India 2023 assembly elections
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jaichind
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« Reply #75 on: January 27, 2023, 09:01:26 AM »

https://www.socialnews.xyz/2023/01/27/tripuras-tipra-to-contest-feb-16-polls-alone-makes-all-parties-anxious/

"Tripura’s TIPRA to contest Feb 16 polls alone, makes all parties anxious"

With both BJP and Left Front-INC refusing to commit to Greater Tripraland TIPRA will contest alone.  This sets up BJP vs TIPRA in tribal seats and BJP vs Left Front-INC in Bengali seats.  BJP, by talking to TIPRA about Tripraland until the last minute, gave up some of its strategic advantage in the Bengali seats by projecting itself as the Bengali party.
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jaichind
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« Reply #76 on: January 27, 2023, 09:25:40 AM »

Other info from India Today C-Voter Mood the Nation poll

For LS elections the tidbits that came out are

1) Bihar, UPA 25 out of 40 seats with 47% of the vote -> RJD-JD(U)-INC-Left alliance gets the upper hand over BJP
2) Maharastra, UPA 34 out of 48 seats with 48% of the vote -> SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance defeats BJP-BSHS
3) Karnataka, UPA 17 out of 28 seats with 43% of the vote -> INC defeats BJP
4) Assam, NDA  12 out of 14 seats -> Hindu consolidation gives a near sweep for BJP with Muslim vote split between INC and AIUDF
5) Telangana, BJP 6 out of 14 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019
6) WB BJP 20 out of 42 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019 when many expect a BJP implosion
7) UP NDA 70 out of 80  -> NDA gains 6 seats from 2019 due to the split of SP and BSP
8 ) AP -> TDP 10 out of 25 seats, which means YSRCP wins 15

This list seems pretty close to CW.  The odd one out is WB which, given organizational decay, one would expect BJP to lose seats from its massive 2019 performance.  This poll has BJP gaining 2 seats which is massive.

Over the poll has

NDA 298 (BJP 284) UPA 153 (INC 68) Others 92.  Going by the info they gave above and doing some reverse engineering I concluded

1) BJP still dominates in the Hindi heartland and Gujarat.  INC makes tiny gains there.
2) INC only does well when they are in alliance with other large parties (Bihar, Maharashtra, Jharkhand) and even there they help their allies but underperform in their own seats.
3) UPA does well in Deep South just like in 2019 even as Left Front regains a bit of ground in Kerala and the AIADMK-BJP bloc regains some ground in TN.  BJP seems to outperform in TN even as AIADMK underperforms.
4) NE still continues to be dominated by NDA
5) NDA allies underperform (BSHS in Maharashtra) or are totally dependent on BJP (AD in UP, JJP in Haryana, AGP in Assam)
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jaichind
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« Reply #77 on: January 27, 2023, 09:31:08 AM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/visakhapatnam/bjp-not-keen-to-ally-with-tdp-in-andhra-pradesh/articleshow/97295553.cms

"BJP not keen to ally with TDP in Andhra Pradesh"

It seems for now the JSP idea of a TDP-JSP-BJP alliance in AP is not supported by the BJP.  But there is plenty of time between now and 2024.  BJP will most likely seek out YSRCP or TDP to be an ally for the 2024 elections.  BJP might prefer YSRCP but BJP ally JSP clearly prefers TDP so the deadlock will continue.
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jaichind
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« Reply #78 on: January 27, 2023, 12:06:40 PM »

https://www.eastmojo.com/tripura/2023/01/27/tripura-ex-tmc-president-cpim-mla-join-bjp-for-party-ticket/

"Tripura: Ex-TMC president, CPIM MLA join BJP for party ticket"

Head of Tripura AITC Subal Bhowmik re-defects to BJP.

Subal Bhowmik was with INC but defected to BJP in 2016.  He was farsighted since he saw the BJP surge come and became he joined BJP fairly early in their surge he was made BJP VP of Tripura.  He ran and won on the BJP ticket in the 2018 assembly elections.  After he was denied an LS ticket in 2019 he defected back to INC to run for INC and was defeated by the BJP candidate.   Then he joined AITC and became the head of the AITC in Tripura.   Then he saw that AITC will go nowhere so he now defected back to BJP and most likely run for the same seat he won on the BJP ticket in 2018.  All well that ends well.

