2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-25/thaksin-family-scion-is-top-choice-for-thai-prime-minister-poll-shows

"Thaksin Family Scion Is Top Choice for Thai Leader, Poll Shows'

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra seems to be the top choice for PM.  The current Thaksin party, PTP, is also way ahead.  

Here we go again.  The last few times someone from the Thaksin clan became PM it did not end well.

[jaichind]

For the 2019 elections, a German-like PR leveling system was used for the first time.  It seems this time they will switch back to the old system of separate FPTP seats and PR seats.  It seems it will be 400 FPTP seats and 100 PR seats.  If there is no German-like PR leveling system this will be a monster PTP landslide.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-25/thaksin-family-scion-is-top-choice-for-thai-prime-minister-poll-shows

"Thaksin Family Scion Is Top Choice for Thai Leader, Poll Shows'

Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra seems to be the top choice for PM.  The current Thaksin party, PTP, is also way ahead.  

Here we go again.  The last few times someone from the Thaksin clan became PM it did not end well.

Did their times as PM actually have bad terms and the military got scared of them or is it like they were actually bad at running the country?

My understanding is that is about Bangkok Metropol vs outer lands as well as elite vs populist tensions.    

There is an elite Bangkok-based establishment that is closely tied to the military and royal family.  All serious political parties and PMs have to pay homage to this establishment to be able to rule.  

Thaksin Shinawatra's rise to power in 2001 broke that tradition as his political base was based on the Northern hinterlands.  Worse he tried to form his own parallel connections to the Royal family and that created a fatal break with the Bangkok-based establishment.  This set a pattern of parties always winning elections and not being able to effectively rule and the Bangkok-based establishment being able to make Thaksin Shinawatra parties rule ineffective but not able to win an election.  The 2019 election system was rigged to ensure that the pro-Thaksin Shinawatra party cannot win a  majority but that merely drove greater anti-incumbency in the hinterlands against the Bangkok-based establishment.

[jaichind]

At the moment, how likely is Prayut returning to another term?

To me it is very unlikely.   Prayut has to

a) Get all the pro-Prayut or potentially pro-Prayut parties into an electoral alliance
b) Hope that the anti-Prayut vote are evenly split between PTP and MFP.
c) Somehow hope that the vote split ends up giving the pro-Prayut parties to become the biggest bloc
d) Hope that PTP and MFP failed to from a governing alliance

All 4 are by itself hard.  Getting all of them to be true at the same time is extra hard. 

Bangkok has historically been anti-Shinawatra.  But in the  2022 Bangkok gubernatorial election the pro-PTP candidate won by a landslide.  Some of it was the personal vote but that gives one the sense on how the vote split will go.

[jaichind]

The Thai military is actually bothering with elections?

Just to be clear, the Thai military is powerful politically not because it is the military but because the population views the military as connected to and as the extension of the monarchy.  The Thai monarchy is highly respected and supported throughout Thailand. As a result, when the military overthrows the government it is viewed as having the support of the monarchy.  As a result, even voters that voted for the ruling party that got overthrown would tactically accept the result even if voting behavior next election is not likely to change.

[jaichind]

The Thai military is actually bothering with elections?

Just to be clear, the Thai military is powerful politically not because it is the military but because the population views the military as connected to and as the extension of the monarchy.  The Thai monarchy is highly respected and supported throughout Thailand. As a result, when the military overthrows the government it is viewed as having the support of the monarchy.  As a result, even voters that voted for the ruling party that got overthrown would tactically accept the result even if voting behavior next election is not likely to change.

That's how it used to be, but is it still the case? Any thoughts on this article?

"youth-led social movement that has demanded the resignation of Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha has also submitted a list of reforms calling for substantive changes to the monarchy, including the repeal of its draconian lèse majesté laws, which forbid the insult of the monarch and have been used as a weapon to silence dissent. Reforms also call for more transparency and accountability as well as banning the monarch from endorsing political coups, which is a frequent occurrence.

In an era where social norms are changing and old institutions of power are struggling to hold on to public legitimacy, it is important to assess how Thailand ended up at this point. How did a monarchy that had become a revered institution—personified by a young, charismatic king, whose image decorated the homes of millions of Thais—find itself in a crisis of legitimacy in such a short span of time?"

https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-rise-dominance-and-decline-of-thailands-monarchy/

I would agree that everything I wrote does not apply to people (mostly youth) that support FFP/MFP.  It is just that they got around 17% back in 2019 and that is where they are polling now so what I wrote is mostly true.  It is very possible the MFP vote will grow over the future and represent a much greater challenge to the current system than the PTP which really want to be part of and dominate the current system versus overthrowing it.

