Canadian by-elections 2023

[adma]

So the Liberal candidate was off the ballot, now all it would have taken to win is to get the Green candidate off the ballot as well.  Then she would have won.  Do you hear yourself?  Yes, in any riding in the country where the CONs got less than 50%, any candidate who didn't have the other 2 progressive options would have won.

Again, it isn't just the Green candidate, but the *particular* Green candidate in this riding--by virtue of his '19 run, Mike Morrice was a unique case, not to mention totally apart from the dead-candidate-walking stigma attached to Annamie Paul's team.  (Though had the Lib candidate *not* withdrawn, the dead weight of the Annamie leadership disaster probably would have pushed Morrice below his '19 level and perhaps below the NDP as well.  But he wound up with the tacit Liberal proxy endorsement--essentially, the Greens benefited from a perfect storm on *all* fronts here.)

If you want a hint of what might have happened had the Green candidate been anyone other than Mike Morrice, refer to Spadina-Fort York, the other race where the Libs were forced to drop their candidate.  (That the NDP still fell short reflected the eleventh-hourness of that particular withdrawal of federal Liberal support--had Kevin Vuong been dumped a couple of weeks earlier, the outcome would have been different.)

[DL]

I'd imagine Beisan Zubi takes another run at it (she ran for the seat federally, and got squeezed out by Mike Morrice). The Greens are going to desperately target this seat too, but I'm not sure if they have any strong candidates to do it. Not sure if the Liberals will bother finding a good candidate, but if they do, we're in for a real dog fight.

I wonder if she would pass vetting now. In the last year or so she has tweeted some very inflammatory anti-Israel stuff that crosses a lot of lines and I doubt if Marit Stiles wants to have to defend that

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd imagine Beisan Zubi takes another run at it (she ran for the seat federally, and got squeezed out by Mike Morrice). The Greens are going to desperately target this seat too, but I'm not sure if they have any strong candidates to do it. Not sure if the Liberals will bother finding a good candidate, but if they do, we're in for a real dog fight.

I wonder if she would pass vetting now. In the last year or so she has tweeted some very inflammatory anti-Israel stuff that crosses a lot of lines and I doubt if Marit Stiles wants to have to defend that

Ahh, I guess that's why I'm the only floating her name. Wasn't aware of that.

[RogueBeaver]

Saint-Henri-Sainte-Anne will be held in March.

[DL]

Angela Simmonds is resigning as Liberal MLA in the Nova Scotia seat of Preston, which was designed to be majority Black. She was from the most leftwing end of the party and ran and for the leadership and lost to Zach Churchill who is reputed to be very abrasive. The byelection could be very competitive

[lilTommy]

Angela Simmonds is resigning as Liberal MLA in the Nova Scotia seat of Preston, which was designed to be majority Black. She was from the most leftwing end of the party and ran and for the leadership and lost to Zach Churchill who is reputed to be very abrasive. The byelection could be very competitive

Looking at the last polling, from November, the Liberals seem to be faltering, down about 10% from the last election. Interestingly it seems to be splitting between the NDP and the PCs. The NDP and Liberals are basically tied (25% to 27%) and the PCs were pulling out into a solid lead of 42%. BUT that was before the healthcare deaths of recent which has hit hard the PC government. This should be competitive since it should be a referendum on the current gov't, and a test for the two new opposition leaders.

[Hatman 🍁]

Preston is nowhere close to being "majority Black". It was designed to be a Black opportunity district, but the riding is still overwhelmingly White. There are only 3 dissemination areas in the riding that are a majority Black, and they correspond to the communities in the riding named Preston (Preston, East Preston and North Preston), which may be the source of the confusion. Interestingly, North Preston voted NDP in 2021, but Preston and East Preston voted Liberal.

 

[Benjamin Frank]

Preston is nowhere close to being "majority Black". It was designed to be a Black opportunity district, but the riding is still overwhelmingly White. There are only 3 dissemination areas in the riding that are a majority Black, and they correspond to the communities in the riding named Preston (Preston, East Preston and North Preston), which may be the source of the confusion. Interestingly, North Preston voted NDP in 2021, but Preston and East Preston voted Liberal.

In the 2021 election in this riding, the Liberals won with about 42% of the vote while the P.Cs and NDP tied at about 28%.

If the NDP nominate a high profile candidate, they likely have a good chance to win it. If it is accurate the Zach Churchill is faltering as Liberal Party leader, Claudia Chender seems to be a lot more mainstream than Garry Burrill and the NDP might have a chance to make a significant comeback in at least the Halifax Metro Area.

[RogueBeaver]

Portage-Lisgar is opening up this week.

[Hatman 🍁]

Might be interesting, considering the People's Party came in 2nd last time. I doubt the Mennonites are still pissed about COVID restrictions, though.

[mileslunn]

I suspect Portage-Lisgar is an easy Conservative win.  By interesting how PPC vote holds up and how much swings back, but my guess is most of it swings back to Tories.

[adma]

Yeah, given how Poilievre-era polling's going, it'd be more interesting to see how much support PPC's poised to shed than whether they're poised to consolidate on their '21 showing...

