The Hill: Van Hollen targeting N.J. seats, but state GOP officials unafraid

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Sam Youngman

Even though Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), the new chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), is targeting Republican-held seats in New Jersey, state GOP consultants say if Democrats couldn’t capitalize on their own party’s electoral successes last year, then those seats aren’t attainable in 2008.

Van Hollen, in an interview with The Hill, said that in addition to seats in Michigan and Connecticut, seats in blue New Jersey present “some opportunities” for pick-ups, though he didn’t specify which seats the committee is targeting.

Perhaps the most vulnerable of those seats is Rep. Mike Ferguson (R), who narrowly defeated state Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D), winning by just more than 1 percent in the wake of press reports alleging inappropriate conduct with a female college student at a Georgetown bar in 2004.

Ferguson, who denied the allegations, did not comment for this article.

Stender told The Hill this week she is “looking seriously” at going up against Ferguson again in 2008, and she will make a decision by “late summer, early fall.”

Stender said she has spoken with Van Hollen and former DCCC Chairman Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) about the possibility of another showdown with Ferguson.

“I am talking to them, and obviously they are interested in a rematch because the district now looks winnable,” Stender said.

But Ed Traz, a GOP consulting heavyweight in the Garden State, said taking on Ferguson in 2008 would be a “waste” of the DCCC’s money in light of the large number of resources the committee will need to devote to defending freshman incumbents in Republican districts.
“[For] Mike Ferguson, the time to get him was this past cycle,” Traz said. “You’re not going to catch him. I can’t see it ever being worse than it was in Jersey [last] year.”

Another high-level consultant familiar with New Jersey politics said that the additional two years Ferguson will be able to put between himself and the Georgetown incident will allow him time to regroup with voters who soured on him.

“2006 put a scare in him, I think,” the consultant said.

But Stender said she would begin another bid stronger than she was in 2006, having boosted her name recognition in the close race. Hopefully, she said, this would enable her to nullify some of Ferguson’s fundraising advantages.

Summit Mayor Jordan Glatt has also been mentioned as a possible challenger. Glatt did not return phone calls to his office by press time.

Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) is another possible target, but only if Assemblyman Jefferson Van Drew (D) can be persuaded to make a run, according to reports.

LoBiondo was never in danger in 2006, beating Democrat Viola Thomas-Hughes with 62 percent of the vote.

The only thing that might change that is the entrance of Van Drew, whom Traz regards as too “pragmatic” a politician to challenge the powerful LoBiondo this cycle.
“The only way Frank LoBiondo leaves Congress is when he decides he doesn’t want to do it anymore,” Traz said.

Van Drew did not return calls to his cell phone.

LoBiondo said he was “surprised” to see reports saying the DCCC is targeting him, given his margin of victory and the fact that he finished the race with about $1.3 million cash on hand in an environment hostile to Republicans across the country.

“Those numbers aren’t too shabby,” he said. “I’m not sure what they’re looking at.
“I’m not sure of a lot of things, but one of the things that I am sure of is I will not be caught asleep at the switch.”

In the state’s 5th district, Republican Rep. Scott Garrett should, by all traditional measures, be in significant trouble heading into 2008.

Garrett won last year with 55 percent of the vote, and a consultant familiar with the district said he has continued to be successful largely because of historically Republican Bergen County, part of which Garrett represents.

The problem, or problems, for Garrett lie in a county GOP that was once consolidated and strong, but in recent years has fallen into near-total disarray — the Rothenberg Report recently noted the party’s county headquarters was padlocked earlier this year because of failure to pay rent.

The phones at the county headquarters are apparently disconnected; repeated calls to the number listed on its website were met with an operator’s message.

That “collapse,” as the consultant put it, could lead to a primary challenge for Garrett, opening the door to an early-funded Democrat riding the strength of a county Democratic Party that has grown in influence.

http://www.hillnews.com/thehill/export/TheHill/News/Campaign/021407_van.html

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

[Keystone Phil]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

[TeePee4Prez]

I also think NJ 3 would be contested if Saxton retires or possibly redrawn.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

What? You once mocked me for saying that NJ-2 would be a tossup once LoBiondo retired.

