2023 UK Local Elections

[CumbrianLefty]

SDLP have now lost seats in every round of NI local elections since 1993. That takes some doing.

[Epaminondas]

SDLP have now lost seats in every round of NI local elections since 1993. That takes some doing.

From 120 to... under 50? The SDLP is unfortunately ill-equiped to deal with recent event: as a functional managerial and transactional party, their appeal is limited when the government can't even open.

Regarding your stat, if it weren't for a brief reprieve under Mike Nesbitt in 2014, the UUP would have an even more impressive record: they dropped from 197 in 1993 to barely 60 today, which is a loss of over 4 councillors per year.

[YL]

These results look very bad for the SDLP - the only thing saving them from obliteration in much of the west is SF under-nomination. Not bad for the Alliance but some way short of expectations, and whilst they'll make gains around Belfast they might actually lose seats in the west. The DUP have in many places held up fairly well, whilst the UUP are getting a shellacking.

I wonder whether Alliance have been hit a little bit themselves by the SF surge in a few places (e.g. Waterside and Faughan in Derry)?

The SDLP, like the UUP, need to come up with new answers to the question of what they are for if they want to avert the decline.

[Torrain]

The DUP have in many places held up fairly well, whilst the UUP are getting a shellacking.

Anecdotally know a number of UUP —> Alliance voters, will be interesting if that ends up being part of the story here. Wasn’t sure if that was a local phenomenon, or if it would be replicated more broadly.

[Epaminondas]

Derry & Strabane seems to be the only place where we'll see UUP taking seats off the DUP, given that Alliance is too weak there to siphon off the soft unionist vote.

Everywhere else, the UUP is losing their game of musical chairs.

Donaldson implies that if SF tops the vote, the UUP should disband to avoid "splitting the unionist vote", despite 1) the DUP being themselves a splinter group of the UUP and 2) the biggest obstacle to the DUP is not another party but apathy.

He's as delusional as GOP voters and their RINOs, inventing themselves fifth columns rather than looking into the mirror.

[JimJamUK]

Anecdotally know a number of UUP —> Alliance voters, will be interesting if that ends up being part of the story here. Wasn’t sure if that was a local phenomenon, or if it would be replicated more broadly.

It’s a bit complicated. The Alliance are traditionally seen as the party for moderate non-capital unionists, but more recently they’ve positioned themselves a bit closer to the nationalist parties and their support is a lot more diverse than it used to be on constitutional issues. The UUP’s attempt in recent years to position itself as the home to more progressive unionists has failed in large part due to the Alliance already occupying that territory and usually doing so more convincingly anyways. Still, the UUP’s losses are pretty broad, whether that be in Greater Belfast or their gene pool vote in rural areas (and in the latter the Alliance are weak and making little to no progress this year). So your acquaintances will represent a real section of the population, but the UUP has been and is losing votes in all directions (Alliance, DUP, TUV, and the graveyard).

[YL]

Greens seem to be doing rather poorly; their leader has just lost his seat in Castle DEA in Belfast.

[JimJamUK]

Greens seem to be doing rather poorly; their leader has just lost his seat in Castle DEA in Belfast.

I wonder if losing Assembly representation last year has significantly hurt them. They only got 1.9% in that election and that’s really reaching the level where you can’t even slip through the middle in your strongest wards.

[Epaminondas]

East of the Bann the DUP has actually grown due to cannibalising the UUP's share.
We'll see many ostensible UUP -> SF seats, which are in fact UUP -> DUP -> SF seats.

The narrative this sets will not help unblock the Assembly.

[YL]

There are a few places in the west where Alliance have done well; they've gained councillors for the first time in both Limavady and Enniskillen.

[EastAnglianLefty]

These results look very bad for the SDLP - the only thing saving them from obliteration in much of the west is SF under-nomination. Not bad for the Alliance but some way short of expectations, and whilst they'll make gains around Belfast they might actually lose seats in the west. The DUP have in many places held up fairly well, whilst the UUP are getting a shellacking.

