Are the recent trends in Harrisburg and Grand Rapids underrated?

[Devils30]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids and Harrisburg. These are not sexy cities but the GOP's recent slippage might completely screw them statewide. Kent County went from Trump +3 to Biden +6 to Dems by double digits in all of the statewide races. Ottawa also had a considerable swing to the left. In PA, Cumberland used to be one of the reddest counties in the state. It went from Trump +18 to Trump +10.5 to Oz +5 and Shapiro carried it by 8.

The GOP cannot slip in these places and win the state even with gigantic margins out of places like Fayette, Cambria, Greene.  

Meanwhile, Wisconsin does not have anything like these two medium sized cities. Green Bay is much smaller than these two and not as educated. Dems' 2020 path is probably MI PA and one of GA/AZ instead of WI.

[DS0816]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …

Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.

There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.

To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.

[Devils30]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …

Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.

There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.

To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.

The problem is Muskegon is about 1/4 the size of Kent and 60% of Ottawa (which is deep red but trending Dem).

[progressive85]

The Harrisburg region spreading out to Hershey and parts of Amish Country, and in the western areas outside the state capital is a very nice area.  I lived in Lehigh Valley and drove out there a few times for a support group - and I could tell it was very underrated as a nice place to live.  It might become very trendy in the next decade to move there.  (Plus, they've got more Sheetzes there (:

[DS0816]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …

Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.

There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.

To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.

The problem is Muskegon is about 1/4 the size of Kent and 60% of Ottawa (which is deep red but trending Dem).

Actually, this is good for the Republicans. Also good for them are the most recent trends in Saginaw and Genesee counties.

There is also Monroe County, bordering Michigan with Ohio, which has realigned to the Republicans.

From 1992 to 2012, Michigan was often ranked between the Democratic Party’s Nos. 13 to 16 best-performed states in presidential elections. Estimated 160 to 190 electoral votes to carry the state. Now, they have to have more than 225. And that is if it is a given election won by the Democrats.

Keep in mind: The 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, and a likewise pickup of Michigan, saw Joe Biden win the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 vs. the +2.78 percentage points from Michigan. That is a dramatic decline from the 1992 to 2012 Democrats, who used to carry the state by an average of between +5 to +6 above their national support.

[Nyvin]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …

Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.

There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.

To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.

The problem is Muskegon is about 1/4 the size of Kent and 60% of Ottawa (which is deep red but trending Dem).

Actually, this is good for the Republicans. Also good for them are the most recent trends in Saginaw and Genesee counties.

There is also Monroe County, bordering Michigan with Ohio, which has realigned to the Republicans.

From 1992 to 2012, Michigan was often ranked between the Democratic Party’s Nos. 13 to 16 best-performed states in presidential elections. Estimated 160 to 190 electoral votes to carry the state. Now, they have to have more than 225. And that is if it is a given election won by the Democrats.

Keep in mind: The 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, and a likewise pickup of Michigan, saw Joe Biden win the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 vs. the +2.78 percentage points from Michigan. That is a dramatic decline from the 1992 to 2012 Democrats, who used to carry the state by an average of between +5 to +6 above their national support.

Monroe and Muskegon both have pretty low population growth though, if any at all lately.  Saginaw and Genesee have both been declining for a while now.   Kent and Ottawa meanwhile are two of the powerhouses of growth in the state, along with Washtenaw and Oakland.

This kinda reflects a national trend of Democrats gaining in growing areas, and Republicans depending on bigger and bigger margins from stagnant or shrinking areas.

Michigan probably won't trend to be safe D anytime soon, but it's not likely to become Lean R either with the way things are going.

[Progressive Pessimist]

We can't assume that the 2022 results will directly translate to the next presidential election, but there are reasons for concern for the GOP that aren't being focused on very much most likely because they aren't the most well-known areas. That, or the media just loves "Dems in disarray" more than "GOP in disarray" ones.

[DS0816]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids …

Neighboring Muskegon County, Michigan is trending toward the Republicans.

