The real fastest-growing ancestry group in the U.S. is White Americans not reporting an answer

[Biden his time]

The largest first ancestry groups reported by Americans. All responses are mutually exclusive because no matter how many ancestry groups someone identifies with, everyone when listing ancestries has to put one first and another one second (e.g. German, English; German is first).

Table with largest First Ancestry Group reported in American Community Survey 2012 to 2021
The 2020 ACS is considered unreliable due to COVID



Full size Image Link

Data from IPUMS and one-year American Community Surveys, except I merged many of the redundant categories (such as "Afro American", "African American", "Negro", "Colored" etc. all being merged into "African American").

The other special thing done here is taking the fast-growing number of people not reporting any ancestry, sorting them and classifying them by their racial group (including Asian subgroups such as Chinese, Asian Indian, Filipino etc.) and Hispanic origin (which also was split up by specific subgroups such as Mexican, Puerto Rican, Cuban etc.).

The racial group question and the Hispanic question both get response rates near 100% unlike the ancestry question so it is useful to fill in the gaps caused by less people filling in the ancestry question.

To illustrate this trend, in 2021, some 50 million Non-Hispanic White alone Americans left the question blank, a large jump from a decade ago when only 25 million people did this.

The "Other" category at the bottom does not refer to people who left the question unmarked, but just those ancestries that did not have enough people to make the cutoff (such as Colombian, Jamaican, Haitian, and Greek)

I only included ancestries in the chart above that had over 1 million people every single year and they are sorted by their 2021 numbers.


Once doing this, you can find that the largest and fastest-growing group is Non-Hispanic White alone Americans not marking any ancestry (aided by an increasing number of people who fill out the ancestry question with "White", "European" or other broad terms). A while ago, it was said that this was accounted for by an increasing number of "American" ancestry, but since 2012, the number of people marking down "American" has continuously decreased every year. These days they are now just not answering the question.

Thought this trend was interesting (although it is very obvious and it's easy to see why it's occurring) and I'd be interested to hear your comments.

[Del Tachi]

nation-statehood incoming

[King of Kensington]

It seems like a lot of US-born blacks of West Indian ancestry in the NYC area do not report an ancestry either. 

[Biden his time]

It seems like a lot of US-born blacks of West Indian ancestry in the NYC area do not report an ancestry either. 

Any such people were grouped into "African American" even though they might not ethnically be that

[King of Kensington]

Are blank responses more common in the Southern states where there is lower ethnic identity and awareness?

[Biden his time]

Are blank responses more common in the Southern states where there is lower ethnic identity and awareness?

The percentage of people who were "White" as per the above classification (including those who marked "European", "Caucasian", "White" etc. on the ancestry question)

On the five-year 2007-11 American Community Survey (Nationwide average 13.7%):

Image Link

On the five-year 2012-16 American Community Survey (Nationwide average 16.6%):

Image Link

Will update when the 2017-21 5-year ACS microdata comes out later this month

[King of Kensington]

If someone writes say "White" and "German" do they tally both?

I know they would exclude the most general ""European" if someone wrote European/German.

[Biden his time]

If someone writes say "White" and "German" do they tally both?

I know they would exclude the most general ""European" if someone wrote European/German.

They always tally both of them but the analysis I mentioned above focuses on the "First Ancestry" or primary ancestry mentioned, the first one written down since then you get totals equalling 100% and you can conduct further analysis without worrying about overlap

Most of the growth though is driven by entirely unmarked questions, people who's "First Ancestry" is nothing but they marked the race question with "White" and the Hispanic question with "Non-Hispanic".

The results of the 2020 census later this year will tell us more.

[Biden his time]

Two maps showcasing the largest primary ancestries over the past decades

Text inside the state refers to the percentage of the population of the state in that ancestry group, and states are also shaded based on the percentage of the population in the largest ancestry group. A lighter shade means a smaller plurality while a darker shade means a bigger one.


Below is the map for the 2007 - 2011 five-year American Community Survey

(13.7%) White / European -  Yellow
(11.2%) German - Red
(10.7%) African American - Blue
(10.0%) Mexican - Green
(7.2%) Irish - Orange
...
(5.9%) English - Gray (only Maine)
(4.3%) Italian - Purple
...
(1.0%) Filipino - Gray (only Hawaii)
...

Image Link


Below is the map for the 2012 - 2016 five-year American Community Survey

(16.6%) White / European -  Yellow
(10.7%) African American - Blue
(10.5%) Mexican - Green
(10.0%) German - Red
(6.8%) Irish - Orange
...
(4.1%) Italian - Purple
...
(1.0%) Filipino - Gray (only Hawaii)
...

Image Link


German, Italian, English, and Irish markers across the Midwest and Northeast give way to apathy about ancestry, meanwhile in the Southern United States stagnant African American populations are overtaken by the regression of the "American" group that begins to be replaced with "Not reported".

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

I’m really shocked Hawai’i is Filipino, not Japanese

[King of Kensington]

Weird to see "White/European" plurality in NYS.

[Biden his time]

I’m really shocked Hawai’i is Filipino, not Japanese

2007-11 ACS: Filipino 17.72%, Japanese 17.70%
2012-16 ACS: Filipino 17.74%, Japanese 16.09%

It likely flipped in the late 2000s due to the rapidly shrinking Japanese Hawaiian population.
Of course the Japanese decline also mirrors the nationwide change.

[Biden his time]

Weird to see "White/European" plurality in NYS.

Probably will only become a stronger plurality from here on out
Upstate New York is full of mixed European populations.

