India 2023 assembly elections
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Author Topic: India 2023 assembly elections  (Read 35954 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #25 on: January 09, 2023, 09:18:28 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sharad-pawar-pitches-alliance-with-uddhav-thackeray-congress-for-elections-3673790

"Sharad Pawar Pitches Alliance With Uddhav Thackeray, Congress For Elections"

NCP leader Sharad Pawar calls for a 2024 grand alliance of NCP, INC and SHS(U) for both LS and assembly elections.  I would imagine the seats will be split 3 ways evenly with INC getting a bit more for LS elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: January 11, 2023, 05:28:44 AM »

Likely 2024 LS NDA and UPA alliance alignment



In Assam, I suspect INC and AIUDF will have a tactical alliance where AIUDF will not run in Upper Assam in return for INC running weak candidates in some Lower Assam seats.

In Maharashtra, the current guess is that it will be INC 18 NCP 15 SHS(U) 15 with BJP giving BSHS 12 to BJP's 36.  I read elsewhere that BJP was going to provide BSHS with 8 but that could create a situation where the SHS core vote would then view BSHS as the puppet of BJP and view SHS(U) as the "real" SHS.

I am skeptical that INC and SP+ can really form an alliance where INC accepts 10 seats and SP will give INC 10 seats.  Much more likely is a tactical alliance where INC and SP vacate seats where the other party is clearly stronger AND there is a real chance at beating BJP, most likely 4-8 seats on each side.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 11, 2023, 05:24:34 PM »

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/cpm-congress-have-agreed-on-tripura-pre-poll-pact-yechury/articleshow/96921773.cms

"CPM & Congress have agreed on Tripura pre-poll pact"

It seems that in Tripura Left Front and INC form an electoral alliance to take on BJP
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2023, 06:27:26 PM »

https://bestyweb.in/tripura-assembly-polls-tipra-proposes-alliance-with-bjps-ally-ipft-bestyweb/

"Tripura assembly polls: TIPRA proposes alliance with BJP’s ally IPFT – BestyWeb"

Another big development in Tripura.  BJP tribal ally IPFT seems headed for an alliance with TIPRA.  IPFT found and patriarch N. C. Debbarma passed away the new year at age 84 which blew up any confidence within IPFT in its ability to take on TIPRA in tribal seats.  So they seem to go with "if you cannot beat them, join them."

So things are developing in Tripura where it will be Left Front-INC vs BJP in Bengali seats while it will be TIPFA-IPFT vs BJP in tribal seats.   It seems we are headed toward a hung assembly.
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jaichind
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« Reply #29 on: January 15, 2023, 06:31:07 AM »

Just to clarify terms.  Tripura BJP tribal ally (more likely former ally) IPFT is for Tripraland which means it is for carving out a tribal state called Tripraland out of Tripura.


TIPRA is for Greater Tripraland which is Tripraland in a confederation with a whole bunch of other new tribal states carved out of India Northeast and Bangladesh.


Both demands seem futile in my mind.  The core issue is that Bengalis (both Hindus and Muslims from WB and Bangladesh) are immigrating into areas of the India Northeast that were traditionally tribal areas due to vast differences in population density between Bengali populated areas and tribal populated areas.  Unless Tripraland or Greater Tripraland has the political power to stop immigration (which would only take place if they gain sovereign independence) none of their core issues will be solved as they will continue getting swamped by Bangali immigrants in the decades to come.

IPFT and TIPRA real demand should be "we need to build a wall and make WB/Bangladesh pay for it"
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Computer89
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« Reply #30 on: January 18, 2023, 04:01:40 AM »

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/jp-nadda-bjp-executive-assembly-polls-2023-8385601/

How likely is this in your mind
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: January 18, 2023, 05:18:11 AM »


Not very likely at all.  And depending on how BJP counts Meghalaya and Mizoram, impossible.  In Meghalaya, BJP is running separately from NPP and has zero chance of becoming the largest party.  What BJP most likely means here is that NPP wins re-election as the largest party and will be able to re-create a ruling coalition that includes BJP.  In Mizoram, BJP will run separately from MNF and win very little.  MNF has a good chance of winning reelection and will be pro-BJP in orientation

My assessments

Tripura - 1 in 3 chance of BJP getting a majority.  Somewhat better than even odds for the BJP being largest party
Meghalaya - As long as NPP winning counts, likely NPP government will most likely include BJP
Nagaland - Almost certain that NDPP-BJP wins re-election
Karnataka - 1 in 3 chance that BJP returns to power
Telangana - 1 in 4 chance BJP becomes the largest party.  BJP is not strong in rural areas
Mizoram - As long as MNF counts, likely MNF government will be pro-BJP but not include BJP
MP - 2 in 3 chance BJP wins re-election
Rajasthan - Almost certain that BJP flips the state
Chhattisgarh - 50/50 between BJP and INC

So BJP is likely to win in most of these states to sweep all of them the chances are very low.
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: January 18, 2023, 06:33:26 AM »

ECI schedule announced

Voting day
Tripura : 16th February.
Nagaland : 27th February.
Meghalaya : 27th February.