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2458167/pheu-thai-party-names-ung-ing-as-pm-candidate

"Pheu Thai Party names 'Ung-ing' as PM candidate"

Its official PTP names Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, to be its PM candidate.

[jaichind]

Back during the 2019 elections, I remember a couple of months before the election exiled former PM  Thaksin Shinawatra was distracted by his daughter's wedding in HK.  Now that daughter is the PM candidate for his party.

[jaichind]

Both the ruling PPP and opposition PTP are split in the upcoming election.  

It seems current PM Prayut had a falling out with PPP and formed his own party UTN to run separately in the upcoming elections.  On the PTP side, its 2019 PM candidate Keyuraphan formed her own PTP splinter TSTP.

With MFP, DP and BJT all going to run separately for now this is an ideal environment for PTP to sweep the 400 FPTP seats.  PM Prayut has to find a way to form an anti-PTP electoral alliance of all non-PTP and non-MFP parties to avoid such a PTP sweep.  It will not look easy.

[jaichind]

https://thediplomat.com/2023/01/daughter-of-former-thai-pm-thaksin-says-she-will-seek-premiership/

"Daughter of Former Thai PM Thaksin Says She Will Seek Premiership"

Paetongtarn Shinawatra officially accepts the PTP nomination to be its PM candidate in the upcoming election.

[jaichind]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Prayuth-plays-Thai-poll-timing-guessing-game-in-reelection-bid

"Prayuth plays Thai poll timing guessing game in reelection bid"

Prayuth has left the party he was associated with, PPP, and joined forces with PPP splinter UTNP.  Still the level of support for UTNP is well below overall level of support for Prayuth so he needs to figure out how to get a grand alliance of pro-Prayuth parties to contest.  This article points out incumbency will play a big role in roping in such defectors.

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2520365/mfp-ready-to-work-with-pheu-thai

"MFP 'ready to work with Pheu Thai'"

MFP seems to want an alliance with PT.

[jaichind]

More bad news for  Prayut, it seems.

Yes, but he can still count on potential civil wars in PT, PT splinter TSPT eating up some PT votes, and the potential of him building a grand alliance of all parties outside of PT and MFP which would include PPP, DP, UTN (which would be his new party), and BJT.  The last one would be hard to pull off but only he has the name recognition in the non-PT non-MFP camp to pull this off.

[jaichind]

The current election system will make it hard for any electoral alliance to take place.  It is similar to the 1992-2004 ROC legislative election system where the vote for the district candidate doubles as the vote to compute the PR seat without compensation.   At least the ROC system was multi-member districts.  Thailand will have all FPTP which would make it brutal.  Under this system, if you withdraw your candidate in favor of an ally, you are also losing PR votes.  This system would encourage all parties, large and small, to run everywhere to try to maximize their seat count on the PR slate.  This will especially be true for smaller parties.  This system will help the largest party since the vote will get splintered.  So far that party seems to be PT.

[jaichind]

The current election system will make it hard for any electoral alliance to take place.  It is similar to the 1992-2004 ROC legislative election system where the vote for the district candidate doubles as the vote to compute the PR seat without compensation.   At least the ROC system was multi-member districts.  Thailand will have all FPTP which would make it brutal.  Under this system, if you withdraw your candidate in favor of an ally, you are also losing PR votes.  This system would encourage all parties, large and small, to run everywhere to try to maximize their seat count on the PR slate.  This will especially be true for smaller parties.  This system will help the largest party since the vote will get splintered.  So far that party seems to be PT.

Apparently the government made a deal with Pheu Thai Party and now there are separate ballots from FPTP and PR.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Turbulent-Thailand/Thai-ruling-party-irks-progressives-with-electoral-tweaks

How interesting.  Thanks much for sharing.  Yes.  If so then the dynamic for the electoral alliance will get very interesting.