[Keystone Phil]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

What? You once mocked me for saying that NJ-2 would be a tossup once LoBiondo retired.

I knew that this would be brought up.

You said that looking it would be a tossup with little to no knowledge of potential candidate and the area. Van Drew is one of very, very small number of prominent Dems in NJ 2. He's the one that would stand a chance. "Generic Dem" doesn't win this district. Van Drew could win but even then it would be tough for him to hold onto the seat.

[Mr.Phips]

LoBo will win easily unless Van Drew is nominated. If Van Drew gets it, it'll be close but the GOP will keep the seat. Whenever NJ 2 opens up, expect Van Drew to be the candidate and a real tough fight.

What? You once mocked me for saying that NJ-2 would be a tossup once LoBiondo retired.

I knew that this would be brought up.

You said that looking it would be a tossup with little to no knowledge of potential candidate and the area. Van Drew is one of very, very small number of prominent Dems in NJ 2. He's the one that would stand a chance. "Generic Dem" doesn't win this district. Van Drew could win but even then it would be tough for him to hold onto the seat.

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

[Keystone Phil]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

[MarkWarner08]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

[Keystone Phil]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

[MarkWarner08]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

Thanks. Harry Mitchell is the former Mayor of Tempe who beat J.D Hayworth.

NJ-02 went 55%-43% for Gore in 2000 and 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Was that the 9-11 effect, or is this district getting more Republican?

[Mr.Phips]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

The area is changing.  Reagan carried the district by nearly a two to one margin in 1980 and 1984.  Bush SR carried it by 18 points in 1988.  Clinton won it by a point in 1992 and by a larger margin in 1996.  Gore carried the district by 11 points in 2000 and Bush and Kerry were essentially tied here in 2004, mainly due to the 9/11 effect.

[Mr.Phips]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

Thanks. Harry Mitchell is the former Mayor of Tempe who beat J.D Hayworth.

NJ-02 went 55%-43% for Gore in 2000 and 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Was that the 9-11 effect, or is this district getting more Republican?

Mostly 9/11 effect.  Both Corzine and Menendez carried the district comfortably in their 2005 and 2006 races.

[Keystone Phil]

If Van Drew won here it would likely be his for as long as he wanted it.  Do you remember Bill Hughes?  He was a Democrat and easily won this seat from 1974 to 1994,  and this was when this area was much more Republican. 

I think Van Drew would have to go through some tough races at first though. I'll conceed that he is very popular and well known but the GOP will put in everything they have to defend this seat.

Is Van Drew like Harry Mitchell? A venerable Dem who can win in an otherwise conservative suburban district.

I don't know who Mitchell is but your description fits very well. Let there be no doubt, though, that NJ 2 is changing. I'm not saying that the area is a model of conservativism or anything. However, the area still leans to the right.

Thanks. Harry Mitchell is the former Mayor of Tempe who beat J.D Hayworth.

NJ-02 went 55%-43% for Gore in 2000 and 50%-49% for Bush in 2004. Was that the 9-11 effect, or is this district getting more Republican?

Mostly 9/11 effect.  Both Corzine and Menendez carried the district comfortably in their 2005 and 2006 races.

As we both stated, the area is changing but we'll have to wait to see how a House race would go. Republicans greatly outnumber Dems in terms of local government which might, or might not, have an impact on how they'd vote in an open race.

Bottom line - You need Van Drew for this seat.

[MAS117]

I also think NJ 3 would be contested if Saxton retires or possibly redrawn.

The only way the Third would be a race is if Saxton retired. I could see it possibly moving Dem if that was the case, but only under certain circumstances.

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

[Keystone Phil]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

Haha...brush up on the law, my friend.



Here...take this...




...wipe the egg off your face.

[Mr.Phips]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

No, the GOP plan in the South was to trick blacks into creating majority-minority districts that packed all of the black(read 95% Democratic) voters into one district, leaving the adjecent districts whiter and heavily Republican.  This is a big part of why Republicans took control of the House in 1994.  

