2023 Thailand general election - May 14th

[Logical]

Faster results here, directly from the EC.
https://election2566.thestandard.co/

[jaichind]

Faster results here, directly from the EC.
https://election2566.thestandard.co/

Looks like https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result just changed their results to mostly match this site.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total
PT         99         32      131
MFP       93         34      127
BJT         62          4       66
PPP         37          2       39
UTN        26        13       39
DP          20          3       23
CP            8          1         9

PT getting close to MFP on PR and takes lead overall

[jaichind]

It seems all the media sites are connecting their results to the election commission site results

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

           District    PR     Total
PT         107        31      138
MFP        88         35      123
BJT         60          4       64
PPP         37          2       39
UTN        27        13       40
DP          21          3       24
CP            8          1         9

PT makes more gains.  MFP district leads falling as more votes (I guess more rural) comes in

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My question is why is the military bloc so divided? Surely given they + the monarchy have shared overriding interest in staying in power you'd think it would be relatively easy to hash out some kind of unified pact.

Also in regards to the clergy: are the Buddhist leadership/monastic types in the military's pocket? Is there religious division?

[Logical]

MFP has regained the lead from PTP, the anti military block will have at least 300 seats in total.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       115        36      151                25.7%                    37.6%
PT         114        31      145                31.5%                    32.3%
BJT         63          4       67                 18.0%                      3.6%
PPP         33          2       35                   9.4%                      1.5%
UTN        21        13       34                    5.7%                   13.1%
DP          20          3       23                    4.1%                     2.6%
CP            7          1         8                    3.0%                     0.8%

Note that the PR vote has counted around 12 million votes while the district vote has only counted around 6 million votes.  Even allowing for UTN PR voters tactical voting there must me massive MFP and PT vote splitting for pro-military candidate at the district vote OR the PR vote count will move toward pro-military parties OR the district seat count will move toward anti-military parties.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       115        36      151                25.9%                    36.2%
PT         116        31      147                32.1%                    31.1%
BJT         63          4       67                 17.7%                      3.5%
PPP         32          2       34                   9.0%                      1.5%
UTN        19        13       32                    5.1%                   12.6%
DP          20          3       23                    4.0%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    3.3%                     0.7%

PR counted: ~14 million
District counted: ~7 million

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       112        37      149                27.9%                    37.3%
PT         113        30      143                30.5%                    30.5%
BJT         64          3       67                 17.1%                      3.2%
PPP         39          2       41                   9.4%                      1.5%
UTN        24        12       36                    5.4%                   12.3%
DP          21          3       24                    4.4%                     2.4%
CP            9          1       10                    2.6%                     0.6%

PR counted: ~23 million
District counted: ~11 million

The result gap between the district and PR grows wider.  Not sure how it will resolve itself.  I figure around 40 million votes got cast so the PR number seems more and more relevant and unlikely to change.

[jaichind]

Enough of the PR vote has come in such that even if there is an urban bias in the count MFP beat PT in the PR vote.  Amazing.

[Octowakandi]

Seems like a pretty clear PT-MFP coalition?

[jaichind]

Seems like a pretty clear PT-MFP coalition?

They will need 375 seats out of 500 for that which they will clearly not get since the 250 pro-military senators get to vote for PM as well.

To be viable the new government must have 375 lower house MPs OR 250 lower MPs plus the support of the 250 senators.   

A grand coalition of PT and various pro-military parties (BJT, PPP UTN) is the most likely outcome.   BJT's leader and current DPM Anutin Charnvirakul seems to have a good path to become PM.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       113        38      151                29.1%                    37.7%
PT         112        30      142                29.6%                    30.0%
BJT         65          3       68                 16.6%                      3.1%
PPP         40          2       42                   9.6%                      1.4%
UTN        24        12       36                    5.2%                   12.5%
DP          21          3       24                    4.4%                     2.4%
PP            7          2         9                    1.5%                     1.9%
CP            8          1         9                    2.2%                     0.5%

PR counted: ~26 million
District counted: ~12 million

MFP vote share rising and PT vote share falling in both categories.  PT falling in district vote means it loses ground to pro-military parties in rural areas.

