What would it take for California to vote Republican again?

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Higher turnout in 2020 benefitting federal Republicans relative to 2016 and an R swing in CA-GOV from 2018 (and/or the 2021 recall) to 2022 caused almost entirely by lower turnout in D-leaning areas. The latter is to be expected during a D president midterm.

It is possible in the case of the 2022 election that longtime Democrats just refused to vote instead of vote Republicans, this isn't unheard of. The voter turnout went down for Republicans as well.
Also shouldn't higher turnout in 2020 help the Democrats? Republicans got their highest votes ever from CA that year and so did Democrats.

For 2022 CA-GOV turnout I only really paid attention to select D-leaning suburbs outside of the big cities, but it's probably also true in the core cities and rurals too.

Re: wait, is CA going to SWING R?

My theory: Record turnout = low propensity voters actually voting. In California's case, these voters are probably conservatives. Combined with Trump's improvement with Hispanics and Asians and you have California shifting towards republicans.

Edit: But also, California going from D+23 in 2012 to D+30 in 2016 to D+29 in 2020 doesn't seem that notable.

Edit 2: And it seems like there's substantially less third party vote this year. Quite possible some of those voters shifted to Trump.

Hot take: increased GOTV efforts resulted in right-leaning/anti-establishment, low-propensity Latino and Asian voters who normally wouldn’t bother voting in a Titanium D state to turn out.

I mean things can change in ways no one could expect 20-30 years from now

No one expects the Sun and Moon timeline 2036 presidential map, which tbf doesn't seem that likely given coalition trends since the timeline's writing.

[Ragnaroni]

Higher turnout in 2020 benefitting federal Republicans relative to 2016 and an R swing in CA-GOV from 2018 (and/or the 2021 recall) to 2022 caused almost entirely by lower turnout in D-leaning areas. The latter is to be expected during a D president midterm.

It is possible in the case of the 2022 election that longtime Democrats just refused to vote instead of vote Republicans, this isn't unheard of. The voter turnout went down for Republicans as well.
Also shouldn't higher turnout in 2020 help the Democrats? Republicans got their highest votes ever from CA that year and so did Democrats.

For 2022 CA-GOV turnout I only really paid attention to select D-leaning suburbs outside of the big cities, but it's probably also true in the core cities and rurals too.

Re: wait, is CA going to SWING R?

My theory: Record turnout = low propensity voters actually voting. In California's case, these voters are probably conservatives. Combined with Trump's improvement with Hispanics and Asians and you have California shifting towards republicans.

Edit: But also, California going from D+23 in 2012 to D+30 in 2016 to D+29 in 2020 doesn't seem that notable.

Edit 2: And it seems like there's substantially less third party vote this year. Quite possible some of those voters shifted to Trump.

Hot take: increased GOTV efforts resulted in right-leaning/anti-establishment, low-propensity Latino and Asian voters who normally wouldn’t bother voting in a Titanium D state to turn out.

I mean things can change in ways no one could expect 20-30 years from now

No one expects the Sun and Moon timeline 2036 presidential map, which tbf doesn't seem that likely given coalition trends since the timeline's writing.

That is fair. They do bring up a good point with pro-incumbent swing. We'll have to wait and see if there's a R or D trend. Very interested in what's the deal with Imperial county. It is interesting to see the trend map built in the website. L.A, Orange, San Bernardino, Tulare, Glenn, Monterey and a bunch in the Bay Area are "trending" republican according to the map.

[Xing]

A complete political realignment and significant policy changes from both parties. The type of trend we saw does not suggest a 29-point swing in 4-8 years is in the cards.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Outside of one or two comments, there is a serious lack of discussion regarding the comparatively low turnout in 2022.

Just like 2014 when there was also a Dem midterm, turnout was terrible in bluer communities and Democrats up and down the ballot really underperformed. Though unlike 2014, Dems kept close margins in OC and the IE which I think says a lot about the predicament of California Republicans.

[Cyrusman]

This is my home state (born in SD, lived in OC the last 14 years) so I will answer to the best of my abilities.

1.) Absolutely horrendous, awful Democrat nominee who has no charisma, minimal excitement, and has at least 1-2 skeletons in their closet.

2.) Youngish GOP nominee who is very charismatic , appears moderate on social issues, charming, preferably Asian or Hispanic, and appeals very very well to soccer moms/ chardonnay wine drinking moms ( think Glenn Younkin, I know he is white, but he appealed very well to these females)

3.) A unique situation in California that plays right into the GOPs hands (like crime in NY). Lets say, crime, southern border crisis, something else that plays preferable to Republican stances occurs in California at a BAD rate in a way that no one can deny.

4.) A heavy R leaning year in which either a Democrat incumbent is an absolute disaster, or there is an awful recession.

5.) Weak turnout within Los Angeles County from Democrats. I think a GOP nominee needs to hit at least 40% in LA County to win statewide, and even that is probably the bare minimum. Has there ever been a statewide victory in CA for the GOP without securing at least 40% in LA County?

All of this TOGETHER "may" give the GOP a "punchers" chance, and even then they would be slight underdogs. Its a very difficult state for them to win. I can see the GOP running it up and doing very well in San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura counties along with the whole Central Valley. Heck, I can even see a GOP doing decently in Sacramento in a "great GOP year". The problem for them is the Bay Area and LA County.

[Ragnaroni]

This is my home state (born in SD, lived in OC the last 14 years) so I will answer to the best of my abilities.

1.) Absolutely horrendous, awful Democrat nominee who has no charisma, minimal excitement, and has at least 1-2 skeletons in their closet.

2.) Youngish GOP nominee who is very charismatic , appears moderate on social issues, charming, preferably Asian or Hispanic, and appeals very very well to soccer moms/ chardonnay wine drinking moms ( think Glenn Younkin, I know he is white, but he appealed very well to these females)

3.) A unique situation in California that plays right into the GOPs hands (like crime in NY). Lets say, crime, southern border crisis, something else that plays preferable to Republican stances occurs in California at a BAD rate in a way that no one can deny.

4.) A heavy R leaning year in which either a Democrat incumbent is an absolute disaster, or there is an awful recession.

5.) Weak turnout within Los Angeles County from Democrats. I think a GOP nominee needs to hit at least 40% in LA County to win statewide, and even that is probably the bare minimum. Has there ever been a statewide victory in CA for the GOP without securing at least 40% in LA County?

All of this TOGETHER "may" give the GOP a "punchers" chance, and even then they would be slight underdogs. Its a very difficult state for them to win. I can see the GOP running it up and doing very well in San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura counties along with the whole Central Valley. Heck, I can even see a GOP doing decently in Sacramento in a "great GOP year". The problem for them is the Bay Area and LA County.

This seems the most likely case to me as well but it still feels within the 5% range of losing.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

5.) Weak turnout within Los Angeles County from Democrats. I think a GOP nominee needs to hit at least 40% in LA County to win statewide, and even that is probably the bare minimum. Has there ever been a statewide victory in CA for the GOP without securing at least 40% in LA County?

In 1868, Grant won California while getting 37.7% in Los Angeles. A lot of caveats of course, but you did ask

[pbrower2a]

I mean things can change in ways no one could expect 20-30 years from now

I remember when West Virginia was the sort of state that went to Republicans only in monumental landslides and Vermont was the sort of state that went to Democrats only in monumental landslides. Both states are the opposite now.