2023 UK Local Elections

[Epaminondas]

Labour will have a lot of turf to defend when things do go south for them electorally, won't they?

What a strange take, doesn't this apply to every political wave?

Labour has until Jan 2025 to consolidate before the GE. 20 long months of graft and spin by the Tories, who will have little accountability on their way out.

[Epaminondas]

And the next batch of councilors up is the 2021 crop, which if nothing else was a Conservative wave...

I imagine the 2020 council cohort will fall back into its standard cycle pattern, after a 3 year mandate instead of 4?

Looking at the 2016-2021 results, despite the mini Tory ripple that year, it's slim pickings for Labour: not even a dozen targets.
Dudley, Solihull, Sheffield, Stockport, Wirral, Walsall, Northumberland, Southampton, Plymouth, Derby, Corwall... is there much hope for anything else?

Others have commented the Tories could easily fall into labours 2010 trap of assuming they’ll waltz back into Government.

Probably not symmetric though: the Tory voter base will come out regardless, while repeated Labour wins require either to cater to wealthier, older voters (like in 2001) or for fickle young voters to come out twice (which has... never happened?).

[Epaminondas]

It has been noted that two people kicked out of Labour for AS got elected for other parties - for the Greens in Wirral and the Tories in Stockton.

Or the charges were trumped up enough to be obvious to voters? Now that Corbyn is gone we no longer need to pussyfoot about the real target of that campaign.

[Epaminondas]

Stragglers in Northern Ireland are voting for the UK local elections today, after a fortnight of recovering from the coronation hangover one way or another.

The stakes may seem low (and indeed it seems largely ignored in the papers), however we could see the DUP kicked in the teeth again and send fewer councillors than Sinn Féin for the first time in history.
This would reveal their do-nothing policy in Stormont is an electoral loser for the first time since they started the gridlock over 12 months ago.

[Epaminondas]

Shinners nearing a gain of 10 points across the board.

Just like the 2020 general election in Ireland, their surge may have caught them surprise - in several wards, all SF candidates were elected on the first count, missing out on a possible extra seat.

[Epaminondas]

What happens to a second preference vote going to an already elected candidate?

Is the whole ballot discarded (on the basis that a the voter should be satisfied) or is the third preference considered (on the basis that the vote has still made no difference?)

[Epaminondas]

Just like the 2020 general election in Ireland, the SF surge may have caught them surprise - in several wards, all their candidates were elected on the first count, missing out on a possible extra seat.

Case in point in Black Mountain ward in Belfast: SF held 6 of 7 seats with 60% in 2019, ran the same 6, and today obtained 73% (!), enough for a full slate if transfers are ordinary.

https://twitter.com/Ireland_Votes2/status/1659558082635087872?cxt=HHwWgIC--ZHS94cuAAAA

[Epaminondas]

SDLP have now lost seats in every round of NI local elections since 1993. That takes some doing.

From 120 to... under 50? The SDLP is unfortunately ill-equiped to deal with recent event: as a functional managerial and transactional party, their appeal is limited when the government can't even open.

Regarding your stat, if it weren't for a brief reprieve under Mike Nesbitt in 2014, the UUP would have an even more impressive record: they dropped from 197 in 1993 to barely 60 today, which is a loss of over 4 councillors per year.

[Epaminondas]

Derry & Strabane seems to be the only place where we'll see UUP taking seats off the DUP, given that Alliance is too weak there to siphon off the soft unionist vote.

Everywhere else, the UUP is losing their game of musical chairs.

Donaldson implies that if SF tops the vote, the UUP should disband to avoid "splitting the unionist vote", despite 1) the DUP being themselves a splinter group of the UUP and 2) the biggest obstacle to the DUP is not another party but apathy.

He's as delusional as GOP voters and their RINOs, inventing themselves fifth columns rather than looking into the mirror.

[Epaminondas]

East of the Bann the DUP has actually grown due to cannibalising the UUP's share.
We'll see many ostensible UUP -> SF seats, which are in fact UUP -> DUP -> SF seats.

The narrative this sets will not help unblock the Assembly.

[Epaminondas]

While the DUP are indeed holding up well, and this spells more pain for NI in the coming years, they seem to be running out of margins. Last election the UUP bore the brunt of the unionism loss and took the final seats, but this time this election the UUP is being wiped out and the DUP is snatching up final seats.

This is not sustainable, and the next election the DUP should start going the way of the UUP.

One of the problems for the UUP is that Doug Beattie has the right strategy, it's just the right strategy for the UUP in 2013. The voters they've lost to the Alliance since have no reason to come back.

To me the existence of the UUP is predicated on the existence of a large number of government-minded unionist voters. But since 2016, unionism has fallen down a rabbit hole of persecution complex, not unlike the GOP in the US, and only the DUP feeds this resentment.

I see some Alliance voters being nationalists in Eastern wards where SF has a poor reputation.

[Epaminondas]

Good map on Ireland Votes.

Little-Pengelly's on the BBC repeating Jeffrey Donaldson's talking point: blame the UUP for "splitting up unionism" and "survive despite everyone in the media throwing the kitchen sink at the DUP". No plans for any changes around the Protocol, or shuttering Stormont.

I suspect the goodwill towards this persecution complex will dry up fast.

[Epaminondas]

What are the socio-economic differences between Alliance voters and the remaining UUP base?

[Epaminondas]

A SF government coming to power not off nationalism but cost of Living and especially Rent/Housing Prices, and rationally putting their voters and population as paramount, would certainly be a slap to NI SF voters who deep down believe in a quick fix solution to their many day-to-day problems.

You know the lay of the land. Have you ever come to Ireland?

While such a core platform betrayal would indeed pose the greatest threat to a United Irish movement, there really is no danger of an SF majority in the Republic in the foreseeable future.
The conservative cordon set up by FG and FF did not break after the 2020 wave, and now that the precedent is set, these parties will derive no advantage from accepting an unpredictable governing partner over their natural ally.

[Epaminondas]

A few stats on extreme distributions for each party:

Sinn Féin
6 seats: 1 ward
5 seats: 2
4 seats: 6
3 seats: 14

DUP
3 seats: 9

Alliance
3 seats: 2

UUP
2 seats: 5

Next election will almost certainly yield a sharp fall for the DUP, who are still defending deep orange territory, while alliance are more evenly spread out.
Meanwhile, the UUP losses could taper off as they keep a single seat in ~50 wards.

[Epaminondas]

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there)

What's the story? Shenanigans at the count centre?

[Epaminondas]

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there)

What's the story? Shenanigans at the count centre?

They didn’t distribute the DUP surplus.

Surprising oversight, but little chance it changes the outcome.
From the DUP transfers I've looked at closely, the TUV seems to be the only significant direction. Less than 1/3 goes to the UUP, and only a tiny fraction anywhere else.

Do these transfer stats exist publicly for 2019 or Assembly 2022? It's not in the British Parliament summary, but the parties must have those numbers.

[Epaminondas]

How does a petition work? Are the ballots not certified?

Disappointed if Alliance go to court and stick the shoe in despite their increasing success each election. Shows a lack of confidence in their project, and will turn me off from listing them next time.

They have rich unionist hunting grounds East of the Bann, Foyle is ground zero for nationalism, and the SDLP has been their closest legislative collaborator.

[Epaminondas]

Another election result in NI (in Ards/North Down) has been queried, and is being looked into.

Is this Bangor West, where Alliance lost out to the Greens by 11 votes on the 10th round? Can't see any other points of contention.

If so, Alliance is really turning into the party of vexatious litigation.