The speech he gave when re-joining BJP is
Quote
After PM Modi came to power at the Centre, Tripura has been recognised and development of the state has taken place. The work of 6 National Highways is underway in a small state like Tripura. Tripura has also got an international airport under the leadership of the Prime Minister. PM Modi took the Northeast to the international platform

In 2021 when he joined AITC his speech was
Quote
Now, it is possible to form a government in Tripura under the leadership of Trinamool leader Mamata Banerjee in the 2023 assembly elections. I am 100 percent sure

All of which fits with my generic newspaper article on Indian politician defection.  All the newspaper editor has to do is fill in the names to fit with the particular defection

<Politician A> has left <Party X> to join <Party Y> along with his/her followers.  Speaking in the presence of <Leader M> of <Party Y> with his/her followers, <Politician A> indicated that he/she was being sidelined in <Party X> and frustrated by the increasingly autocratic nature of the way <Party X> was run and led by <Leader N who is most likely a rival of Leader M>.   <Politician A> also said that he/she was disturbed by the anti-People policies of <Party X> and decided that the only way he/she can fight for pro-People policies is to join <Party Y>.  <Politician A> concluded by saying that he/she does not seek any nomination for any office and only wishes to fight as a regular party worker for <Party Y> under the leadership of <Leader M> in the upcoming elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: January 28, 2023, 05:59:37 AM »

The BJP Tripura candidate list is mostly out.  Other than a few sitting MLAs and those that defected to INC or TIPRA, most 2018 winners were re-nominated.    BJP left out a few difficult seats and some seats that IPFT ran in 2018.  I think the basic idea for those IPFT seats is for BJP to wait for the TIPRA candidate to come out.  Some IPFT MLAs might be left high and dry and will run back to run for BJP.

Still, overall not a house cleaning by the BJP.  It seems BJP will try to win by holding on to the traditional INC vote and hoping the power of federal subsidies can power them to victory over clear anti-incumbency on the ground.  A big house cleaning risks massive rebellions by sitting MLAs (most of which do not have roots with BJP anyway) even if that mitigates local anti-incumbency.

So the next shoe to drop would be the TIPRA list.
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: January 28, 2023, 09:37:11 AM »

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/looks-like-operation-lotus-is-on-tipra-chief-claims-ipft-leaders-not-picking-up-calls-tripura-assembly-elections-1578562

"Looks Like 'Operation Lotus' Is On: TIPRA Chief Claims IPFT Leaders Not Picking Up Calls"

TIPRA claims that suddenly IPFT has gone silent on seat-sharing/merger talks and that most likely BJP used $$$ to get IPFT back into NDA>  The main problem with that narrative is that it seems BJP plans to contest all 60 seats.  It could be BJP is going to buy SOME IPFT leaders to run as BJP but not buying the entire party.
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jaichind
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« Reply #81 on: January 28, 2023, 10:57:14 AM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/election/tripura-polls-bjp-ipft-alliance-to-continue-five-seats-given-to-ipft-1185521.html

"Tripura polls: BJP-IPFT alliance to continue, five seats given to IPFT"

In Tripura, IPFT went back to NDA but will be given only 5 seats versus the 9 it got in 2018.  It seems IPFT must have been offered 2-3 seats by TIPRA and decided to go back to BJP even if it is a bad deal compared to 2018.  The fact is a good part of the IPFT base has gone over to TIPRA.  I doubt it will win any of the 5 seats it was given.
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: January 29, 2023, 05:56:21 AM »
« Edited: January 29, 2023, 06:23:56 AM by jaichind »

TIPRA nominates 20 candidates so far.  8 are in non-tribal seats and we know they will run in all 20 tribal seats so that means TIPRA will nominate at least 28 candidates.  Most likely they will be at 35-40 seats when they are done since there are around 15-20 non-tribal seats where there is some number of tribals.


Ecological inference in tribal seats has the BJP getting a big swing in 2018 with tribals.  So TIPRA running in non-tribal seats tend to hit the BJP more.

