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jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: January 26, 2023, 04:54:00 AM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.
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jaichind
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« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2023, 05:15:43 AM »

In India, elections are won ahead of time by the narrative of the election.  For the BJP the narrative has to be Hindu vs Muslim.  For the opposition, the narrative has to be forward vs backward OR tribal identity or regional identity (with the exception of Gujarat where regional identity helps the BJP.)   The more an entity outside the BJP (in this case the BBC) wants to talk about Muslims the better it is for the BJP.  This is especially true for LS elections. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: January 26, 2023, 05:21:34 AM »

https://nenow.in/north-east-news/tripura/tripura-assembly-elections-ipft-suspends-general-secretary-anti-party-activities.html

"Ahead of Tripura assembly elections, IPFT suspends its general secretary for ‘anti-party activities’"

This almost certainly has to do with the current tribal-based ex-BJP ally IPFT plans to merge into TIPRA which is leading to an internal conflict within IPFT.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2023, 10:04:05 AM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct

Perish the thought, eh.

The truth is surely that neither of the above is as simplistic as painted there.

But there is still enough substance in both accusations to reflect badly on him.
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jaichind
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« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2023, 12:08:25 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct

Perish the thought, eh.

The truth is surely that neither of the above is as simplistic as painted there.

But there is still enough substance in both accusations to reflect badly on him.

Sure, as long as the BBC knows that these documentaries only help Modi/BJP electoral prospects in 2024.  In fact I am sure Modi order social media to censor these documentaries exactly to get the opposition (INC) to complain about it as to make sure potential BJP voters are aware of such documentaries. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: January 26, 2023, 01:39:18 PM »

India Today semi-annual Mood of the Nation poll (done by C-Voter)

LS elections - NDA with a smaller majority than in 2019

            Seats       Vote share
NDA       298            43
UPA       153            30
Others     92            27




Modi's approval/disapproval at 72/16 and going up



Performance of NDA 67/18 and rising



Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra gets mixed reviews



Cultural issues heavy in favor of the BJP

Uniform Civil Code - Yes/No at 69/19


Should Hijab be banned in schools Yes/No 57/26

Are Muslim men engaging in Love Jihad Yes/No 53/33


The  Muslim men engaging in Love Jihad Yes/No 53/33 is a massively positive number for BJP.  The 2024 BJP campaign should just be shouting "Muslim, Muslim, Muslim" over and over again.
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« Reply #56 on: January 26, 2023, 04:59:08 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct

Perish the thought, eh.

The truth is surely that neither of the above is as simplistic as painted there.

But there is still enough substance in both accusations to reflect badly on him.

Sure, as long as the BBC knows that these documentaries only help Modi/BJP electoral prospects in 2024.  In fact I am sure Modi order social media to censor these documentaries exactly to get the opposition (INC) to complain about it as to make sure potential BJP voters are aware of such documentaries. 
I don't think the Indian electoral effects are uppermost in the BBC's thinking when it decides on its programming.
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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: January 26, 2023, 06:53:36 PM »

In the 2018 Meghalaya assembly elections INC won 21 seats out of 60 seats. This made INC the largest party in 2018.  The number of INC MLAs that will run for re-election for INC is zero.

Out of the 21 INC winners of 2018

7 joined AITC with 6 of them running for re-election as AITC (one, a former INC CM, has his daughter running as AITC in his seat)
6 joined NPP and will run for re-election as NPP
4 joined UDP and will run for re-election as UDP
1 joined BJP and will run for re-election as BJP
3 passed away

And if you think the INC list of candidates will have no incumbents you will be wrong.  It turns out that the single NCP MLA elected in 2018 has defected to INC and will most likely run for INC.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #58 on: January 26, 2023, 07:06:26 PM »

In the 2018 Meghalaya assembly elections INC won 21 seats out of 60 seats. This made INC the largest party in 2018.  The number of INC MLAs that will run for re-election for INC is zero.

