2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[jaichind]

In this election, many 2019 district winners defected.  Most of them did not do well, especially in urban areas where the district vote is more correlated with the PR vote.

Urban seats

Party    Incumbents                       Incumbant
           same party       won           Defectors         won
BJT           2                  0                   27               0
PPP         14                  1                    1                0
DP           3                  0
UTN                                                 11                 0
CTPP                                                 1                 0

PT         32                  9                    5                 2
MFP        7                  7


Rural seats

Party    Incumbents                       Incumbant
           same party       won           Defectors         won
BJT         33                 23                  20               3
PPP         27                16                    4                2
DP          20                  7
UTN                                                 18               10
CTPP        7                 6

PT         59                31                    3                 2
MFP        1                  1
PP          5                  5

A lot of 2019 FFP winners defected to other parties (most to BJT) instead of running for MFP. All of them lost.  PT's losses in incumbent candidates from a 2019 underperformance (mostly to PPP) are symbolic of its 2023 underperformance (mostly to MFP in urban areas and BJT in rural areas.)   A lot of incumbents, especially in urban areas, defected to BJT and all of them bombed and many got a very tiny vote share.

[jaichind]

https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/factional-politics-after-thailands-election-survive-or-decline/

"Factional Politics After Thailand’s Election: Survive or Decline"

The article points out that despite MFP taking a bunch of seats from factional candidates (mostly aligned with pro-military parties like BJT but also sometimes with PT) does not diminish the power of local factions due to their domination of local politics.  Besides the factional candidates did win a bunch of rural seats.  The article points out one observation I made, namely: the 2 ballot system actually helps the local factional candidates (which I call local kingpins) since the anti-miliary voter can vent their anger against the regime by voting MFP on the PR vote and then swing back to voting for the local faction candidate over the MFP candidate on the FPTP ballot.

[jaichind]

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/thai-election-agency-to-probe-prime-minister-frontrunner-pita-says-bangkok-post

Thai election agency to probe prime minister front runner Pita: Report

This is about the claim that Pita owns shares in a media company against regulations

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2595946/ec-seeks-more-evidence-on-pita-itv-share-claims

Bangkok Post: EC seeks more evidence on Pita iTV-share claims

This whole Pita illegal media shares scandal comes down legally to when he sold those shares to his relatives.  Either way this entire episode now gives the Senate the excuse to block him as PM. 

[peterthlee]

If Pita couldn't secure 375, would the storyline be like Chaithawat Tulathon (who helped appeal to some senators on supporting Pita) or somebody from PT becomes the new PM?

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- The pro-democracy coalition bidding to form the next government in Thailand will nominate Wan Muhamad Noor Matha as its candidate for the speaker of the House of Representatives, ending a weeks-long dispute among its major constituents over the powerful position.  Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, 79, a former speaker and leader of the Prachachat Party, will contest the election scheduled for Tuesday, the group’s prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat said, after a meeting in Bangkok on Monday

MFP and PT  break deadlock over Speaker role by going with a PPSpeaker.  PP is a Malay Muslim PT splinter from the deep South

[jaichind]

There will be one MFP and one PT Deputy Speaker.

This deal bodes well for the anti-military bloc holding together in the battle for PM spot vs Senate

[xelas81]

How popular are the Muslim minority among average Thais?

[jaichind]

How popular are the Muslim minority among average Thais?

See

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Thailand_insurgency

There has been an ongoing Malay Muslim insurgency in Thailand Deep South

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

A bit concerning with Matha's age but the arrangement otherwise does seem to be a good thing for coalition stability.

[jaichind]

The latest Nomura research report says the chances of a PT PM are 60% while the chances of a MFP PM are 30%.  They say that Pita does not have the numbers and a PT PM is the most likely compromise for all sides.

[jaichind]

From Bloomberg:

"The Election Commission Wednesday approached the Constitutional Court seeking Pita’s disqualification as a lawmaker, on the grounds that he breached election rules by holding shares in a media company when he applied to run for public office. Hours later, the same court admitted a case filed by a lawyer seeking dissolution of Move Forward over its vow to amend the country’s royal defamation law."

MFP will most likely start street protests very soon if not already in action.

[jaichind]

In the meantime, PM Prayut Chan-o-cha and leader of UTN announces that he will retire from politics.  This will make it easier for a grand non-MFP coalition to be formed.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-12/thai-court-receives-case-against-pm-aspirant-pita-s-party

"Thai Court Receives Case Against PM Aspirant Pita’s Party"

In theory, this case could lead to MFP being dissolved.

[jaichind]

The vote for PM is tomorrow.  These last-minute moves clearly timed in a way to derail Pita and MFP.  Will not surprise me if PT behind the scenes is in on it because any alternative to Pita being PM would now have to be PT or BJT especially now with current PM Prayut Chan-o-cha now out of the way.

[jaichind]

Vote for PM in progress.

So far Pita only has 5 out of 86 Senate votes cast.  Most likely he failed to win enough Senate votes to win.

[jaichind]

With Pita failing to win and more legal problems coming the only way out would be a PT-led government which would be

"Everything Is Proceeding as I Have Foreseen"

[jaichind]

The lower House vote for PM is mostly along partisan lines which would then end up being ~310 out of 500 for Pita.
The Senate vote is now 5 for Pita out of 101 vote cast. 

[jaichind]

Pita fails to win the PM vote.  He only got 11 Senators to vote for him in addition to the 310 Lower House MPs.  I think he had around 10-15 Senators a few weeks ago so it seems he did not grow his support in the Senate at all last few weeks.

[jaichind]

The final vote count seems to be that Pita won 324 votes.  13 from the Senate and 311 from the Lower House.  The threshold is 376 out of 750 (500 Lower House and 250 Senate) to get elected.

A gap of greater than 50 votes seems hard to overcome for Pita.

So now that "bad cop" Pita has failed it will soon be time for "good cop" PT to emerge.

PT can either lead an anti-military alliance that can get a bunch of Senate votes which are too scared of the return of "bad cop" Pita.  And if MFP does not play alone then PT can form an alliance with the pro-military parties to get a Lower House majority and will have zero issues in the Senate.

The key question now is how long will Pita keep on trying to be PM as he does not have the votes and cases mount against hin.

[jaichind]

One other interesting fact is Pita got 311 votes in the Lower House.  His alliance has 312 MPs so he did not really make any progress in the 3-4 neutral but lean pro-military parties to back him.

This vote shows an anti-Pita consolidation of all pro-military lean-military forces in the Lower House and Senate

[jaichind]

The word is that once Pita fails on the next vote then PT will put forward Srettha Thavisin who is close to the Thaksin clan as PM candidate.   Paetongtarn Shinawatra lost her chance when PT underperformed with her as the face of PT.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thailands-move-forward-seek-curb-senate-powers-after-loss-pm-vote-2023-07-14/

"Thailand's Move Forward seek to curb Senate powers after loss in PM vote"

In other words: Pita to Senate "After I become PM you will be out of a job.  Oh, BTW, please vote for me for PM next week"

I think this move means Pita has given up on being PM and is now mostly focused on rallying the progressive and anti-military vote in the 2027 elections.

[jaichind]

https://www.pattayamail.com/thailandnews/nacc-dismisses-charges-against-ex-pm-thaksin-shinawatra-on-thai-airways-corruption-case-435952

"NACC dismisses charges against ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra on Thai Airways corruption case"

More signs of PT and pro-military bloc getting ready for a deal between them. 

[jaichind]

MFP claims that a lot of Senators failed to vote for Pita under duress.