Gerrymandering the States

[muon2]

Is the goal to create a more favorable set for one party? That's the usual goal.

Some posters seem to look at correcting states that are too big or too small. Perhaps a formula based system would encourage that. For instance no state could have less than 1% of the national population without losing a Senate seat. Or, no state can have more than 10% of the total number of House seats.

Another redrawing would create more culturally similar areas. How about a state that sat between the Cascades and the Pacific extending from Santa Barbara north to Canada?

Without ground rules its hard to know which way to attack the problem.

[muon2]

I'm working on a master map at the county level including many of the fine suggestions so far. Geographical and cultural consideration are important as well as less spread in population from the largest to smallest.

I have some questions that go beyond my travels and experience. For instance in CA, what "state" should the Sacramento Valley go? Another way to ask is Chico more like Eureka, Merced, or Reno (all about the same distance)?

For the PA posters: I get the SE corner and west of the Susquehanna as separate entitites. Geographically, Reading and Allentown fit with Philly, Wilmington and South Jersey. What about Scranton? Is it more like central PA or central NY ( Altoona or Elmira ?)

[muon2]

My map is almost ready ...

Here are some of the guidelines I used:

Cultural boundaries were established by the geography of J. Garreau's "Nine Nations of North America" (1981). Eight of his nations apply to the US. Hawaii is outside this, and remains a state unto itself.

Each of the national areas was divided into states by county. Each state has between 2.5 and 10 million residents. The two exceptions were for Hawaii (as mentioned above) and for Los Angeles which remained grouped with Ventura and Orange Counties. In creating the states I tried to keep metropolitan areas intact and use existing states where reasonable.

Hey, it's summertime. Enjoy.

[muon2]

The states of Ecotopia:

Puget (pop. 5.2 M) includes WA west of the Cascades and AK.

Oregon (pop. 2.8 M) includes OR west of the Cascades.

Pacifica (pop. 8.5 M) includes CA west of the Coast Ranges as far south as Santa Barbara.

Hawaii (pop. 1.2 M) includes HI.

[muon2]

The states of Mex-America:

San Joaquin (pop. 5.4 M) includes the CA San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys between the Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada.

Santa Catalina (pop. 13.1 M) includes Los Angeles, Ventura and Orange counties.

Mojave (pop. 6.2 M) includes southern CA from San Bernadino to San Diego east to the Colorado River.

Arizona (pop. 4.5 M) includes AZ except the northern counties on the Colorado Plateau.

Upper Rio Grande (pop. 2.5 M) includes southern CO around Pueblo, central and western NM, and far west TX from El Paso to the Big Bend.

Lower Rio Grande (pop. 3.8 M) includes south TX from Del Rio to San Antonio to Corpus Christi and south to Mexico.

[muon2]

The states of the Empty Quarter:

Idaho (pop. 3.3 M) includes all of ID, and WA and OR east of the Cascades.

Nevada (pop. 3.2 M) includes all of NV, the Sierra Nevada in CA and northern AZ.

Utah (pop. 2.2 M) includes all of UT. (Yes, it's less than 2.5 M, but it's a rapidly growing state.)

Montana (pop. 5.4 M) includes all of MT and WY, and western CO to the Front Range including Denver and Colorado Springs.

[muon2]

The states of the Breadbasket:

Dakota (pop. 3.2 M) includes all of ND, SD, NE and northeastern CO.

Minnesota (pop. 5.0 M) includes all of MN.

Wisconsin (pop. 2.8 M) includes WI except for the south east from Green Bay through Milwaukee, and includes the Upper Peninsula of MI.

Iowa (pop. 2.9 M) includes all of IA.

Illinois (pop. 5.9 M) includes northern and central Illinois except the Chicago area, and northeast MO including St. Louis.

Kansas (pop. 4.2 M) includes all of KS, southeast CO, and northwest MO.

Central Texas (pop. 7.9 M) includes the area from Austin through Dallas/Fort Worth.

West Texas (pop. 3.8 M) includes West TX from San Angelo and Midland to Amarillo, eastern NM, and western and central OK.

[muon2]

Back from a day in the park with my family, I'll continue with more detail.

The states of the Foundry:

Winnebago (pop. 2.9 M) includes the WI coast of Lake Michigan from Green Bay south to IL.