I wonder whether Alliance have been hit a little bit themselves by the SF surge in a few places (e.g. Waterside and Faughan in Derry)?

The SDLP, like the UUP, need to come up with new answers to the question of what they are for if they want to avert the decline.

The Alliance's gains in Derry last time were basically flukes, where they came through the middle because nobody else was strong enough. Where they've done that near Belfast previously they've been strong enough next time to hold on, but they haven't been able to replicate that here.

The DUP have in many places held up fairly well, whilst the UUP are getting a shellacking.

Anecdotally know a number of UUP —> Alliance voters, will be interesting if that ends up being part of the story here. Wasn’t sure if that was a local phenomenon, or if it would be replicated more broadly.

One of the problems for the UUP is that Doug Beattie has the right strategy, it's just the right strategy for the UUP in 2013. The voters they've lost to the Alliance since have no reason to come back.

[icc]

There are a few places in the west where Alliance have done well; they've gained councillors for the first time in both Limavady and Enniskillen.

Yeah, Alliance aren't doing badly in the West (relative to 2019 - obviously they always do badly in the West), they're just doing badly in Derry & Strabane council area.

[Epaminondas]

While the DUP are indeed holding up well, and this spells more pain for NI in the coming years, they seem to be running out of margins. Last election the UUP bore the brunt of the unionism loss and took the final seats, but this time this election the UUP is being wiped out and the DUP is snatching up final seats.

This is not sustainable, and the next election the DUP should start going the way of the UUP.

One of the problems for the UUP is that Doug Beattie has the right strategy, it's just the right strategy for the UUP in 2013. The voters they've lost to the Alliance since have no reason to come back.

To me the existence of the UUP is predicated on the existence of a large number of government-minded unionist voters. But since 2016, unionism has fallen down a rabbit hole of persecution complex, not unlike the GOP in the US, and only the DUP feeds this resentment.

I see some Alliance voters being nationalists in Eastern wards where SF has a poor reputation.

[Epaminondas]

Good map on Ireland Votes.

Little-Pengelly's on the BBC repeating Jeffrey Donaldson's talking point: blame the UUP for "splitting up unionism" and "survive despite everyone in the media throwing the kitchen sink at the DUP". No plans for any changes around the Protocol, or shuttering Stormont.

I suspect the goodwill towards this persecution complex will dry up fast.

[CumbrianLefty]

UUP and SDLP both looking pretty dead as things stand - looking ever more like the 2019 GE was the classic "dead cat bounce" for the latter. Will either even be around as they are now a decade on?

[EastAnglianLefty]

The SDLP has never really been a party, it's more of a collection of personal votes and legacy electoral machines crudely taped together and more bits fall off every year.

The UUP's problem is that if your reason for supporting the union is ethnic identity and distrust of Catholics then the DUP are the obvious port of call, whereas if your reason is that you think things work better as part of the union than they would in a united Ireland, then the DUP are trying to change your mind.

[LabourJersey]

Where have the older SDLP voters gone, towards Alliance or towards SF?

Is there a generational gap in that (i.e. are young voters from SDLP families going to vote SF while their parents are more for Alliance?) or is it more nuanced than that?

[JimJamUK]

Where have the older SDLP voters gone, towards Alliance or towards SF?

Is there a generational gap in that (i.e. are young voters from SDLP families going to vote SF while their parents are more for Alliance?) or is it more nuanced than that?

They will have gone in both directions, I would guess more to Sinn Fein (others may have specific figures).

I don’t know if there is much of a gap in where their voters are going. There’s certainly a generational gap with the SDLP’s remaining voters being disproportionately older voters who were socialised when they were the main nationalist party. Their voters tend to be more socially/religious conservative and middle class than Sinn Fein voters.

[Epaminondas]

What are the socio-economic differences between Alliance voters and the remaining UUP base?

[Oryxslayer]

Where have the older SDLP voters gone, towards Alliance or towards SF?

Is there a generational gap in that (i.e. are young voters from SDLP families going to vote SF while their parents are more for Alliance?) or is it more nuanced than that?