In Alabama in 1992, they created a 70% black district which is AL-07(now its 61% black).  The old AL-07 was about 35% black and elected blue dog Democrats.  By packing so many blacks into AL-07, they took blacks out of AL-06 which was once 40% black(now only 7%) in to defeat an incumbent Democrat.  It also took blacks out of AL-02 so the Democrat would fall short in the open seat race in November.  The Democrats lost two House seats in Alabama aloe because of this.

In Georgia in 1992, they created two heavily black districts GA-02(57%) and GA-11(64% black).  GA-02 had previously been 32% black and elected blue dog Democrats and GA-11 was new district.  Well all of this led to a drop in the black percentage in GA-01, GA-03, GA-04, and GA-08 which had all been Democratic seats.  Between the 1992 and 1994 elections, Democrats lost all five seats to Republicans as a result.

Similar situations occured in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida denying Democratic victories in another five seats.

  

[MarkWarner08]

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

Unlikely. Redistricting in New Jersey (for Congress, State Legislature, and County Freeholders) are done by non-partisan commissions. Gerrymandering simply does not happen in New Jersey, it is one of the few things that we do right in this state.

Mea Culpa. I assumed the 7-6 split was created my gerrymandering. I should have done some research. I offer my humblest apologies to any offended people.

I'm sorry.

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

Haha...brush up on the law, my friend.



Here...take this...




...wipe the egg off your face.

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

[MarkWarner08]

B

We have to wait until redistricting to pick up NJ seats, but we almost certainly will after that.

Why do you say that?

Because the Dems will likely control redistricting and undo the egregious GOP gerrymandering plan. If  NJ loses 1 seat, the new delegation could be 9-3 in favor of the Democrats.

I can't wait till the Democrats get greedy and squeeze out all those worthless NE Republicans.  The GOP plan in the South was to get rid of white Democrats in order to convince anglo voters that the Democrats are the "weird sex and minority party" to quote Grover Norquist. My plan is to get rid of ALL Northeast Republicans.

Chris Shays,  besa mi culo!

No, the GOP plan in the South was to trick blacks into creating majority-minority districts that packed all of the black(read 95% Democratic) voters into one district, leaving the adjecent districts whiter and heavily Republican.  This is a big part of why Republicans took control of the House in 1994. 

In Alabama in 1992, they created a 70% black district which is AL-07(now its 61% black).  The old AL-07 was about 35% black and elected blue dog Democrats.  By packing so many blacks into AL-07, they took blacks out of AL-06 which was once 40% black(now only 7%) in to defeat an incumbent Democrat.  It also took blacks out of AL-02 so the Democrat would fall short in the open seat race in November.  The Democrats lost two House seats in Alabama aloe because of this.

In Georgia in 1992, they created two heavily black districts GA-02(57%) and GA-11(64% black).  GA-02 had previously been 32% black and elected blue dog Democrats and GA-11 was new district.  Well all of this led to a drop in the black percentage in GA-01, GA-03, GA-04, and GA-08 which had all been Democratic seats.  Between the 1992 and 1994 elections, Democrats lost all five seats to Republicans as a result.

Similar situations occured in Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida denying Democratic victories in another five seats.

 

Yes, operation rat, as Ben Ginsberg called it. The plan was to pack black voters into heavily black districts, thus diluting the Democratic vote in other non minority majority districts. It worked.

I think my earlier description was apt. No need to jump on a turtle that's already on its back.

[Keystone Phil]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

[MarkWarner08]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

[Keystone Phil]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

Touche

[MarkWarner08]

I feel like the press corps after Truman invited many of them to the White House to celebrate their ill-fated prognostications with a dinner of symbolic crow.

By the way, this is still up for some reason - www.house.gov/gerlach

By the way, this is not up for some reason --

www.house.gov/hart

Touche

Someday, the Democrats will find a candidate from Chester County. That day will be the last time Jim Gerlach serves in Congress.