[RogueBeaver]

SHSA will be held on March 13. QS is running their previous candidate, PLQ the guy who ran against Massé.

[Benjamin Frank]

John Tory resigned as mayor of Toronto after admitting to an affair with a young staffer.

Also, John Horgan is stepping down as an MLA likely on St. Patrick's Day.

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto City council has to agree to a by-election. They could just appoint someone. Also, knowing Ford, he might want to meddle in things a bit. Whatever it takes to get his nephew elected mayor.

[adma]

Toronto City council has to agree to a by-election. They could just appoint someone. Also, knowing Ford, he might want to meddle in things a bit. Whatever it takes to get his nephew elected mayor.

Or if not Mikey, Kinga Surma, oh irony.

[DL]

Toronto City council has to agree to a by-election. They could just appoint someone. Also, knowing Ford, he might want to meddle in things a bit. Whatever it takes to get his nephew elected mayor.

Actually that’s not true the law says there must be a byelection. Council has no choice in the matter

[MaxQue]

Toronto City council has to agree to a by-election. They could just appoint someone. Also, knowing Ford, he might want to meddle in things a bit. Whatever it takes to get his nephew elected mayor.

A by-election is needed under the strong mayor law passed a few months ago.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, ok. Well, I guess there's some good in that strong mayor legislation.

[Holmes]

How about Toronto doesn’t elect a conservative mayor this time. Do that challenge.

[mileslunn]

How about Toronto doesn’t elect a conservative mayor this time. Do that challenge.

John Tory was very much a Red Tory so yes a Conservative, but most in the base today would not consider him one.  He was more like what party once was but is much less so today.

[Benjamin Frank]

P.C cabinet minister and Transit Minister (Associate Minister of Transportation) Stan Cho and Liberal M.P Nathaniel Erskine Smith have both announced they aren't running for Toronto Mayor.

These are the possibles according to wiki:
1.Ana Bailão, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022)
2.Brad Bradford, city councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)
3.Alejandra Bravo, city councillor for Davenport (2022–present), ran for Federal NDP in 2021.
4.Chloe Brown, third-place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election.
5.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former Liberal MP for Whitby (2015–2019)
6.Josh Colle, former city councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence (2010–2018) and former chair of the Toronto Transit Commission (2014–2018).
7.Michael Coteau, Liberal MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2013–2018)
8.Isabella Gamk, welfare and disability advocate, twenty-fifth place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election
9.Ari Goldkind, lawyer and fourth-place finisher in the 2014 mayoral election (also a national media loudmouth, but an informed loudmouth.)
10.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2014–2018)
11.Ahmed Hussen, federal Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–present) and Liberal MP for York South—Weston (2015–present)
12.Bhutila Karpoche, New Democratic MPP for Parkdale—High Park (2018–present)
13.Giorgio Mammoliti, former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic Party MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (but now very right wing.)
14.Denzil Minan-Wong, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2014–2022) and former city councillor for Don Valley East (1998–2022)
15.Kristyn Wong-Tam, New Democratic MPP for Toronto Centre (2022–present) and former city councillor for Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2010–2022)

[lilTommy]

P.C cabinet minister and Transit Minister (Associate Minister of Transportation) Stan Cho and Liberal M.P Nathaniel Erskine Smith have both announced they aren't running for Toronto Mayor.

These are the possibles according to wiki:
1.Ana Bailão, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022)
2.Brad Bradford, city councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)
3.Alejandra Bravo, city councillor for Davenport (2022–present), ran for Federal NDP in 2021.
4.Chloe Brown, third-place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election.
5.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former Liberal MP for Whitby (2015–2019)
6.Josh Colle, former city councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence (2010–2018) and former chair of the Toronto Transit Commission (2014–2018).
7.Michael Coteau, Liberal MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2013–2018)
8.Isabella Gamk, welfare and disability advocate, twenty-fifth place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election
9.Ari Goldkind, lawyer and fourth-place finisher in the 2014 mayoral election (also a national media loudmouth, but an informed loudmouth.)
10.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2014–2018)
11.Ahmed Hussen, federal Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–present) and Liberal MP for York South—Weston (2015–present)
12.Bhutila Karpoche, New Democratic MPP for Parkdale—High Park (2018–present)
13.Giorgio Mammoliti, former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic Party MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (but now very right wing.)
14.Denzil Minan-Wong, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2014–2022) and former city councillor for Don Valley East (1998–2022)
15.Kristyn Wong-Tam, New Democratic MPP for Toronto Centre (2022–present) and former city councillor for Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2010–2022)

Gil Penalosa (2nd place to Tory last year) has already said he will run; I'd rule out any of the NDP names, especially Wong-Tam she just won her seat.

I had heard Bailão wanted to run last year since Tory said he would not, then did and well lets say she was none to pleased and decided not to run at all. I'd say she might.
Bradford would be the Tory stand in so probably, Minan-Wong is another maybe. I'd venture at least a couple others from council might run

[Benjamin Frank]

P.C cabinet minister and Transit Minister (Associate Minister of Transportation) Stan Cho and Liberal M.P Nathaniel Erskine Smith have both announced they aren't running for Toronto Mayor.

