Are the recent trends in Harrisburg and Grand Rapids underrated?
Devils30:
Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).
However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids and Harrisburg. These are not sexy cities but the GOP's recent slippage might completely screw them statewide. Kent County went from Trump +3 to Biden +6 to Dems by double digits in all of the statewide races. Ottawa also had a considerable swing to the left. In PA, Cumberland used to be one of the reddest counties in the state. It went from Trump +18 to Trump +10.5 to Oz +5 and Shapiro carried it by 8.
The GOP cannot slip in these places and win the state even with gigantic margins out of places like Fayette, Cambria, Greene.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin does not have anything like these two medium sized cities. Green Bay is much smaller than these two and not as educated. Dems' 2020 path is probably MI PA and one of GA/AZ instead of WI.
DS0816:
Quote from: Devils30 on December 29, 2022, 02:49:33 PM
Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).
However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …
Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.
There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.
To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.
Devils30:
Quote from: DS0816 on December 29, 2022, 08:11:14 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on December 29, 2022, 02:49:33 PM
Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).
However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …
Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.
There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.
To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.
The problem is Muskegon is about 1/4 the size of Kent and 60% of Ottawa (which is deep red but trending Dem).
progressive85:
The Harrisburg region spreading out to Hershey and parts of Amish Country, and in the western areas outside the state capital is a very nice area. I lived in Lehigh Valley and drove out there a few times for a support group - and I could tell it was very underrated as a nice place to live. It might become very trendy in the next decade to move there. (Plus, they've got more Sheetzes there (:
DS0816:
Quote from: Devils30 on December 30, 2022, 10:47:54 PM
Quote from: DS0816 on December 29, 2022, 08:11:14 PM
Quote from: Devils30 on December 29, 2022, 02:49:33 PM
Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).
However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …
Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.
There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.
To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.
The problem is Muskegon is about 1/4 the size of Kent and 60% of Ottawa (which is deep red but trending Dem).
Actually, this is good for the Republicans. Also good for them are the most recent trends in Saginaw and Genesee counties.
There is also Monroe County, bordering Michigan with Ohio, which has realigned to the Republicans.
From 1992 to 2012, Michigan was often ranked between the Democratic Party’s Nos. 13 to 16 best-performed states in presidential elections. Estimated 160 to 190 electoral votes to carry the state. Now, they have to have more than 225. And that is if it is a given election won by the Democrats.
Keep in mind: The 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, and a likewise pickup of Michigan, saw Joe Biden win the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 vs. the +2.78 percentage points from Michigan. That is a dramatic decline from the 1992 to 2012 Democrats, who used to carry the state by an average of between +5 to +6 above their national support.
Navigation
[0] Message Index
[#] Next page