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2531455/paetongtarn-gets-most-support-for-premiership-nida-poll

"Paetongtarn far ahead of rivals for PM: poll"

NIDA poll on party preference has a massive PT lead

PT       49.85%
MFP     17.15%
UTN     12.15%  (Prayut Chan-o-cha led PPP splinter)
DP         4.95%
TLP        2.85%
TST        2.60%   (PT splinter)
BJT        2.55%
PPP        2.30%

Best PM

PT Paethongtarn Shinawatra    38.20%
MFP Pita Limjaroenrat             15.75%
PM Prayut Chan-o-cha            15.65%

NIDA has historically had a bias toward PT but this scale of a lead is massive. This poll also shows the way out for Prayut Chan-o-cha which is to go after Paethongtarn Shinawatra who is polling behind PT.

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65010818

"Thailand parliament dissolved ahead of May election"

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2536366/move-forwards-pita-pheu-thais-paetongtarn-duel-for-bangkoks-pm-choice-poll

NIDA poll for Bangkok

Consistency vote
PT    34.92%
MFP  27.73%
UTN  14.32%
DP      6.76%

PR vote
PT    34.40%
MFP  28.96%
UTN  14.68%
DP      6.08%

This poll has a very strong MFP and a very weak BJT (down at 1%-2%).  Sort of implies that MFP is strong in urban areas (makes sense) and BJT is a rural party.

Suan Dusit poll (party support all of Thailand)

PT    46.16%
MFP  15.43%
BJT   11.12%
UTN   8.73%
DP     7.71%
PPP    7.11%

This poll is the opposite.  In relative terms fairly weak MFP but BJT seems to be strong which gives you a sense of the where MFP and BJP relative strengths are.

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2521014/pheu-thai-joins-critics-of-bhumjaithais-free-cannabis-policy

"Pheu Thai joins critics of Bhumjaithai's free cannabis policy"

One of the reasons some polls have BJT support high might be because of their cannabis legalization promise.

[jaichind]

The vote for PM will be a relative majority of the 500 elected in the Lower House + 250 military-appointed Senate.  So if Paethongtarn Shinawatra is to become PM she has to

a) Make sure PT + MFP gets 375 or 75% of the Lower House seats and then make a deal with MFP
OR
b) Make a deal to share power with the military

PT+MFP getting 375 seats is a tall order.  Out of the 150 PR seats you figure, PT+MFP could win at most  60%-65% of them.  This means PT+MFP will need to sweep 80% of the FPTP seats.  I guess they can try to rope in PT splinter TSTP or even BJT but it is hard to say how many seats they will win and if they will play ball.

I think the most likely outcome is a big but not massive PT victory and Paethongtarn Shinawatra becomes PM after making a deal with the pro-military Senators.

[jaichind]

Latest NIDA poll (this poll seems to have a pro-PT and anti-BJT bias) (change from March)

Party preference
PT      47.00 (-2.85)
MFP    21.85 (+4.70)
UTN    11.40 (-0.75) (Prayut Chan-o-cha's new party)
DP        4.50 (-0.45)
BJT       3.00 (+0.45)
TLP       2.65 (-0.20)
TST       2.10 (-0.50) (PT splinter)
PPP       1.80 (-0.50)

[jaichind]

Nation poll

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40026755

PT well ahead with MFP well ahead as second place party

PT    35.75
MFP  16.02
UTN    4.50
BJT     3.80
DP      3.50
PPP     1.58

[jaichind]

The new Nations poll seems to have filtered out some undecideds but has the same pattern.   UTN and PT seem to have picked up some relative strength

PT      47.20
MFP    21.20
UTN    10.80
DP        4.75
BJT       3.75
TLP       2.15
PPP       2.10
TST       2.05



All the polls seem pretty clear.  It seems to be only the relative strength of BJT which is unclear.  Some have them way behind and others have them in a strong third position ahead of UTN.

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3218304/good-vibrations-thailands-democrat-party-makes-sex-toy-election-pledge

"Good vibrations: Thailand’s Democrat Party makes sex toy election pledge"

Conservative DP which is way behind and after being a powerful political party for 40 years could get wiped out this election turns to making an election pledge to legalize sex toys.

[jaichind]

Seat projections from Thairath News.  These projections would have BJT and DP outperforming and PT and MFP failing to cross 375 to win a majority after we add in the 250 pro-military Senators.  Such a result will most likely mean a forced grand alliance government between PT and the pro-military bloc.

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1651199678187446272