2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[jaichind]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65010818

"Thailand parliament dissolved ahead of May election"

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/2536366/move-forwards-pita-pheu-thais-paetongtarn-duel-for-bangkoks-pm-choice-poll

NIDA poll for Bangkok

Consistency vote
PT    34.92%
MFP  27.73%
UTN  14.32%
DP      6.76%

PR vote
PT    34.40%
MFP  28.96%
UTN  14.68%
DP      6.08%

This poll has a very strong MFP and a very weak BJT (down at 1%-2%).  Sort of implies that MFP is strong in urban areas (makes sense) and BJT is a rural party.

Suan Dusit poll (party support all of Thailand)

PT    46.16%
MFP  15.43%
BJT   11.12%
UTN   8.73%
DP     7.71%
PPP    7.11%

This poll is the opposite.  In relative terms fairly weak MFP but BJT seems to be strong which gives you a sense of the where MFP and BJP relative strengths are.

[jaichind]

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2521014/pheu-thai-joins-critics-of-bhumjaithais-free-cannabis-policy

"Pheu Thai joins critics of Bhumjaithai's free cannabis policy"

One of the reasons some polls have BJT support high might be because of their cannabis legalization promise.

[jaichind]

The vote for PM will be a relative majority of the 500 elected in the Lower House + 250 military-appointed Senate.  So if Paethongtarn Shinawatra is to become PM she has to

a) Make sure PT + MFP gets 375 or 75% of the Lower House seats and then make a deal with MFP
OR
b) Make a deal to share power with the military

PT+MFP getting 375 seats is a tall order.  Out of the 150 PR seats you figure, PT+MFP could win at most  60%-65% of them.  This means PT+MFP will need to sweep 80% of the FPTP seats.  I guess they can try to rope in PT splinter TSTP or even BJT but it is hard to say how many seats they will win and if they will play ball.

I think the most likely outcome is a big but not massive PT victory and Paethongtarn Shinawatra becomes PM after making a deal with the pro-military Senators.

[jaichind]

Latest NIDA poll (this poll seems to have a pro-PT and anti-BJT bias) (change from March)

Party preference
PT      47.00 (-2.85)
MFP    21.85 (+4.70)
UTN    11.40 (-0.75) (Prayut Chan-o-cha's new party)
DP        4.50 (-0.45)
BJT       3.00 (+0.45)
TLP       2.65 (-0.20)
TST       2.10 (-0.50) (PT splinter)
PPP       1.80 (-0.50)

[jaichind]

Nation poll

https://www.nationthailand.com/thailand/politics/40026755

PT well ahead with MFP well ahead as second place party

PT    35.75
MFP  16.02
UTN    4.50
BJT     3.80
DP      3.50
PPP     1.58

[jaichind]

The new Nations poll seems to have filtered out some undecideds but has the same pattern.   UTN and PT seem to have picked up some relative strength

PT      47.20
MFP    21.20
UTN    10.80
DP        4.75
BJT       3.75
TLP       2.15
PPP       2.10
TST       2.05



All the polls seem pretty clear.  It seems to be only the relative strength of BJT which is unclear.  Some have them way behind and others have them in a strong third position ahead of UTN.

[jaichind]

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3218304/good-vibrations-thailands-democrat-party-makes-sex-toy-election-pledge

"Good vibrations: Thailand’s Democrat Party makes sex toy election pledge"

Conservative DP which is way behind and after being a powerful political party for 40 years could get wiped out this election turns to making an election pledge to legalize sex toys.

[jaichind]

Seat projections from Thairath News.  These projections would have BJT and DP outperforming and PT and MFP failing to cross 375 to win a majority after we add in the 250 pro-military Senators.  Such a result will most likely mean a forced grand alliance government between PT and the pro-military bloc.

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1651199678187446272

[jaichind]

It seems there will be no seat adjustment in the pro-military bloc (PPP, DP, UTN, and BJT) and no seat adjustment in the opposition camp (PT, MFP) with all major parities running everywhere.  With PT and MFP polling 1st and 2nd in polls, this arrangement will work to the advantage of PT and MFP and especially PT.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/thailand-pm-candidate-paetongtarn-shinawatra-gives-birth-two-weeks-before-elections-3994987

"Thailand PM Candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra Gives Birth Two Weeks Before Elections"

This is her second child.

[jaichind]

Latest Suan Dusit poll - PT loses some ground to MFP  (change from March poll)

PT       41.37  (-4.79)
MFP     19.32  (+3.89)
BJT       9.55  (-1.57)
UTN      8.48 (-0.25)
PPP      7.49   (-0.22)
DP       7.30   (+0.19)

MFP is strong with the youth vote with PT dominating everywhere else.
PT is way ahead in all regions except for the Deep South where DP is ahead and PF MFP BJT and UTN are in a 4-way battle for second.