[Octowakandi]

Seems like a pretty clear PT-MFP coalition?

They will need 375 seats out of 500 for that which they will clearly not get since the 250 pro-military senators get to vote for PM as well.

To be viable the new government must have 375 lower house MPs OR 250 lower MPs plus the support of the 250 senators.   

A grand coalition of PT and various pro-military parties (BJT, PPP UTN) is the most likely outcome.   BJT's leader and current DPM Anutin Charnvirakul seems to have a good path to become PM.

That's disappointing, so the best thing for democracy would have been if PT actually got way more votes. I guess it is what it is. Maybe this reduces the chance that another Shinawatra has to go in exile.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       114        38      152                28.6%                    37.9%
PT         112        30      142                29.3%                    29.8%
BJT         65          3       68                 16.9%                      3.1%
PPP         40          1       41                   9.5%                      1.5%
UTN        25        13       38                    5.4%                   12.5%
DP          20          3       23                    4.3%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    2.5%                     0.5%
PP            7          2         9                    1.5%                     1.9%


PR counted: ~28 million
District counted: ~12 million

District votes counted slows down to a trickle even though there is a massive number of them outstanding.

[jaichind]

My question is why is the military bloc so divided? Surely given they + the monarchy have shared overriding interest in staying in power you'd think it would be relatively easy to hash out some kind of unified pact.

Also in regards to the clergy: are the Buddhist leadership/monastic types in the military's pocket? Is there religious division?

Looking at the district results so far this might be a feature and not a bug.  The rules for PR seat allocation actually benefit small parties so the pro-military bloc is better off running several PR lists.  And it seems for the district votes the pro-military vote seems to be doing a good job consolidating around a pro-military candidate where as PT and MFP seem to be splitting the anti-military vote down the middle in many districts.  Note that there are large number of district vote outstanding so this story might change as more votes come in.

[jaichind]

https://election66.thaipbs.or.th/result

I did a manual calculation of vote share at the district and PR level

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       113        38      151                29.3%                    38.4%
PT         112        29      141                28.8%                    29.3%
BJT         67          3       70                 17.0%                      3.1%
PPP         39          1       40                   8.9%                      1.4%
UTN        23        13       36                    5.1%                   12.9%
DP          22          3       25                    5.1%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    2.5%                     0.5%
PP            7          2         9                    1.3%                     1.6%


PR counted: ~35 million
District counted: ~15 million

I think PR count is close to being down.  Still tons of district votes to come.

[jaichind]

https://www.ectreport.com/overview has more up-to-date district raw votes

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       113        38      151                26.1%                    38.4%
PT         112        29      141                25.3%                    29.3%
BJT         67          3       70                 13.9%                      3.1%
PPP         39          1       40                 11.2%                      1.4%
UTN        23        13       36                    9.6%                   12.9%
DP          22          3       25                    6.2%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    1.6%                     0.5% (regionalist)
PP            7          2         9                    0.9%                     1.6%
TST          5          1         6                    2.5%                     0.9%  (PT splitner)

PR counted: ~35 million
District counted: ~35 million

Looks like there was massive vote splitting by PT and MFP PR voters.  I think the pro-military bloc being "hopelessly divided" helped them.  PT and MFP voters started to view each other as the main "enemy" and cross-voted for pro-military parties to defeat the other on the district vote.

[jaichind]

The pro-military bloc (BJT PPP UTN DP) got a combined 19.9% on the PR vote but got a massive 40.9% on the district vote.   This produced 151 district seats vs 113 for MFP and 112 for PT despite the fact that all 4 ran candidates in every seat.  Their ability to get cross-votes from MFP and PT PR voters and tactically vote among their PR voters is amazing.