These are the possibles according to wiki:
1.Ana Bailão, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022)
2.Brad Bradford, city councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)
3.Alejandra Bravo, city councillor for Davenport (2022–present), ran for Federal NDP in 2021.
4.Chloe Brown, third-place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election.
5.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former Liberal MP for Whitby (2015–2019)
6.Josh Colle, former city councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence (2010–2018) and former chair of the Toronto Transit Commission (2014–2018).
7.Michael Coteau, Liberal MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2013–2018)
8.Isabella Gamk, welfare and disability advocate, twenty-fifth place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election
9.Ari Goldkind, lawyer and fourth-place finisher in the 2014 mayoral election (also a national media loudmouth, but an informed loudmouth.)
10.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2014–2018)
11.Ahmed Hussen, federal Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–present) and Liberal MP for York South—Weston (2015–present)
12.Bhutila Karpoche, New Democratic MPP for Parkdale—High Park (2018–present)
13.Giorgio Mammoliti, former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic Party MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (but now very right wing.)
14.Denzil Minan-Wong, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2014–2022) and former city councillor for Don Valley East (1998–2022)
15.Kristyn Wong-Tam, New Democratic MPP for Toronto Centre (2022–present) and former city councillor for Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2010–2022)

Gil Penalosa (2nd place to Tory last year) has already said he will run; I'd rule out any of the NDP names, especially Wong-Tam she just won her seat.

I had heard Bailão wanted to run last year since Tory said he would not, then did and well lets say she was none to pleased and decided not to run at all. I'd say she might.
Bradford would be the Tory stand in so probably, Minan-Wong is another maybe. I'd venture at least a couple others from council might run

Sort of according to CBC's As It Happens there is a push-back against Tory resigning at all.

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-2-as-it-happens/clip/15966389-the-cruelest-lesson

At the 27:40 mark city Councilor John Burnside is interviewed and he said he spoke to Tory about reconsidering resigning, though possibly take a leave of absence during the investigation. Burnside said city councilor Francis Nunziata is in agreeement with him.

[lilTommy]

P.C cabinet minister and Transit Minister (Associate Minister of Transportation) Stan Cho and Liberal M.P Nathaniel Erskine Smith have both announced they aren't running for Toronto Mayor.

These are the possibles according to wiki:
1.Ana Bailão, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2017–2022) and former city councillor for Davenport (2010–2022)
2.Brad Bradford, city councillor for Beaches—East York (2018–present)
3.Alejandra Bravo, city councillor for Davenport (2022–present), ran for Federal NDP in 2021.
4.Chloe Brown, third-place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election.
5.Celina Caesar-Chavannes, former Liberal MP for Whitby (2015–2019)
6.Josh Colle, former city councillor for Eglinton—Lawrence (2010–2018) and former chair of the Toronto Transit Commission (2014–2018).
7.Michael Coteau, Liberal MP for Don Valley East (2021–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2013–2018)
8.Isabella Gamk, welfare and disability advocate, twenty-fifth place finisher in the 2022 mayoral election
9.Ari Goldkind, lawyer and fourth-place finisher in the 2014 mayoral election (also a national media loudmouth, but an informed loudmouth.)
10.Mitzie Hunter, Liberal MPP for Scarborough—Guildwood (2013–present), former provincial cabinet minister (2014–2018)
11.Ahmed Hussen, federal Minister of Housing and Diversity and Inclusion (2021–present) and Liberal MP for York South—Weston (2015–present)
12.Bhutila Karpoche, New Democratic MPP for Parkdale—High Park (2018–present)
13.Giorgio Mammoliti, former city councillor for York West (2000–2018), former New Democratic Party MPP for Yorkview (1990–1995) (but now very right wing.)
14.Denzil Minan-Wong, former deputy mayor of Toronto (2014–2022) and former city councillor for Don Valley East (1998–2022)
15.Kristyn Wong-Tam, New Democratic MPP for Toronto Centre (2022–present) and former city councillor for Toronto Centre-Rosedale (2010–2022)

Gil Penalosa (2nd place to Tory last year) has already said he will run; I'd rule out any of the NDP names, especially Wong-Tam she just won her seat.

I had heard Bailão wanted to run last year since Tory said he would not, then did and well lets say she was none to pleased and decided not to run at all. I'd say she might.
Bradford would be the Tory stand in so probably, Minan-Wong is another maybe. I'd venture at least a couple others from council might run

Sort of according to CBC's As It Happens there is a push-back against Tory resigning at all.

https://www.cbc.ca/listen/live-radio/1-2-as-it-happens/clip/15966389-the-cruelest-lesson

At the 27:40 mark city Councilor John Burnside is interviewed and he said he spoke to Tory about reconsidering resigning, though possibly take a leave of absence during the investigation. Burnside said city councilor Francis Nunziata is in agreeement with him.

I think Gary Crawford is also wanting Tory to stay, Pasternak is probably on that too.

AND Freeland also wants him to stay, Ford too based on what I heard last night that they both called him up.