Is Southern California (minus LA County) similar to Nevada or Arizona politically?

[Cyrusman]

If you were to take Southern California ONLY minus Los Angeles County and look at its politically lean, would it be similar to either Nevada or Arizona? Essentially this would be San Diego, Imperial , Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino counties, which in itself would be more populated than several states. Just trying to get a gauge if this would be a red, blue, or purple state if So Cal, minus LA were its own state.

[kwabbit]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

[Del Tachi]

Southern California is most similar to Arkansas or Oklahoma demographically/historically

[Tintrlvr]

In terms of actual election results, Southern California minus LA County (and also minus Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties as you stated) in recent decades has been most similar to Colorado among all states. Not too far off of New Mexico, too. Not really that similar to Nevada or Arizona, although the trends are somewhat similar to Arizona. That might come as a surprise.

Demographically of course it has more similarities to Arizona and Nevada. But then again places like Orange County and San Diego are totally different from anything in either Arizona or Nevada. Only the Inland Empire and Imperial County bear some resemblance to them, and even then they aren't the same.

[Cyrusman]

In terms of actual election results, Southern California minus LA County (and also minus Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties as you stated) in recent decades has been most similar to Colorado among all states. Not too far off of New Mexico, too. Not really that similar to Nevada or Arizona, although the trends are somewhat similar to Arizona. That might come as a surprise.

Demographically of course it has more similarities to Arizona and Nevada. But then again places like Orange County and San Diego are totally different from anything in either Arizona or Nevada. Only the Inland Empire and Imperial County bear some resemblance to them, and even then they aren't the same.

You don't think Orange County is similar to Maricopa County?

[Хahar 🤔]

Southern California is most similar to Arkansas or Oklahoma demographically/historically

This is clever but I don't think it's accurate anywhere except Bakersfield. When southern California was peopled, it was by Midwesterners coming from the belt between Ohio and Iowa. You can see this influence in the very Midwestern way that so many of the communities east and south of Los Angeles have their own Protestant colleges, mostly established in the late 1880s: La Verne, Whittier, Pomona, Redlands. Northern California was not settled by these people and does not have many schools like these.

Oklahomans who came to southern California in the 1930s were viewed by the residents already there as little better than Mexicans. Of course they came in large numbers, but that burst of immigration did not last very long and outside of Bakersfield they did not define the local culture, because that was there before they were. From a political standpoint, the region's long Republican history has a lot more to do with Iowa than it does with Oklahoma.

[Torie]

Almost everyone in the audience here could be mistaken for my grandparents.



Interestingly, the clan members of that generation who actually moved to CA  from Iowa all moved to Norcal rather than Socal. One of them helped engineer the original Bay Bridge that collapsed in the quake.

[kwabbit]

Continuing my earlier post, how that state would be treated electorally is interesting. A 10 point swing to Clinton would've been the strongest by far out of any state. From what I remember it was a decent surprise just how strong Clinton did in California. I don't think anyone expected her to swing OC by 15 points, even if they thought she might win it. Like it would've probably been considered a swing state still until those results.

Yeah I looked it up, the polling average was Clinton +23. Clinton beat her polling in California more than any other state except Hawaii.

[ottermax]

Any ideas what state level poltiics would be like in a theoretical SoCal minus LA state?

I imagine it would have very similar energy to Arizona with a very loud conservative base that had control for decades losing power and refusing to modify their stances in spite of a changing demographic.

[Roll Roons]

Any ideas what state level poltiics would be like in a theoretical SoCal minus LA state?

I imagine it would have very similar energy to Arizona with a very loud conservative base that had control for decades losing power and refusing to modify their stances in spite of a changing demographic.

That sounds right. Some of those Orange County Republicans in the 70s and 80s were really out there.

My guess is both of its Senators would have been Republicans until very recently. If it had a Class III Senator, the GOP would have lost the seat in 2016 and made a serious effort to flip it back last year but fallen short.

