2023 UK Local Elections
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Author Topic: 2023 UK Local Elections  (Read 18027 times)
Epaminondas
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« Reply #500 on: May 21, 2023, 06:53:18 AM »

A few stats on extreme distributions for each party:

Sinn Féin
6 seats: 1 ward
5 seats: 2
4 seats: 6
3 seats: 14

DUP
3 seats: 9

Alliance
3 seats: 2

UUP
2 seats: 5

Next election will almost certainly yield a sharp fall for the DUP, who are still defending deep orange territory, while alliance are more evenly spread out.
Meanwhile, the UUP losses could taper off as they keep a single seat in ~50 wards.
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AustralianSwingVoter
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« Reply #501 on: May 21, 2023, 07:25:33 AM »

If anyone could possibly explain what on earth is up with Banbridge and the UUP, as I’ve always rather wondered that!
I’m not completely sure, but it’s a mostly unionist area (better than the demographics would suggest, I’ve seen some suggestion it’s one of the least sectarian parts of NI with a very rare Catholic crossover vote) and quite a bit more prosperous than most areas nearby (certainly in the rest of the DEA and constituency). The UUP have long been strong in the area, having a majority on the old Banbridge council until 2001, unusually regaining a lead over the DUP in 2011, doing better in 2014 after the amalgamation, and then still comfortably leading the DUP in 2019.

So basically, it’s an area that looks favourable to begin with but the lack of trend to the DUP in the last couple of decades suggests a strong local organisation/incumbency specifically in that ward (perhaps benefitting from the council amalgamation).

I have read before that the UUP vote in Banbridge held up in Westminster and Assembly elections too. I presume there’s a similar situation in Antrim Town and Ballyclare, with the endurance of the UUP vote in South Antrim until the most recent elections.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #502 on: May 21, 2023, 08:22:13 AM »

A few stats on extreme distributions for each party:

Sinn Féin
6 seats: 1 ward
5 seats: 2
4 seats: 6
3 seats: 14

DUP
3 seats: 9

Alliance
3 seats: 2

UUP
2 seats: 5

Next election will almost certainly yield a sharp fall for the DUP, who are still defending deep orange territory, while alliance are more evenly spread out.
Meanwhile, the UUP losses could taper off as they keep a single seat in ~50 wards.

Are the SDLP now on more than one councillor anywhere?
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YL
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« Reply #503 on: May 21, 2023, 08:46:16 AM »

A few stats on extreme distributions for each party:

Sinn Féin
6 seats: 1 ward
5 seats: 2
4 seats: 6
3 seats: 14

DUP
3 seats: 9

Alliance
3 seats: 2

UUP
2 seats: 5

Next election will almost certainly yield a sharp fall for the DUP, who are still defending deep orange territory, while alliance are more evenly spread out.
Meanwhile, the UUP losses could taper off as they keep a single seat in ~50 wards.

Are the SDLP now on more than one councillor anywhere?

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there) and Foyleside also in Derry, and Newry and Downpatrick in NMD.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #504 on: May 21, 2023, 09:00:04 AM »

Something that I've not seen mentioned much, which is a surprise as it's an obvious observation, is that the popular vote figures are strikingly similar to those of last year's Assembly elections, despite the turnout difference.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #505 on: May 21, 2023, 11:08:13 AM »

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there)

What's the story? Shenanigans at the count centre?
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JimJamUK
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« Reply #506 on: May 21, 2023, 11:31:22 AM »

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there)
What's the story? Shenanigans at the count centre?
They didn’t distribute the DUP surplus despite it being theoretically possible to change who was elected. The DUP surplus was 160, and there were 3 candidates left in the count. 1 SDLP candidate was 10 votes short of a quota along with another SDLP candidate and an Alliance candidate who were much further off. The difference between the latter 2 was 49 votes, so theoretically (but not practically) possible for the Alliance to catch the 2nd SDLP candidate on DUP transfers.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #507 on: May 21, 2023, 11:46:03 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2023, 11:53:32 AM by Epaminondas »

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there)
What's the story? Shenanigans at the count centre?
They didn’t distribute the DUP surplus.

Surprising oversight, but little chance it changes the outcome.
From the DUP transfers I've looked at closely, the TUV seems to be the only significant direction. Less than 1/3 goes to the UUP, and only a tiny fraction anywhere else.