Out of the 21 INC winners of 2018

7 joined AITC with 6 of them running for re-election as AITC (one, a former INC CM, has his daughter running as AITC in his seat)
6 joined NPP and will run for re-election as NPP
4 joined UDP and will run for re-election as UDP
1 joined BJP and will run for re-election as BJP
3 passed away

And if you think the INC list of candidates will have no incumbents you will be wrong.  It turns out that the single NCP MLA elected in 2018 has defected to INC and will most likely run for INC.
If I had a hundred thousand lakh ruphees for every defecting MLA in Meghalaya, I would be the richest man in India.
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« Reply #59 on: January 26, 2023, 07:11:39 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #60 on: January 26, 2023, 08:49:00 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
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Computer89
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« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2023, 09:33:40 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.

Some people I know are also wondering whether or not this documentary was released to try to make the first Hindu PM be questioned about the UK’s relation with India .

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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #62 on: January 26, 2023, 10:11:15 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #63 on: January 26, 2023, 10:44:08 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #64 on: January 26, 2023, 11:01:57 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?
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« Reply #65 on: January 26, 2023, 11:34:28 PM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?

1. No and he was cleared by the courts and keep in mind the courts lean liberal in India especially back then .

2. No , the CAA does not lengthen the time it takes for Muslim immigrants to become citizens so this part is false . Also Modi is trying to get rid of special religious exemptions from laws and move to a uniform civil code which is actually what secularism is about
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2023, 01:54:19 AM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?
Can we consider that BBC's way of operating seems to be driven by a desire to court controversy and is unlikely to hold the truth in the highest of regard?
You don't have to consider the handling of the riots in 2002 to be masterminded by Modi in order to be able to justify thinking less of Modi because of it.
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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2023, 03:46:24 AM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?

1. No and he was cleared by the courts and keep in mind the courts lean liberal in India especially back then .

2. No , the CAA does not lengthen the time it takes for Muslim immigrants to become citizens so this part is false . Also Modi is trying to get rid of special religious exemptions from laws and move to a uniform civil code which is actually what secularism is about
1. The SIT sent by the Supreme Court recommended against prosecution. The amicus curae report strongly disagreed. Also of note the local prosecutor working with them resigned accusing them of intimidating witnesses to protect the state government.

The NHRC, a Concerned Citizens Tribunal set up by former judges and chaired by a retired SC justice, the British Foreign Ministry, and the US State Department all also disagree, finding the state government’s actions created the conditions for the pogrom and through either deliberate inaction or incomprehensibly gross negligence stood as a party to it, if not aiding it unofficially.

Following the train fire, Modi immediately declared it an act of terrorism by unnamed jihadis and BJP politicians spread conspiracy theories about Pakistani intelligence. FWIW, the railway authority determined the fire and accident but a two man commission run by Modi’s personal ally decided it was an attack by a phantom mob of thousands of jihadis.

In the following three days police sat in their barracks and ignored emergency calls while mobs  raped, tortured, and burned alive people in public before the state let them intervene.

150,000 people were displaced into refugee camps. Modi’s government, per organizers, only funded relief for about half, ran a systematic campaign to coerce refugees to leave, and made public pronouncements that refugee camps had to be shut down because Muslims were breeding.

Following the riots every single case against Hindu perpetrators was dismissed by the Gujarat courts until the Supreme Court ordered a change of venue and retrial years later.

No reasonable person can look at this and not conclude that at the most charitable Modi doesn’t give a damn about mass murder and happily ran a government that incited and ignored it’s perpetration.

2. What? The laws explicitly grant citizenship to any non-Muslim arriving in India before 2014 and explicitly excludes Muslims, who have to have proof that they or a direct relative were in India prior to 1970s (btw good luck finding that if you’re one of the millions in underdeveloped areas). I don’t know how you can spin that as ‘secularism’.




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Buffalo Mayor Young Kim
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« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2023, 03:51:00 AM »

Episode 2 of the BBC documentary on Modi came out.

Episode 1 basically is "Modi is the mastermind behind the 2002 Gujarat riots"
Episode 2 basically is "Under Modi, Indian Muslims are second-class citizens"

One can debate if these characterizations are correct.  But what is not in dispute is that a Western liberal woke media making these documentaries will merely consolidate political support for the regime as is the case in all other situations like this.   Worst for INC,  the BBC will be viewed to be in league with INC and only help BJP at the national level.