[jaichind]

https://www.ectreport.com/overview

Counting almost done

           District    PR     Total         District vote share      PR vote share
MFP       113        38      151                26.1%                    38.5%
PT         111        29      140                25.1%                    29.3%
BJT         68          3       71                 13.8%                      3.1%
PPP         39          1       40                 11.3%                      1.4%
UTN        23        13       36                    9.7%                   12.9%
DP          22          3       25                    6.2%                     2.5%
CP            9          1       10                    1.6%                     0.5% (regionalist)
PP            7          2         9                    0.9%                     1.6%
TST          5          1         6                    2.4%                     0.9%  (PT splitner)

PR counted: ~37 million
District counted: ~36 million

[jaichind]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/05/14/thailand-elections-pro-democracy-military-government/

"Pro-democracy opposition parties surge ahead in Thailand election"

People who write articles like this seem not to have followed this election.  The reality is the anti-military bloc totally underperformed.  The chances of a MFP-PT alliance forming government are zero especially with MFP becoming the bigger party there is no way PT will concede the PM to MFP and there is no way MFP will join forces with PT and give up the PM when they are the bigger party.  Once a MFP-PT alliance is out then the only alternative is a grand alliance of PT and other pro-miliary parties. I guess they will have to work out how to split up the loot.

[jaichind]

I still cannot get over the MFP PR vote share of 38.5% but the district votes share of 26.1%.  If someone is going to vote the most radical of the anti-military parties and "stick it to the system" why would the same voter then turn around and vote for a pro-military party candidate? 

My theory of pre-election polls with PT and MFP way ahead of a splintered pro-military field making MFP voters think their main opponent is PT explains some of this.  But even that logic has problems.  If PT and MFP are way ahead then why would the MFP PR voter tactically vote for a pro-military party to defeat PT?  Voting MFP on the district vote would make more sense.

The other theory which I am sure explains some of this is that the Thai voter ideology on PR but personality on the district ballot.  The fact is that many local kingpins must have been recruited by the different pro-military parties to run and then grabbed the personal vote.  PT used to be able to recruit these kingpins but PT has been out of power long enough that these local kingpins might have drifted to the pro-military parties. 

Had the MFP and PT PR voters voted MFP and PT on the district vote then they would have won a massive super majority between them. 

[jaichind]

I looked around.  This MFP and partly PT PR cross voting for pro-military parties is much greater in rural areas.   This sort of proves my theory of personality voting and MFP and PT PR voters cross voted for local kingpins in the district vote in rural areas.

I took a random example of Phetchabun in North Central Thailand

PPP won all 6 seats

District total votes

PPP    229,092
PT      122,785
MFP    112,290
DP       29,230
UTN     16,005
(rest are all trivial)

PR total vote

MFP   193,197
PT     172,154
UTN     51,147
PPP      19,910
DP       11,942
BJP       7,360
(rest trival)

Note that all most pro-military PR votes consolidated around PPP in the district vote.  There was significant cross voting by MFP and PT PR voters for PPP and what remained were split down the middle giving PPP as sweep even as MFP and PT completely dominated the PR vote.



Another example is Ratchaburi in Central Thailand.  The district seats were split PPP 3 UTN 2 or pro-military sweep.

District total votes

PPP          130,724
UTN         121,427
MFP         111,700
BJT           67,576
PT            51,846
DP            27,463
(rest trival)

PR total vote

MFP         228,420
PT             98,958
UTN           89,285
BJT            17,405
DP             13,118
PPP             9,922
(rest trival)

Here PPP and UTN and especially PPP got massive cross-voting from MFP and PT PR voters, especially MFP. 

[jaichind]

In Bangkok the anti-military PR vote mostly stayed with anti-military parties in the district race where it was MFP 32 PT 1 in an anti-military clean sweep.

District vote total

MFP       1,393,342
PT            638,675
UTN         512,101
DP           236,098
TST           97,594
PPP            81,658
BJT            77,428
(rest trivial)

PR vote total

MFP        1,594,775
UTN           628,619
PT             598,302
DP              85,703
TST             47,703
(rest trivial)

Note that the anti-military vote mostly stayed anti-military  in district vote while the pro-military vote did a OK but not great job in consolidating the pro-military vote in district votes which led to the anti-military sweep.