Looks like PT is set to sweep all FPTP seats everywhere except for the Deep South

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Latest Suan Dusit poll - PT loses some ground to MFP  (change from March poll)

PT       41.37  (-4.79)
MFP     19.32  (+3.89)
BJT       9.55  (-1.57)
UTN      8.48 (-0.25)
PPP      7.49   (-0.22)
DP       7.30   (+0.19)

MFP is strong with the youth vote with PT dominating everywhere else.
PT is way ahead in all regions except for the Deep South where DP is ahead and PF MFP BJT and UTN are in a 4-way battle for second.

Looks like PT is set to sweep all FPTP seats everywhere except for the Deep South

With these numbers, it might be possible for PT to win even without military senator support?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/thailand-pm-candidate-paetongtarn-shinawatra-gives-birth-two-weeks-before-elections-3994987

"Thailand PM Candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra Gives Birth Two Weeks Before Elections"

This is her second child.

Very convenient timing.....

[jaichind]

With these numbers, it might be possible for PT to win even without military senator support?

With these numbers, it is clear that PT + MFP > 375 seats which would remove the need for a Grand Coalition.   The pro-military bloc vote is hopelessly split 4 ways between BJT UNT PPP and DP across all regions.

It really depends on how many FPTP seats MFP wins but there is a chance that PT might even win 375 seats on its own although that seems not that likely.  In a situation where PT needs MFP to get over 375, it is not clear that  Paetongtarn Shinawatra can become PM.  MFP might their demands on which PT person becomes PM.

[warandwar]

Latest Suan Dusit poll - PT loses some ground to MFP  (change from March poll)

PT       41.37  (-4.79)
MFP     19.32  (+3.89)
BJT       9.55  (-1.57)
UTN      8.48 (-0.25)
PPP      7.49   (-0.22)
DP       7.30   (+0.19)

MFP is strong with the youth vote with PT dominating everywhere else.
PT is way ahead in all regions except for the Deep South where DP is ahead and PF MFP BJT and UTN are in a 4-way battle for second.

Looks like PT is set to sweep all FPTP seats everywhere except for the Deep South

With these numbers, it might be possible for PT to win even without military senator support?

Numerically speaking, but i would think they'd feel safer from a coup if they did a deal with a sector of the military

[jaichind]

News Nation poll has MFP gaining from PT but PT is still in a solid position to win a clear majority but clearly not a massive landslide

It has PT at 247 FPTP seats out of 400.  You figure PT will win around 40 PR seats so PT will get close to 300 seats.  MFP is projected to be 52 plus 30 PR seats would get them around 80. 

News Nation does warn that the pro-military parties might be under-polled so PT could end up as few as 229 seats.  In that situation, PT will need to do a grand alliance deal with pro-military parties to rule.

The fact that PT+MFP is only projected to win 330 out of 400 FPTP seats despite such massive poll leads seems to indicate that pro-military parties clearly have the edge in the Deep South plus some pro-military strongholds must exist in the rest of Thailand, especially old DP strongholds.

[Octowakandi]

Wonder how long this new PM would last before there's another coup.

[jaichind]

https://www.thaipbsworld.com/big-turnout-at-polling-stations-for-advance-voting-in-thailands-general-election/

"Big turnout at polling stations for advance voting in Thailand’s general election"

Early voting turnout is heavy

[jaichind]

Voting in progres.  Thailand election commission expects turnout of over 80%

[jaichind]

Voting will end 5PM (6AM EST) and first unofficial results will be on the ECT site most likely around 7:30AM EST

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

[jaichind]

PBS Thai result site

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

[Lachi]

Exit poll is a completely different picture for MF than all the polling?

[jaichind]

Exit poll is a completely different picture for MF than all the polling?

If you are talking about that NIDA poll that has

PT 164-172
MFP 80-88

a) I am not sure if this is FPTP seat (which would sort of make sense) or overall seats (which would mean pro-military overperformance)
b) this is their last  pre-election survey and not an exit poll

[Lachi]

Exit poll is a completely different picture for MF than all the polling?

If you are talking about that NIDA poll that has

PT 164-172
MFP 80-88

a) I am not sure if this is FPTP seat (which would sort of make sense) or overall seats (which would mean pro-military overperformance)
b) this is their last  pre-election survey and not an exit poll

I'm talking about the exit poll that had PT at 226, and MF at only 23 and in 6th place