There is a lack of acknowledgment, and it is intentional, to not mention how some counties long-established as aligned to, say, Party A are trending toward Party B…and long-established as aligned to Party B trending toward Party A.

To get into this…that would also involve having to acknowledge realigning voting patterns in direct connection to each of the two major U.S. political parties. What some would prefer to do is only focus on racial demographics…and pretty much state that that explains it all.

The problem is Muskegon is about 1/4 the size of Kent and 60% of Ottawa (which is deep red but trending Dem).

Actually, this is good for the Republicans. Also good for them are the most recent trends in Saginaw and Genesee counties.

There is also Monroe County, bordering Michigan with Ohio, which has realigned to the Republicans.

From 1992 to 2012, Michigan was often ranked between the Democratic Party’s Nos. 13 to 16 best-performed states in presidential elections. Estimated 160 to 190 electoral votes to carry the state. Now, they have to have more than 225. And that is if it is a given election won by the Democrats.

Keep in mind: The 2020 Democratic pickup of the presidency, and a likewise pickup of Michigan, saw Joe Biden win the U.S. Popular Vote by +4.45 vs. the +2.78 percentage points from Michigan. That is a dramatic decline from the 1992 to 2012 Democrats, who used to carry the state by an average of between +5 to +6 above their national support.

Monroe and Muskegon both have pretty low population growth though, if any at all lately.  Saginaw and Genesee have both been declining for a while now.   Kent and Ottawa meanwhile are two of the powerhouses of growth in the state, along with Washtenaw and Oakland.

This kinda reflects a national trend of Democrats gaining in growing areas, and Republicans depending on bigger and bigger margins from stagnant or shrinking areas.

Michigan probably won't trend to be safe D anytime soon, but it's not likely to become Lean R either with the way things are going.

I categorize Michigan—along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—as a bellwether state. Meaning…the White House is not being won without this state (and the other two states). Next (sleeper) bellwether state: North Carolina. So, this would be three of the nation’s Top 10 populous states; a non-Top 10 state which is allocated with double-digit electoral votes; and a cumulative 60 electoral votes. (Given the electoral-vote scores in both 2016 and 2020….)

[pbrower2a]

Arizona could easily become the tipping-point state in 2024.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Dauphin County had voted Republican from 1860 to 2004, minus the Democratic landslides of 1936 and 1964. So yes, you are absolutely correct that the trend in the Harrisburg is not discussed enough here.

[mianfei]

Much of the media has (rightly) focused on Democratic gains in the Phoenix and Atlanta suburbs and GOP gains in the Mahoning Valley, parts of Florida (and Miami-Dade).

However, you see nearly no coverage of the recent Democratic trends in Grand Rapids and Harrisburg. These are not sexy cities but the GOP's recent slippage might completely screw them statewide. Kent County went from Trump +3 to Biden +6 to Dems by double digits in all of the statewide races. Ottawa also had a considerable swing to the left. In PA, Cumberland used to be one of the reddest counties in the state. It went from Trump +18 to Trump +10.5 to Oz +5 and Shapiro carried it by 8.

The GOP cannot slip in these places and win the state even with gigantic margins out of places like Fayette, Cambria, Greene.  

Meanwhile, Wisconsin does not have anything like these two medium sized cities. Green Bay is much smaller than these two and not as educated. Dems' 2020 path is probably MI PA and one of GA/AZ instead of WI.

I think so. It is why Pennsylvania has not shifted to the right like Ohio has, despite being one of the most “Appalachian” states and its western two-thirds being deeply tied culturally to Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia. It is true that Pennsylvania has never voted more Republican than Ohio since 1948, but the difference has usually been much smaller than in 2020.

Michigan is probably an easier hold for the Democrats than Pennsylvania. The obvious analogue to Appalachian coal country — the Upper Peninsula — has not become nearly so Republican because it has distinct resort town influences (Precinct maps of recent elections, which in the Midwest are often predictable and not particularly revealing, are more interesting in the Upper Peninsula, but I may be overstating its importance on a statewide scale). The trend in Kent County is certainly significant, as is the trend in Grand Traverse County in the northwest, a county which Obama never won.