2007-11 ACS: Italian 11.5%, White 9.5%, African American 9.2%, Irish 8.7%, German 6.8%
2012-16 ACS: White 12.0%, Italian 10.3%, African American 9.1%, Irish 8.0%, German 6.0%

Interestingly the Puerto Rican population in the state shrank relatively quickly between 2009 and 2014, going from 1 million to 974 thousand. I imagine that reversed due to Hurricane Maria, but the overarching trends for the Puerto Rican population before that storm were negative.

[King of Kensington]

There's a lot more Filipino than Japanese immigrants in Hawaii.  More single-race Filipinos than Japanese, not sure if there's more with Japanese ancestry than Filipinos.

[King of Kensington]

Probably will only become a stronger plurality from here on out Upstate New York is full of mixed European populations.

Yeah IIRC German and Irish ancestry were pretty much at par in Upstate NY, Italian close behind.  More German in Western NY, more Irish in eastern NY.

In NYC area, Italian is the most common European ancestry.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I’m really shocked Hawai’i is Filipino, not Japanese

Filipino has been #1 in HI ever since I started paying attention. Not at all surprising considering historical and recent immigration patterns from different Pacific Rim countries.

There's a lot more Filipino than Japanese immigrants in Hawaii.  More single-race Filipinos than Japanese, not sure if there's more with Japanese ancestry than Filipinos.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Weird to see "White/European" plurality in NYS.

Probably will only become a stronger plurality from here on out
Upstate New York is full of mixed European populations.

2007-11 ACS: Italian 11.5%, White 9.5%, African American 9.2%, Irish 8.7%, German 6.8%
2012-16 ACS: White 12.0%, Italian 10.3%, African American 9.1%, Irish 8.0%, German 6.0%

Interestingly the Puerto Rican population in the state shrank relatively quickly between 2009 and 2014, going from 1 million to 974 thousand. I imagine that reversed due to Hurricane Maria, but the overarching trends for the Puerto Rican population before that storm were negative.

I’m really shocked Hawai’i is Filipino, not Japanese

Filipino has been #1 in HI ever since I started paying attention. Not at all surprising considering historical and recent immigration patterns from different Pacific Rim countries.

There's a lot more Filipino than Japanese immigrants in Hawaii.  More single-race Filipinos than Japanese, not sure if there's more with Japanese ancestry than Filipinos.

Fascinating, I never knew Filipinos were migrating that much, I assumed based on the fact that most Japanese politicians have been Japanese in ancestry. A rough overlook and Hawaii’s senate is still about 1/3 Japanese and There’s only 2 Filipino state senators (based mostly on last names so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). Of Hawaii’s 7 senators in its history 3 have been Japanese

I don’t know much about the ethnopolitics of Hawai’i but there seems to be a preference for Japanese politicians.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

nation-statehood incoming

Yuck! Pfaugh!

[King of Kensington]

There's a lot more Filipino than Japanese immigrants in Hawaii.  More single-race Filipinos than Japanese, not sure if there's more with Japanese ancestry than Filipinos.

From 2021 ACS, 1-year estimates:

Asian alone

Filipino  213,337
Japanese  166,881

Asian alone or in combination

Filipino  370,594
Japanese  314,102

[RINO Tom]

An unfortunate trend.  Treating “American” as an ethnicity - especially for European-descended White Americans - is both historically illiterate and morally dubious toward American Indian groups.

EDIT: This is also why it's cringy and annoying when Europeans try to gatekeep Americans saying they are "Irish" or "German" or "Italian" or whatever ... uh duh, morons, we aren't saying we are citizens of your country or "as European" as you are just because we are using ethnicity in the proper way and acknowledging that our ancestors did not originate on this continent.

[Biden his time]

An unfortunate trend.  Treating “American” as an ethnicity - especially for European-descended White Americans -

"American" is falling as a share of population and has been for several years. The group that is rising is "White", "European", and Nonresponses.

is both historically illiterate and morally dubious toward American Indian groups.

Is it really though? Let's say you're an Appalachian white guy who doesn't know any of his ancestors and you get this census form? What are you gonna write down? People are getting more distant from their European ancestors, especially since European immigration has slowed to a crawl, and so this consolidation around a general "White" or "European" is happening.

EDIT: This is also why it's cringy and annoying when Europeans try to gatekeep Americans saying they are "Irish" or "German" or "Italian" or whatever ... uh duh, morons, we aren't saying we are citizens of your country or "as European" as you are just because we are using ethnicity in the proper way and acknowledging that our ancestors did not originate on this continent.

No disagreements here

[RINO Tom]

^ I think for a form like this, somebody should default to his/her surname origin or simply English if he/she is REALLY that unsure of what the plurality ancestral component would be.

[Indy Texas]

Virtually no non-immigrant White Americans have a single coherent national/cultural identity. The only ones who do are descendants of post-1900 immigrants who settled in ethnic enclaves in Northern cities and stayed there (Irish in Boston, Italians on Long Island, Poles in Chicago, etc).

Maybe your surname is English/Irish/German/etc but if you actually go back through your family tree that nationality is a mere fraction of the family by virtue of so many generations of people from different backgrounds marrying each other.

It's absurd to expect someone to identify with a country a small sliver of their ancestors came from, where no one in their family has lived for centuries, and that they have probably never even visited or know anything about.

[King of Kensington]

"American" is falling as a share of population and has been for several years. The group that is rising is "White", "European", and Nonresponses.

There's also bit of an uptick in English ancestry responses and that corresponds with the decline in "American" responses.

There were 24 million English responses (#3) in the 2000 census.  32 million according to ACS, edging out Irish.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

"American" is falling as a share of population and has been for several years. The group that is rising is "White", "European", and Nonresponses.

There's also bit of an uptick in English ancestry responses and that corresponds with the decline in "American" responses.

There were 24 million English responses (#3) in the 2000 census.  32 million according to ACS, edging out Irish.

*Black and Tans plays in the distance but slowly gets louder and closer*