Counting : 2nd March.

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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: January 18, 2023, 06:41:00 AM »

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/punjab/manpreet-badal-quits-congress-to-join-bjp-in-delhi-this-afternoon-471520

"Manpreet Badal quits Congress, joins BJP"

Manpreet Badal is a member of the Badal clan which de facto controls SAD. 
Manpreet Badal left SAD in 2010 in a family spat.  He formed PPP in 2011 and ran in the 2011 Punjab assembly elections and took enough anti-SAD votes to allow SAD-BJP to win re-election.   In 2016 he merged PPP into INC.  Now he leaves INC to join BJP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: January 18, 2023, 05:39:22 PM »

https://www.deccanherald.com/national/india-emerged-protector-of-worlds-future-under-pm-modi-bjp-resolution-1182438.html

"India emerged protector of world's future under PM Modi: BJP resolution"

BJP passes a resolution calling Modi the "supreme and the most popular leader of not only the country but also of the world"

While this is an exaggeration India has emerged as the great global balancer between the collective West and the PRC-Russia blocs.  In that sense, Modi's India now has much greater power and influence in the world than a decade ago.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: January 19, 2023, 06:39:56 AM »

Still no date for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election which was supposed to be in March 2023 but now looks like that date will be blown too.  In theory, this is about ward delimitation but in reality, it must be BJP-BSHS working around the clock to try to set up the election structure in their favor against a likely SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance.

In other words this
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jaichind
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« Reply #36 on: January 19, 2023, 01:20:02 PM »

One big unknown in the Nagaland assembly elections is if ENPOO will contest or if will they call for a boycott of the assembly elections.

https://www.eastmojo.com/nagaland/2023/01/17/positive-discussion-with-enpo-on-separate-state-demand-nagaland-cm/

"Positive discussion with ENPO on separate state demand: Nagaland CM "

EPNO is the main party that is pushing for the creation of the state of Frontier Nagaland


Easter Nagaland or Frontier Nagaland was on paper in British India but was never directly administered by the British Raj.  It was more of a buffer zone between British India and Burma and then after the British took over Burma just left there was no man's land.  Because of this Eastern Nagaland was always less developed than the rest of Nagaland.  Now there is a push to create Frontier Nagaland to ensure resources go to developing that area.

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jaichind
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« Reply #37 on: January 20, 2023, 03:56:24 AM »

SAS Karnataka poll has INC in the lead and getting a small but significant swing from BJP relative to 2018

INC      40%
BJP      34%
JD(S)   17%

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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: January 20, 2023, 04:43:57 AM »

It seems as Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra is coming to an end he has decided to copy the Modi Hindu sādhu look.  It will be monk vs monk.



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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: January 20, 2023, 05:31:55 AM »

The whole COVID-19 lockdown remote learning was a disaster anywhere it was tried.  This seems especially true for India.  In 2021 there were already many in the Indian education establishment ringing the alarm bells on how badly remote learning was going.  Now data comes out that quantifies this.   TN's result seems especially disastrous given its income levels relative to other Indian states in the North.  Tribal-heavy Chhattisgarh and Odisha never took remote learning that seriously as a policy and seems to have much better results.
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: January 20, 2023, 01:48:54 PM »

In Meghalaya historically it has been INC vs some local tribal-based opposition party.   In 1998 these tribal-based opposition parties merged to form UDP to take on INC with a coalition of other non-INC parties and won.  Then in 1999 INC split with P. A. Sangma taking his faction to become the Meghalaya
 branch of NCP.  2003 and 2008 became a 3-way battle between INC vs NCP vs UDP with UDP being marginalized.   In 2003 NCP split with P. A. Sangma taking his faction out of NCP to form NPP which made the UDP the main, but much smaller, rival to INC while NCP and NPP votes were split.  2018 saw the NPP surge forward to become the main rival to the INC pushing aside the UDP and NCP and forming the government with the help of the BJP and UDP.  For 2023 INC imploded with many key leaders joining AITC.  In 2023 I suspect it will be NPP vs UDP with INC AITC and BJP fighting for third place.
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jaichind
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« Reply #41 on: January 21, 2023, 06:49:46 AM »

Alliance situation so far in the NE state assembly elections.

