Total Vote count in Greater MN and Total MN wrong
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #39 on: December 14, 2020, 03:18:32 PM »

I did some number crunching and here is how MN broke down this election. 69% of the state's vote (~1.9M) came from the 8 counties that include Hennepin / Ramsey + the counties that touch these two counties. 31% (855k) votes came from all other counties in the state.

Overall, in the 8 county region, Biden got 62.6% of the two party vote, while in the rest of the state, he got 40.8%. Trump would have needed to get 77% of the Greater MN vote, given the MSP results.

Based on these numbers, it definitely looks like the R path through MN runs through the suburbs and not rural MN. The numbers just aren't there in the rural parts of the state.

Notably, if you took out all the suburbs (i.e., if the state only contained the Twin Cities themselves and Greater MN), Biden would have still won the state with 50.8% (862K - 835K). This likely means that a R win would involve actually winning the combined suburban vote, not just cutting the margins.


                       Trump     Biden        Biden%  Total Votes
Twin Cities           54,584    325,389    85.6%     379,973
Inner Suburbs     228,765   418,854    64.7%     647,619
Middle Suburbs   288,304   336,213     53.8%     624,517
Outer Suburbs    131,854     99,244     42.9%     231,098
Total MSP Met 703,507 1,179,700    62.6%  1,883,207
Greater MN         780,558    537,377    40.8%     855,615
Total MN      1,484,065 1,717,077    53.6%  2,738,822
 


Twin Cities = Minneapolis & St. Paul Cities
Inner Suburbs = Suburban Hennpin and Ramsey
Middle Suburbs = Dakota, Washington, Anoka
Outer Suburbs = Scott, Carver, Wright
Greater MN = Everything Else



You hvae the Total Vote count in Greater MN and Total MN wrong


You're right, thanks for catching! Fixed now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #40 on: December 14, 2020, 03:34:23 PM »

MN is never gonna trend red even in 2024/ since Klobuchar is up
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« Reply #41 on: December 25, 2022, 12:05:42 PM »

New data showing why just surging more in rural areas won't win:

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RINO Tom
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« Reply #42 on: December 25, 2022, 04:58:52 PM »

^ Was actually expecting the blue to go out much further in the Twin Cities area.
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« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2023, 12:36:07 AM »

I don't know what question we're trying to answer here, but I was expecting Trump to win Texas by 3 and MN by 5, so it wasn't a surprise that MN voted more D than TX voted R. However, I was expecting MN to vote D+5 assuming a D+6/+7 environment. That MN voted D+7 in a D+4.5 national environment is actually pretty surprising to me.

As for what I got wrong on reflection - I actually had thought Dems were pretty maxed in MSP metro around Hillary's numbers (I think many others here did too), but it looks like the Dem ceiling in MSP suburbs especially is quite a bit higher than I would have thought. I definitely didn't see Biden coming within mid single digits in Carver and Scott counties, or cracking 70% in Hennepin.

Texas is becoming more like America as a whole except for having larger minority populations. It used to be worse-educated, more rural, and poorer than America as a whole. As people from outside Texas move in and as the Hispanic population grows, demographics and political attitudes change.  Texas is not yet a microcosm of America, but when it becomes such it will be the definitive swing state. It straddled 400 electoral votes for the Republican nominee for President since the 1980's;  The rural areas are shrinking and the cities are ballooning.
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« Reply #44 on: January 29, 2023, 03:45:12 AM »

Interesting to see Republicans actually came very close to a statewide win at all, but it looks like just getting lucky and uniform swining everywhere rather than having a hidden growth trend.
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