Calumet (pop. 8.9 M) includes the Chicago metro area including northwest IN.

Michigan (pop. 7.0 M) includes Lower MI except for the Detroit area, and includes northeast IN and northwest OH.

Erie (pop. 7.8 M) includes the southern shore of Lake Erie from Detroit through Toledo and Cleveland to Erie PA.

Ohio (pop. 8.1 M) includes central and southern OH and central IN with Columbus, Cincinnati, Indianapolis.

Allegheny (pop. 8.1 M) includes western and central PA, eastern OH, northern WV, and far western MD.

Chesapeake (pop. 8.7 M) includes the Baltimore and Washington metro areas and the lower Susquehanna valley in PA. Note that DC gets to be part of a state!

Delaware (pop. 8.9 M) includes southeast PA, southern and central NJ, northern DE and a bit of MD between DE and the river.

Oneida (pop. 5.6 M) includes NY west of the Hudson Valley and northeast PA around Scranton.

Hudson (pop. 10 M) includes New York City and suburbs in NY, NJ and CT, but not Long Island.

Long Island (pop. 7.4 M) includes all of Long Island NY including Brooklyn and Queens.

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The states of New England:

Champlain (pop. 3.7 M) includes ME, NH, VT, and the Adirondack region of NY.

Massachusetts (pop. 4.8 M) includes eastern MA and Cape Cod and the Islands.

Berkshire (pop. 3.4 M) includes western MA from Worcester through Springfield, the Hudson Valley in NY from Albany to Newburgh, and Sussex county NJ.

Connecticut (pop. 3.6 M) includes RI and CT except for Fairfield county.

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The states of Dixie:

East Texas (pop. 6.9 M) includes Houston area west to Bryan and north to the Red River.

Ozark (pop. 5.9 M) includes AR, eastern OK with Tulsa, and southern MO up to Jefferson City.

Louisiana (pop. 4.5 M) includes present LA.

Mississippi (pop. 2.9 M) includes present MS.

Alabama (pop. 5.3 M) includes AL and the western FL panhandle.

Florida (pop. 9.6 M) includes FL without the panhandle or the Palm Beach-Miami area.

Georgia (pop. 8.7 M) includes GA and the central FL panhandle with Tallahassee.

South Carolina (pop. 4.0 M) includes present SC.

North Carolina (pop. 8.1 M) includes present NC.

Tennessee (pop. 5.7 M) includes present TN.

Kentucky (pop. 7.1 M) includes KY, southern IL, southern IN, and southern WV.

Virginia (pop. 6.0 M) includes VA except for the DC suburbs and adds the eastern shore of MD and southern DE.

[muon2]

One last state to make 50.

In the nation of the Islands:

Everglades (pop. 5.1 M) includes Palm Beach, Miami and south through the Keys.

When I can get it on a server, the map will appear.

[muon2]

The map:



The table with population and apportioned seats is at

http://niuhep.physics.niu.edu/~fortner/maps/9-nation-states.htm

[muon2]

Interesting map.. any estimates as to how many Republicans and Democrats there'd be in the Senate this way?  

The Senate would be hard to predict since many states have Senators that can appeal to the residents despite the party affiliation (eg. Daschle in SD). House seats tend to be a better measure of true political sense. The EC is often the clearest since voters are judging national candidates by their local standards. I haven't gone in detail but my guess is that the 2000 election would have still been won by Bush but with a more comfortable margin.

[muon2]

Guys...you have to lump Philly and NYC in the same state!

Not if I want to avoid states that are either too large or too small in population.  The South Jersey, North Delaware and Philly combination was a much better fit in terms of size and geography. NYC metro was easily big enough to support 2 states; the East River made a natural dividing line.

[muon2]

I'll probably be killed for asking this, but does anyone want to guess-timate what the EC would have been like in 2000 with the states looking like this?  Or where the 2004 election might stand?

Thanks in advance for anyone brave, patient, and data-oriented enough to take this on.   :-)

For my map I would estimate Bush 278, Gore 258. I haven't done the detailed county addition, but most new states are pretty clear. I made rough estimates for San Joaquin, Lower Rio Grande, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Winnebago. They all have balances of cities and rural areas that make them close.