Also this is the issue with creating the precedent that “misinformation” should be taken down . Once the precedent was created , it’s gonna be used more and more and that is something that isn’t good
Frankly irresponsible of the BBC if we're being honest with ourselves. A fake news documentary that makes Modi look better in the eyes of his people helps nobody but the BBC.
I’m sorry ‘fake news’?

Seriously?
Ever heard of the boy who cried wolf?
Exactly what are you disputing?

Where’s the lies?

Was Narendra Modi not complicit in the mass murder of Muslims in Gujarat?
Is the Indian government under Modi not systematically discriminating against Muslims in India?
Can we consider that BBC's way of operating seems to be driven by a desire to court controversy and is unlikely to hold the truth in the highest of regard?
You don't have to consider the handling of the riots in 2002 to be masterminded by Modi in order to be able to justify thinking less of Modi because of it.
Modi didn’t have to mastermind anything. He incited them, he ensured police wouldn’t stop them, and the local courts and police under his party’s control prevented the prosecution of the perpetrators. That’s complicity
That’s crimes against the human race

Full disclosure I haven’t seen the BBC doc, but I’ve been waiting so damn long for anyone to give a damn that India is run by a mass murdering crypto-fascist that I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.
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jaichind
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« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2023, 04:24:05 AM »

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/nitish-targets-kushwaha-says-can-leave-the-day-he-wants-to-101674668945137.html

"Bihar CM Nitish Kumar asks 'close aide' Upendra Kushwaha to quit JD(U). Why?"

In Bihar, we are entering into round 3 of Upendra Kushwaha's rebellion against JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar.  Upendra Kushwaha who is a caste leader of the influential Kushwaha caste was a protégé of Nitish Kumar and followed Nitish Kumar throughout his career in the 1980s and 1990s. 

In 2007 Upendra Kushwaha wanted to be Nitish Kumar's political successor and sensed that this was not in Nitish Kumar's plans split and founded RSP.  The two reconciled later in 2007 and RSP was merged back into JD(U)

In 2013  Upendra Kushwaha rebelled again and formed RLSP.  JD(U) split with BJP in 2013 was convenient for Upendra Kushwaha since he was able to ally with BJP.  This changed in 2017 when JD(U) returned to its alliance with BJP which given the Nitish Kumar-Upendra Kushwaha hostility lead  Upendra Kushwaha to join the RJD-INC alliance for the 2019 LS elections.  Upendra Kushwaha split from UPA for the 2020 assembly elections and ran alone.   In 2021 Upendra Kushwaha reconciled with Nitish Kumar and merged RLDP into JD(U) becoming in many ways the #2 in JD(U)

Now in 2023, after Nitish Kumar split with BJP in 2022, Upendra Kushwaha  sees a chance to re-run the 2013 playbook and perhaps go over to the BJP again so he is raising the banner of rebellion against Nitish Kumar and will leave JD(U) soon with his own faction with the clear result that his new party will align with BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2023, 04:56:12 AM »

https://www.business-standard.com/article/politics/cpi-m-mla-cong-leader-to-join-bjp-ahead-of-tripura-assembly-polls-123012700609_1.html

"CPI(M) MLA, Cong leader to join BJP ahead of Tripura Assembly polls"

Both are pretty cynical defections.

CPM MLA Moboshar Ali, who is a Muslim, won in 2018 in a 3-way race between INC CPM and BJP in the heavy Muslim and old INC stronghold Kailashahar. As part of the Left Front-INC alliance CPM gave this seat to INC.  In response, CPM MLA  Moboshar Ali now defects to BJP and will most likely run for BJP.