Separately INC was given 13 seats by Left Front but they will run in 5 other seats where the Left Front is running.  I looked, those 5 seats were most likely going to go BJP no matter what so this was an INC move to try to preserve what is left of their base.

My current guess for Tripura's results are

BJP         26
CPM        16
TIPRA     15
INC          3

Most likely post-election BJP find a way to rope in TIPRA to form the government with inducements of office and federal subsidies.
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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: January 29, 2023, 07:03:31 AM »

India TV LS poll has NDA 298 (BJP 284) which is a clone of the India Today MOTN C-Voter survey.  I assume both media outlets used C-Voter to do the polling ergo they get the same result.
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jaichind
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« Reply #84 on: January 29, 2023, 09:02:57 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CkuDD8ZC0o&ab_channel=NDTV

NDTV video pointed out that in the leadup to the Meghalaya assembly election, 20 out of 60 MLAs jumped ship to run for another party.   Of course, the same was true for the 2018 assembly elections as well.

In Meghalaya 20 of 60 MLA since they were elected in 2013 had switched sides making a farce of the Anti-Defection law.

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jaichind
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« Reply #85 on: January 30, 2023, 01:41:43 PM »

https://www.tripuratimes.com/ttimes/brother-sister-face-off-in-badharghat-lt-mla-dilip-sarkar%E2%80%99s-siblings-nominated-as-bjp-congress-candidates-5991.html

"Brother Sister Face-off in Badharghat: Lt MLA Dilip Sarkar’s Siblings nominated as BJP, Congress candidates"

In the Tripura seat of Badharghat, the 2018 BJP winner and long-time INC leader turned defector Dilip Sarkar passed away in 2019 and the BJP nominated his sister to run in the by-election and won.  Now she is running for re-election INC nominated her brother Raj Kumar Sarkar to run against his sister.

The sister focuses on carrying out her brother's legacy while her older brother focuses on the fact that their deceased brother was with INC his entire life and that his legacy is with the INC.
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xelas81
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« Reply #86 on: January 30, 2023, 04:19:02 PM »

Are the recent news about Adani Group such as closeness to Modi/BJP and allegations of market manipulation are having any impact in India?
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jaichind
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« Reply #87 on: January 30, 2023, 05:12:44 PM »

Are the recent news about Adani Group such as closeness to Modi/BJP and allegations of market manipulation are having any impact in India?

I was about to write about that. 
I think it hurts the Modi economic reformer narrative.  But that will only hurt the BJP with the urban upper middle class vote which is fairly small part of Modi's base.  The harm will more be about less money that the  Adani Group can donate to BJP in the coming years.
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jaichind
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« Reply #88 on: January 31, 2023, 11:11:54 AM »

Looks like TIPRA will run 42 candidates in the Tripura assembly elections.  I will be very interested to see how many tribal votes they pull in in non-tribal seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #89 on: February 01, 2023, 04:57:46 AM »

The percent of the Indian budget that goes to interest is surprisingly high.  The good news for India is that with a fairly high structure inflation nominal GDP growth is fairly high which can help deflate the real value of outstanding debt which I guess is one of the reasons why interest payments have to be high.
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jaichind
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« Reply #90 on: February 01, 2023, 09:07:38 AM »

Looks like some of the TIPRA candidates in Tripura are Bengali or Muslim (Bengali Muslim).  This is a first case of a Tripura tribal party nominating non-tribal candidates.   This shows TIPRA leader Pradyot Deb Barma has hopes to win as opposed to just being a pressure group.
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jaichind
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« Reply #91 on: February 01, 2023, 09:11:42 AM »

In Meghalaya, all major parties are going all out to run candidates everywhere.  NPP AITC INC and most likely UDP and BJP will pretty much run in all 60 seats.

The results will tell us if the INC base votes for the party or for the local INC leaders.  As mentioned all INC MLAs have defected and will run for other parties.  In 2022 Goa the same thing took place with all INC MLAs elected in 2017 pretty much had defected by the elections.  BJP won but INC was the clear alternative which showed the INC base in Goa voted for the party and not the local INC leader.  We will have a similar test coming up.