[Cyrusman]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

[kwabbit]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

The country swung 10 points, so a 7 point trend. Obama to Clinton was a 12 point trend. Bush did very well in SoCal, winning OC by 20, SD by 6, Riverside by 16, and San Bernardino by 12. Bush won Correa's (Loretta Sanchez's at the time) district in OC. I'd have to see a precinct map, but I'm guessing he had to have won large portions of suburban LA County as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

The country swung 10 points, so a 7 point trend. Obama to Clinton was a 12 point trend. Bush did very well in SoCal, winning OC by 20, SD by 6, Riverside by 16, and San Bernardino by 12. Bush won Correa's (Loretta Sanchez's at the time) district in OC. I'd have to see a precinct map, but I'm guessing he had to have won large portions of suburban LA County as well.

It would be interesting to see a precinct map of CA in 2004. In any case, with those numbers, that would probably count as one of the biggest pro-Dem swings and trends from 2004>2016, no?

[kwabbit]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

The country swung 10 points, so a 7 point trend. Obama to Clinton was a 12 point trend. Bush did very well in SoCal, winning OC by 20, SD by 6, Riverside by 16, and San Bernardino by 12. Bush won Correa's (Loretta Sanchez's at the time) district in OC. I'd have to see a precinct map, but I'm guessing he had to have won large portions of suburban LA County as well.

It would be interesting to see a precinct map of CA in 2004. In any case, with those numbers, that would probably count as one of the biggest pro-Dem swings and trends from 2004>2016, no?

Yeah OC is up there. I found results by CD. Bush won the LA County/Orange based 42nd district handily 62-37 (Diamond Bar, Chino, Yorba Linda, Rowland Heights, Mission Viejo), the LA County/ San Bernardino based 26th (Arcadia, Glendora, Rancho Cucamonga), the 25th (North LA County), and the 24th (Ventura County and Santa Barbara). The incumbent protection map packed all the possibly Republican areas of LA County into districts extending into other GOP strongholds.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

San Bernardino County and Riverside County are very similar demographically to Nevada.

In the Southern California you described, it was Bush +13, Obama +4, Obama +2, Clinton +12, Biden +13.

That is a crazy swing from 04-08. Worse than 12-16.

The country swung 10 points, so a 7 point trend. Obama to Clinton was a 12 point trend. Bush did very well in SoCal, winning OC by 20, SD by 6, Riverside by 16, and San Bernardino by 12. Bush won Correa's (Loretta Sanchez's at the time) district in OC. I'd have to see a precinct map, but I'm guessing he had to have won large portions of suburban LA County as well.

It would be interesting to see a precinct map of CA in 2004. In any case, with those numbers, that would probably count as one of the biggest pro-Dem swings and trends from 2004>2016, no?

Yeah OC is up there. I found results by CD. Bush won the LA County/Orange based 42nd district handily 62-37 (Diamond Bar, Chino, Yorba Linda, Rowland Heights, Mission Viejo), the LA County/ San Bernardino based 26th (Arcadia, Glendora, Rancho Cucamonga), the 25th (North LA County), and the 24th (Ventura County and Santa Barbara). The incumbent protection map packed all the possibly Republican areas of LA County into districts extending into other GOP strongholds.

Crazy to think that a dozen years ago, the far southern parts of LA County were mostly in a Republican congressional district with few signs of being very vulnerable.

[King of Kensington]

This is clever but I don't think it's accurate anywhere except Bakersfield. When southern California was peopled, it was by Midwesterners coming from the belt between Ohio and Iowa. You can see this influence in the very Midwestern way that so many of the communities east and south of Los Angeles have their own Protestant colleges, mostly established in the late 1880s: La Verne, Whittier, Pomona, Redlands. Northern California was not settled by these people and does not have many schools like these.

Oklahomans who came to southern California in the 1930s were viewed by the residents already there as little better than Mexicans. Of course they came in large numbers, but that burst of immigration did not last very long and outside of Bakersfield they did not define the local culture, because that was there before they were. From a political standpoint, the region's long Republican history has a lot more to do with Iowa than it does with Oklahoma.

Wasn't Long Beach once known as Iowa-by-the-sea?

[King of Kensington]

Of the two Californian presidents, Reagan was born and grew up in Illinois and Nixon's parents were born in Indiana and Ohio.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Of the two Californian presidents, Reagan was born and grew up in Illinois and Nixon's parents were born in Indiana and Ohio.

Fitting for a state that drew tons of migration from other places to America (but especially the Midwest).
What is now associated with Florida was once associated with California.