INC leader Billal Mia ran for INC in also Muslim heavy Boxanagar in both 2013 and 2018, losing to CPM in 2013 and losing to a Muslim BJP candidate in 2018 where he won a somewhat credible 5.5% of the vote while in the rest of Tripura INC mostly won 1%-2% of the vote.  Clearly, he was hoping to run this time for INC with Left Front support.  But the Left Front-INC alliance gave this seat to CPM so now he rebels and join BJP and I guess will try to get the BJP nomination as opposed to the incumbent BJP MLA (who is a Muslim.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #71 on: January 27, 2023, 05:11:31 AM »


Modi didn’t have to mastermind anything. He incited them, he ensured police wouldn’t stop them, and the local courts and police under his party’s control prevented the prosecution of the perpetrators. That’s complicity
That’s crimes against the human race

Full disclosure I haven’t seen the BBC doc, but I’ve been waiting so damn long for anyone to give a damn that India is run by a mass murdering crypto-fascist that I’m willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

The pattern of law enforcement in India, especially in the North and West, is that the caste/community identity of the police officer relative to the caste/community identity of the perpetrator and victim plays a large role.  Modi did not invent that and has limited abilities to override.  Just because the police during the 2002 Gujarat riots were ineffective and in many cases just watched as the riots go on does not mean they were ordered to do so by Modi.  The mostly all-Hindu police in Gujarat clearly had a default behavior pattern and that is what played out.  In theory, Modi could have, with massive political cost, could have done more to stop the riots but I think that was most likely above and beyond what he was, in reality, capable of.

The 2002 Gujarat riots are by no means unprecedented in India.  Even in Gujarat, the 1969 riots were clearly worse.    In 1969 Gujarat had an INC(O) CM and all in all were political opponents of the Hindu nationalists that took part in the riots.  Just like in 2002, the Gujarat police were ineffective in stopping the riots.  Just like in 2002, the role of the police was questioned after the fact and most post-riot investigations just less to "he said, she said" type reports where everyone had an excuse why the failure to stop the riots was not their fault.

In fact, in the aftermath of the 1969 riots the Hindu and Muslum populations started to live in different neighborhoods which actually indirectly help reduce the level of violence in 2002 since a lot of the 2002 riots took place in mixed neighborhoods in which there were a lot less of in 2002 when compared to 1969.
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jaichind
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« Reply #72 on: January 27, 2023, 05:48:34 AM »

Other info from India Today C-Voter Mood the Nation poll

Who should be Modi's successor in the BJP
Amit Shah          26
Yogi Adityanath   25
Nitin Gadkari       16

After 2024 and around 2026-2027 when I think Modi will retire, it will be fun to see who wins the Amit Shah-Yogi Adiyanath battle.  Who Modi favors will play a massive role.

For LS elections the tidbits that came out are

1) Bihar, UPA 25 out of 40 seats with 47% of the vote -> RJD-JD(U)-INC-Left alliance gets the upper hand over BJP
2) Maharastra, UPA 34 out of 48 seats with 48% of the vote -> SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance defeats BJP-BSHS
3) Karnataka, UPA 17 out of 28 seats with 43% of the vote -> INC defeats BJP
4) Assam, NDA  12 out of 14 seats -> Hindu consolidation gives a near sweep for BJP with Muslim vote split between INC and AIUDF
5) Telangana, BJP 6 out of 14 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019
6) WB BJP 20 out of 42 seats -> BJP gains 2 seats from 2019 when many expect a BJP implosion
7) UP NDA 70 out of 80  -> NDA gains 6 seats from 2019 due to the split of SP and BSP
8 ) AP -> TDP 10 out of 25 seats, which means YSRCP wins 15

This list seems pretty close to CW.  The odd one out is WB which, given organizational decay, one would expect BJP to lose seats from its massive 2019 performance.  This poll has BJP gaining 2 seats which is massive.
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jaichind
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« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2023, 06:38:57 AM »

I wonder if this chart has anything to do with BBC's recent concern about Muslims in India.
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jaichind
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« Reply #74 on: January 27, 2023, 08:58:25 AM »

https://www.opindia.com/2023/01/kamal-hasaans-party-makkal-needhi-maiam-to-merge-with-congress-to-fight-hindutva/

"After meeting Rahul Gandhi, Kamal Hasaan’s party ‘Makkal Needhi Maiam kills Makkal Needhi Maiam’, to merge with Congress to ‘fight Hindutva’"

TN's Left-Liberal MNM led by actor Kamal Hassan will merge into INC.
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