Tripura
a) Left Front and INC will be in an alliance - seat talks in progress
b) It seems more and more likely BJP ally IPFT will leave NDA and join TIPRA in an alliance

Meghalaya - no alliance - every party for itself.  INC which used to be the largest party in Meghalaya for many election cycles this time around seems to be struggling to come up with a full slate of candidates

Nagaland
a) NDPP-BJP alliance is on.  Seats split 40/20 just like in 2018
b) INC trying to get a grand alliance of NPF INC JD(U) and CPI.  Most likely NPF is not a taker since NPF want the option of allying with BJP or NDPP to join the government after the election.
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: January 22, 2023, 07:22:20 AM »

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-blocks-bbc-documentary-pm-modi-airing-india-2023-01-22/

"India blocks BBC documentary on Modi from airing in India"

More conflict between BJP and woke Western Left Media.  This time over a BBC attack documentary on Modi and the 2002 Gujarat riots (again.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #43 on: January 22, 2023, 07:37:37 AM »

Any tweets on BBC documentary on Modi and the 2002 Gujarat riots will also be blocked in India.
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2023, 01:02:30 PM »

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/other-states/prakash-ambedkar-says-vanchit-bahujan-aghadi-never-opposed-allying-with-congress-ncp/article66420334.ece

"Prakash Ambedkar says Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi never opposed allying with Congress, NCP"

It seems SHS(U) and Dalit VBA will form an alliance for the upcoming municipal elections in Maharastra.  This de facto adds VBA to the SHS(U)-INC-NCP alliance.  INC will most likely be the most unformidable with this since INC and VBA compete for the same urban Dalit vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: January 23, 2023, 06:02:03 AM »

MP Municipal elections.  BJP wins 11 councils vs 8 for INC.  On the whole, this is a pretty good result for INC.  BJP is the ruling party in the state and the ruling party tends to outperform in these elections.  BJP is also stronger in urban areas so for INC to fight BJP to 11-8 bodes well for INC in the upcoming assembly elections in late 2023.
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jaichind
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« Reply #46 on: January 23, 2023, 06:29:48 AM »

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/ahead-of-tripura-polls-bjp-ally-holds-merger-talks-with-royal-scions-party-3714222

"Ahead Of Tripura Polls, BJP Ally Holds Merger Talks With Royal Scion's Party"

In Tripura, it seems what is in the cards is IPFT might merge into TIPRA which in turn will offer to have a pre or post-election alliance with either the BJP or Left Front-INC depending on which side is willing to sign up for the creation of Tripraland state.

https://theprint.in/politics/poll-alliance-bjp-in-a-fix-as-tipra-motha-insists-on-written-assurance-of-greater-tipraland/1329172/

"Poll alliance: BJP in a fix as TIPRA Motha insists on written assurance of Greater Tipraland"

There have been talks between BJP and TIPRA but TIPRA insists that there has to be written assurance of Greater Tripraland if there is going to be any cooperation between BJP and TIPRA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #47 on: January 23, 2023, 01:19:35 PM »

More detailed MP Municipal elections results

Council largest party
BJP          11
INC           8

Number of council members elected
BJP          183
INC          143
Others       17
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jaichind
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« Reply #48 on: January 25, 2023, 12:41:23 PM »
« Edited: January 25, 2023, 12:47:02 PM by jaichind »

Tripura Left Front-INC alliance details out

Left Front (47) (CPM 43, CPI 1, RSP 1, AIFB 1, Ind. 1) and INC(13)

The quality of the 13 INC seats is not good. 3 are tribal seats where INC will be a poor 3rd.  Of the other 10 I figure around 4 are winnable for INC unless it is a large anti-BJP wave.   Most likely INC emerges with around 2-3 MLAs.

The left Front candidate list is already out.  Some churn on 2018 winners and a lot of CPM candidates are the same ones that lost in 2018.  CPM list seems to be a more status quo list and counting on alliance with INC and anti-incumbency to get it across the finishing line.
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jaichind
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« Reply #49 on: January 25, 2023, 03:07:12 PM »

With Left Front-INC seat-sharing deal done without TIPRA opens the door to a possible BJP-TIPRA alliance.  Of course, now TIPRA is demanding that BJP comes up with a draft for the creation of Greater Tripraland within 24 hours or else no deal.  TIPRA's leverage is higher since now it seems likely old BJP tribal ally IPFT will most likely merge into TIPRA.

https://www.eastmojo.com/tripura/2023/01/25/tripura-2023-tipra-gives-24-hour-ultimatum-to-mha-over-tipraland/


"Tripura 2023: TIPRA gives ’24-hour ultimatum’ to MHA over Tipraland"
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