The nationalist share of the vote has more or less remained stagnant for over a decade. It just has consolidated behind SF, partially cause of generational turnover as you allude to. And since the nationalist parties have lost voters to Alliance and minor groupings, SF comes on top in divided elections. That has more or less been the trendline since Brexit/May Minority Government intensified the situation.

The big question which might adjust the trends is what happens if SF takes government in the Republic. Cause for a long time the Alliance has profited off the perception (accurate) that the governments in London and the wider countries electorate doesn't care about NI unless whatever happens directly affects their personal lives. But the same has always also been true about Dublin and the RoI, just it has been obscured since the Troubles because NI is part of Great Britain. A SF government coming to power not off nationalism but cost of Living and especially Rent/Housing Prices, and rationally putting their voters and population as paramount, would certainly be a slap to NI SF voters who deep down believe in a quick fix solution to their many day-to-day problems.

[Epaminondas]

A SF government coming to power not off nationalism but cost of Living and especially Rent/Housing Prices, and rationally putting their voters and population as paramount, would certainly be a slap to NI SF voters who deep down believe in a quick fix solution to their many day-to-day problems.

You know the lay of the land. Have you ever come to Ireland?

While such a core platform betrayal would indeed pose the greatest threat to a United Irish movement, there really is no danger of an SF majority in the Republic in the foreseeable future.
The conservative cordon set up by FG and FF did not break after the 2020 wave, and now that the precedent is set, these parties will derive no advantage from accepting an unpredictable governing partner over their natural ally.

[JimJamUK]

What are the socio-economic differences between Alliance voters and the remaining UUP base?

Alliance voters are more middle class, urban/suburban and younger. The UUP wins almost nowhere these days, but insofar as it has strength it is in moderate unionist suburbs around Belfast and an assortment of personal votes in rural areas. There’s a lot of similarity with Alliance in the former, but the latter is largely poor for Alliance. Frankly, the UUP vote is very incoherent these days, it’s only clear features being somewhat older/middle class than the DUP vote, and being uniformly Protestant/Unionist (and even the political consequences of those labels is not consistent).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

If anyone could possibly explain what on earth is up with Banbridge and the UUP, as I’ve always rather wondered that!

[YL]

What are the socio-economic differences between Alliance voters and the remaining UUP base?

Alliance voters are more middle class, urban/suburban and younger. The UUP wins almost nowhere these days, but insofar as it has strength it is in moderate unionist suburbs around Belfast and an assortment of personal votes in rural areas. There’s a lot of similarity with Alliance in the former, but the latter is largely poor for Alliance. Frankly, the UUP vote is very incoherent these days, it’s only clear features being somewhat older/middle class than the DUP vote, and being uniformly Protestant/Unionist (and even the political consequences of those labels is not consistent).

I think there's still a bit of the old Anglican rather than Presbyterian thing to UUP support.  They still won more seats than the DUP in Fermanagh & Omagh, which is by some margin the district with the highest prevalence of Anglicans among its Protestant population.  (The only other districts where "Church of Ireland" outnumbers "Presbyterian Church in Ireland" in the 2021 census are ABC and Mid Ulster, and in those two cases it's much closer than in F & O, where it's nearly 3 to 1.)

[JimJamUK]

If anyone could possibly explain what on earth is up with Banbridge and the UUP, as I’ve always rather wondered that!

I’m not completely sure, but it’s a mostly unionist area (better than the demographics would suggest, I’ve seen some suggestion it’s one of the least sectarian parts of NI with a very rare Catholic crossover vote) and quite a bit more prosperous than surrounding areas and the rest of its council/constituency. The UUP have long been strong in the area, having a majority on the old Banbridge council until 2001, unusually regaining a lead over the DUP in 2011, doing better in 2014 after the amalgamation, and then still comfortably leading the DUP in 2019.

So basically, it’s an area that looks favourable to begin with but the lack of trend to the DUP in the last couple of decades suggests a strong local organisation/incumbency specifically in that ward (perhaps benefitting from the council amalgamation).