2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[Lachi]

[jaichind]

Wow... if true amazing outperformance by the pro-military parties and underperformance by MFP.  If these were the results then it will be a PT-military grand coalition

[jaichind]

Bloomberg: "A pre-election opinion poll in Thailand’s parliamentary election showed the pro-democracy Pheu Thai party winning between 164 and 172 seats, the most of any party. The liberal Move Forward came in second with between 80 and 88 seats, according to the Nida poll.

A separate exit survey by Nation Group showed Pheu Thai garnering 32.6% of the constituency vote, while Move Forward had 29.4%, together giving them a slim majority if the result materializes.

A third survey by Suan Dusit, taken before voting began, showed Pheu Thai winning as many as 246 seats, followed by Move Forward at 106. "

The  Nation Group exit poll mentioned above would have large outperformance by MFP. 

So it seems exit polls are all over the place.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, what exactly is Move Forward?

[Logical]

All polls (including exit polls) in Thailand are biased. Wait for the actual results.

[jaichind]

This seems to be the final pre-election Suan Dusit survey Bloomberg referred to

[jaichind]

This is the final NIDA pre-election survey.  Massive outperformance by pro-military parties and large underperformance by MFP and a small underperformance by PT.

[jaichind]

All polls (including exit polls) in Thailand are biased. Wait for the actual results.

I know. But it is fun to review them in lieu of real results.

[jaichind]

So, what exactly is Move Forward?

Youth-focused "anti-system" progressive party.  In theory, likely a post-election PT ally but MFP is getting radical enough that a PT-MFP alliance could trigger the military to step in and PT might not want to risk that.

[jaichind]

SPU exit poll

[jaichind]

It seems even the exit polls favorable to PT and MFP do not get PT+MFP > 375.  It seems it will be some sort of PT and pro-military parties post-election arrangments as at least the exit polls are not showing the mega PT landslide that seems possible pre-election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Credit to Reddit user ikkue for this one
I found the r/Thailand thread for this and found it there.

[jaichind]

It is very early with very few votes in but

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

MFP sweeping Bangkok (again very few votes in) and ahead in 98 district seats.  PT ahead in 28, BJT 17, DP 13, UTN 9, PPP 11

[jaichind]

If the election result has MFP with massive overperformance we might have a crisis on our hands.  The military will not allow MFP anywhere near the government.  The military might accept PT with some conditions but MFP is totally off the table for them.

[jaichind]

PT's Paetongtarn Shinawatra says at the PT election night party “I still have very high confidence in our victory. All of you please be patient” in response to exit polls failing to show a PT sweep. 

[Logical]

On the ground reports suggests that MFP is indeed on its way to sweep Bangkok. Haven't seen anything from rural and provincial Thailand yet though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the election result has MFP with massive overperformance we might have a crisis on our hands.  The military will not allow MFP anywhere near the government.  The military might accept PT with some conditions but MFP is totally off the table for them.

Separate soldiers from politics

Adjust the structure so the military is under a civil government.

Abolish the special mechanisms (council of defence, military court, ISOC).

Transparent military with accountability

Reduce secret budgets, publicly disclose information, appoint a military inspector, give military land back to the people, give military businesses back to the government.

Modern military, up-to-date with the world

Reduce military size by 30–40%.

Reduce the number of generals.

Abolish compulsory military service, build career soldiers.

Yes, I'd like 1 coup please, with extra coup. Oh, this comes with the extra fast coup? Excellent.

-Pita, probably

(u/RedgrenCrumbholt)
I laughed at this...

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP      101
PT          42
BJT         24
DP          17
PPP         13
UTN          8

BJT doing pretty well so far

[Lachi]

Yeah, only 3 seats here, but interestingly historically conservative, Democratic voting Phuket is looking like it might go completely the opposite direction

[jaichind]

The numbers so far which are tiny either mean a MFP sweep or they have an urban bias which for sure will favor MFP.  As more rural parts of mixed seats come in PT will overtake MFP.  But pure urban areas are for sure now going to MFP.

The poor Thailand economic performance during and after COVID-19 is now showing up in the voting numbers for the urban vote to take a risk on something like MFP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The numbers so far which are tiny either mean a MFP sweep or they have an urban bias which for sure will favor MFP.  As more rural parts of mixed seats come in PT will overtake MFP.  But pure urban areas are for sure now going to MFP.

The poor Thailand economic performance during and after COVID-19 is now showing up in the voting numbers for the urban vote to take a risk on something like MFP.

It'll be kind of hilarious to see PT suddenly become an establishment darling just because ultra-radical MFP spooks them that much.

[jaichind]

MFP leader and billionaire  Pita Limjaroenrat says about some exit polls showing MFP outperformance “If those numbers are true, we’ll use the seats to negotiate for the benefits of the Thai people. It’s a good sign that change has arrived in Thailand.”

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP      101
PT          49
BJT         30
DP          17
PPP         13
UTN        11

PT underperforming, MFP and BJT overperforming

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

district leads

MFP        99
PT          60
BJT         34
DP          16
PPP         18
UTN        10
CP            7

As more rural votes start to come in PT and BJT make gains.  The MFP winning margins in Bangkok are massive

Is it possible there are a lot of unemployed or under-employed youth in Bangkok impacting these results?