I view is still that NPP wins with UDP coming in second and INC BJP and AITC fighting for third with INC most likely to come out ahead which would mostly show that a good chunk of the INC vote will still go with INC even in a losing effort.
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jaichind
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« Reply #92 on: February 01, 2023, 09:19:05 AM »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/indian-tycoons-bought-adani-shares-amid-short-seller-fight

"Indian Tycoons Bought Adani Shares During Short Seller Fight"

In the Adani vs Hindenburg fight it seems with a critical share sale other Indian billionaires came in to rescue Adani.  This move by Adani's domestic business rivals is being played in the Indian media as a Indian nationalist consolidation against Western capital.  The motivations of such a move is unclear.  It could be they also go pressure from BJP plus a sense of "if Western finance can bring down Adani, we might be next"

Of course right after the Credit Suisse Group stopped accepting Adani bonds as collateral which led to another rout for Adani shares.  The fact that Credit Suisse Group is part of the West financial establishment will future play up the India vs West financial battle narrative. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #93 on: February 02, 2023, 05:58:31 AM »

In Tripura Left Front and INC made a last minute deal where both sides pulled candidates that ran in seats that were allocated to the other camp.  So Left Front-INC alliance will be perfect (43 CPM, 1 CPI, 1 AIFB, 1 RSP, 1 pro-CPM Ind, 13 INC).  There were rumors of a last minute CPM-TIPRA tactical deal.  Turns out that was not true.
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jaichind
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« Reply #94 on: February 02, 2023, 09:24:46 AM »

Just to give you a sense of where in Tripura the BJP is worried about. Out of 26 Bengali seats that the BJP won in 2018, only 5 sitting BJP MLAs are not re-nominated. Out of the 18 Tribal seats BJP-IPFT winners in 2018, 11 sitting MLAs will not be re-nominated.  It is clear BJP is very worried about tribal seats and are swapping out candidates relative to 2018 to try to save the situation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #95 on: February 03, 2023, 09:30:13 AM »

Big anti-love jihad protest in Mumbai.  This is clearly a move to try to shift SHS(B) votes to BSHS in the upcoming BMC election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #96 on: February 04, 2023, 04:59:28 AM »

Karnataka assembly betting markets have it neck-to-neck between BJP and INC in a hung assembly

BJP    95-98
INC    89-92
JD(S) 22-23
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omar04
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« Reply #97 on: February 05, 2023, 03:47:51 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/04/business/adani-modi-india.html

Interesting article on the Adani group's crash in market value. If this emerged a few months earlier it may've played a role in the Gujarat Assembly elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #98 on: February 05, 2023, 06:11:35 AM »

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/04/business/adani-modi-india.html

Interesting article on the Adani group's crash in market value. If this emerged a few months earlier it may've played a role in the Gujarat Assembly elections.

Perhaps.  But the BJP Gujarat government was already unpopular.  Their landslide was purely a favorite son vote for Modi.  The way Adani is playing this is to say that this is a Western attempt at holding back the economic development of India and that the Adani group is taking this hit for India.  It seems likely that this narrative would have played well with the Modi favorite son narrative (Adani himself is also Gujarati) so I doubt this story coming out would have changed much.   For INC to gain from it would be for INC to thread the needle of pointing out the Adani scandals in a way that still projects Indian patriotism which just seems hard to do.
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jaichind
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« Reply #99 on: February 06, 2023, 05:18:45 AM »

The  Adani group trouble could hit the BJP in assembly elections but will not hurt the Modi brand in 2024. 

One way to look at it would be to look at the Hindu vote in WB between 2019 and 2021.  BJP outperformed in the 2019 WB LS elections on a Modi wave which receded by 2021 leading to an AITC landslide.

A breakdown of 2019 vs 2021 shows that Modi pushed up the lower income and poor Hindu vote for BP in 2019 which went back to AITC in 2021.  Note that higher-income Hindus actually voted for BJP at a higher rate in 2021 than in 2019.  AITC's Mamata Banerjee has a strong populist image has something to do with this but this also shows that Modi also has a strong populist image.



The people that will care about Adani would be middle-class and upper-middle-class urban Hindu voters which could hit the BJP in assembly elections in urban areas.  But when Modi is at the top of the ticket the lower-income and poor will shift over to the BJP and they do not care about  Adani let alone understand what is going on there.  That is just another world away from them.
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