Do these transfer stats exist publicly for 2019 or Assembly 2022? It's not in the British Parliament summary, but the parties must have those numbers.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #508 on: May 21, 2023, 12:53:56 PM »

They have three in Ballyarnett in Derry, and two in each of four DEAs: Waterside (though as you will be aware there is some doubt about the count there)
What's the story? Shenanigans at the count centre?
They didn’t distribute the DUP surplus despite it being theoretically possible to change who was elected. The DUP surplus was 160, and there were 3 candidates left in the count. 1 SDLP candidate was 10 votes short of a quota along with another SDLP candidate and an Alliance candidate who were much further off. The difference between the latter 2 was 49 votes, so theoretically (but not practically) possible for the Alliance to catch the 2nd SDLP candidate on DUP transfers.

I'm less certain it's an academic question. Much of the DUP surplus was voters who originally first preferenced the UUP, who transfer rather better to the Alliance than first-preference DUP voters do. Moreover, in the neighbouring DEA the terminal DEA transfers had a choice between Alliance and SF. About 1% went to SF, 30% went to the Alliance and 70% didn't transfer. 30% is about what the Alliance needed in Waterside.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #509 on: May 27, 2023, 10:49:37 AM »

Of the two queried NI counts, one (in Belfast) has been settled with the expected result confirmed.

The other (in Derry/Strabane) could well be heading for an electoral petition.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #510 on: May 27, 2023, 11:49:24 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2023, 11:52:44 AM by Epaminondas »

How does a petition work? Are the ballots not certified?

Disappointed if Alliance go to court and stick the shoe in despite their increasing success each election. Shows a lack of confidence in their project, and will turn me off from listing them next time.

They have rich unionist hunting grounds East of the Bann, Foyle is ground zero for nationalism, and the SDLP has been their closest legislative collaborator.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #511 on: May 27, 2023, 12:02:42 PM »

How does a petition work? Are the ballots not certified?

Disappointed if Alliance go to court and stick the shoe in despite their increasing success each election. Shows a lack of confidence in their project, and will turn me off from listing them next time.

They have rich unionist hunting grounds East of the Bann, Foyle is ground zero for nationalism, and the SDLP has been their closest legislative collaborator.

A petition is a lawsuit against the certified election result. It seems in this case, through, it would be a joint lawsuit between the Alliance and the Electoral Office of Northern Ireland, which isn't happy that its rules on counts were not respected. Being sued is the only legal way for them to solve the mistake.
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #512 on: May 27, 2023, 05:05:17 PM »

Yes, the petition isn't sour grapes, it's a consequence of the returning officer possibly having declared the wrong candidates elected.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #513 on: June 01, 2023, 06:14:46 AM »

Another election result in NI (in Ards/North Down) has been queried, and is being looked into.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #514 on: June 01, 2023, 08:10:53 AM »

Another election result in NI (in Ards/North Down) has been queried, and is being looked into.
Is this Bangor West, where Alliance lost out to the Greens by 11 votes on the 10th round? Can't see any other points of contention.

If so, Alliance is really turning into the party of vexatious litigation.
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YL
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« Reply #515 on: June 01, 2023, 08:51:23 AM »

Another election result in NI (in Ards/North Down) has been queried, and is being looked into.
Is this Bangor West, where Alliance lost out to the Greens by 11 votes on the 10th round? Can't see any other points of contention.

If so, Alliance is really turning into the party of vexatious litigation.

No, it's Ards Peninsula.  The issue is similar to that in Derry: the count in this 6 member DEA was declared concluded when five candidates had reached quota and two others (one UUP, one Sinn Féin) were still in the race short of quota with some outstanding surpluses not transferred.  However most of the potential transfers were DUP ones and the UUP candidate was already well ahead, so we can be confident that the right candidates were elected.  Hence there is unlikely to be a challenge here.

Sorry, but the Derry case is not "vexatious litigation".  The count was not carried out correctly and we don't know for sure which candidates should have been elected.  The declared runner up is entirely within their rights to challenge this.
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YL
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« Reply #516 on: June 06, 2023, 12:04:36 PM »

Alliance have indeed lodged an election petition against the Waterside result.
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PSOL
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« Reply #517 on: June 15, 2023, 01:05:28 AM »

This is more of a victory for Sinn Fein than it is for the nominal left or republicanism. The nominal left only gained by 9 seats by my estimate, and while I am not a fan of PBP or the CWI/Labour Alternative,  their loss will be felt.

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #518 on: June 23, 2023, 07:24:44 AM »

All the countermanded polls from last month have been completed. This leaves the final scores for the main parties in this set of elections as Tories down 1067 on 2019, Labour up 539, LibDems up 410.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #519 on: August 09, 2023, 06:34:42 AM »

Alliance have indeed lodged an election petition against the Waterside result.

The requested recount has now taken place, and resulted in the SDLP holding onto their seat by just a handful of votes - so the council remains an Alliance-free zone.
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