2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[jaichind]

Prayut Chan-o-cha's UTN is only ahead in 12 seats and less than PPP and DP.  This is embarrassing.  I cannot see how he can make a claim to be a PM even if the pro-military bloc overperforms. 

It seems BJT's Anutin Charnvirakul and current DPM is a good candidate to be next PM if the pro-military bloc does well enough in some sort of power-sharing with PT

[Lachi]

Crazy that a province that hasn't had an MP from a non-conservative party in nearly 40 years might be swept by MF this time.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

It seems PT is doing way worse than polling suggested in Bangkok so this seems more about the anti-military bloc vote deciding to consolidate around MFP there.  Really bad news for PT in other urban and suburban areas elsewhere.

[Logical]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

Thai zoomers are simply very liberal and anti military. They speak good English, are immersed in Western culture and have a very different vision for the country than their parents.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

It seems PT is doing way worse than polling suggested in Bangkok so this seems more about the anti-military bloc vote deciding to consolidate around MFP there.  Really bad news for PT in other urban and suburban areas elsewhere.

This makes me wonder what the results would look like in Chiang Mai. Is MFP winning there too?

[Logical]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

It seems PT is doing way worse than polling suggested in Bangkok so this seems more about the anti-military bloc vote deciding to consolidate around MFP there.  Really bad news for PT in other urban and suburban areas elsewhere.

This makes me wonder what the results would look like in Chiang Mai. Is MFP winning there too?

MFP ahead 5, PTP in 4, PPP in 1

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          70
BJT         38
PPP         20
DP          17
UTN        16
CP            8

UTN's vote seems to be spread all over Thailand but not concentrated.  BJT  PPP DP vote are concentrated which help them wins seats.    MFP seat lead seems to be stagnating around 100 as the outstanding seats become more rural in nature.

[Logical]

A majority for anti military parties is certain. The only question is whether MFP or PTP will be larger (tossup), and if they can reach 375 seats together (unlikely)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Bangkok-25 and Bangkok-15 are the only seats in the capital that MFP is not leading in currently (PTP is leading there). That is 2 of 33.

[jaichind]

I created a chart of 2020 and 2021 GDP growth numbers relative to what was expected before COVID-19 hit across all significant economies.  Thailand was at the bottom.  The only economies that performed worse relative to expected were  India, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?

Thai zoomers are simply very liberal and anti military. They speak good English, are immersed in Western culture and have a very different vision for the country than their parents.

If so, the established interests of the country might need to weigh the MFP carefully. A wholesale ban on the party and all sorts of usual suppression mechanisms might only backfire...especially if that is done via a military coup.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP      102
PT          72
BJT         51
PPP         25
UTN        18
DP          17
CP            8

BJT continues to surge.  I wondering if what is taking place in rural seats is that the MFP surge is splitting the anti-military vote and letting in parties like BJT and other pro-military parties over PT.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MFP currently sweeping all three seats in Phuket. It's not winning many seats in Southern Thailand. The closest current MFP lead seats are located all the way in Surat Thani about 120 miles away.

[olenik2]

Some of the constituency/list vote splits does not make sense to me, for example there are several seats in Buriram that votes for Bhumjaithai for the constituency, while the MFP is very strong on the list.

Do they count the constituency/list separately?

[jaichind]

Some of the constituency/list vote splits does not make sense to me, for example there are several seats in Buriram that votes for Bhumjaithai for the constituency, while the MFP is very strong on the list.

Do they count the constituency/list separately?

Yes, it is a separate ballot for PR.  This is the first time they are doing it this way.

[Logical]

FPTP leads from the electoral commission.

PTP 62
BJT 35
MFP 27
PPP 27
UTN 15
DP 9

Nothing from Bangkok or urban areas reported yet though so MFP is heavily underestimated.

[olenik2]

I know it's a separate ballot, but are there that many voters that split between party blocs, or do some voting counts release constituency and list votes at separate times?

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP      106
PT          92
BJT         67
PPP         34
UTN        21
DP          17
CP            9

PT and BJP got more boosts in terms of seats as more rural areas starts reporting.

On the PR side, It is MFP at 42 and PT at 25.  The anti-military vote is 67 out of 100 on the PR section so far.

[Logical]

I know it's a separate ballot, but are there that many voters that split between party blocs, or do some voting counts release constituency and list votes at separate times?

Some polling places count FPTP votes first others count PR votes first, so early results will appear chaotic. That said, Thai voters are generally weird.

[jaichind]

So far it seems that MFP is the urban anti-military party while PT is the rural anti-military party.  On the other side, it seems UTN is the urban pro-military party while BJT is the rural pro-military party.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total   
MFP      116        42      158
PT          97        25      122
BJT         72          2       74
PPP         33          1       34
UTN        24        16       40
DP          18          3       21
CP          10           1      11

I suspect the PR vote count has a very urban lean

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

PTP dominating in Nakhon Ratchasima so far, leading in 12 of 16 seats. I wonder if there's local considerations at play or this is just an early-in-the-count thing.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total  
MFP      114        40      154
PT          96        28      124
BJT         77          2       81
PPP         31          1       32
UTN        26        15       41
DP          21          3       24
CP          10          0       10

Looks like PT is en route to losing district seats relative to 2019.  MFP and BJT surge are huge.

[Lachi]

Vote split really hurting PT/MF in the eastern provinces

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total 
MFP      116        39      155
PT        103        29      132
BJT         75          2       77
PPP         30          1       31
UTN        25        14       39
DP          20          3       23
CP          10          0       10

A small movement toward PT.  I am still confused about the PR seats.  Seems very urban-biased to make sense.