MI PPP: Biden +7

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1601801198184853505

[SnowLabrador]

Right in line with about Biden +2 in Michigan, which is my prior. I know polls did okay in 2022, but that was without Donnie on the ballot.

[Sir Mohamed]

Right in line with about Biden +2 in Michigan, which is my prior. I know polls did okay in 2022, but that was without Donnie on the ballot.

The latest polls in the MI-Gov race this year actually underestimated Whitmer.

After the most recent weeks, I'm not that sure Trump is gonna pull that stunt a third time with greatly overperforming polls. More seems like people are tired of him, even some GOPers.

[DaleCooper]

I think Trump over-performing polls is going to depend on whether or not he is speaking to controversial issues that much of the country quietly agrees with him on. So things like political correctness, illegal immigration, outsourcing to China, rioting, etc.

If Trump is going to run a campaign about how mean the Twitter moderation team was to him then I don't think he is going to over-perform.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What I don't get is how Selzer manages to be so accurate even when Trump is on the ballot.
How can they find all these hidden deplorables everyone else misses? What's the secret sauce?

[Hope For A New Era]

Right in line with about Biden +2 in Michigan, which is my prior. I know polls did okay in 2022, but that was without Donnie on the ballot.

The latest polls in the MI-Gov race this year actually underestimated Whitmer.

After the most recent weeks, I'm not that sure Trump is gonna pull that stunt a third time with greatly overperforming polls. More seems like people are tired of him, even some GOPers.

I think a big part of the D overperformance was pollsters overcorrecting for 2020. After this year they're probably going to overcorrect in the opposite direction now.

Regardless, Biden at 50% is good.

What I don't get is how Selzer manages to be so accurate even when Trump is on the ballot.
How can they find all these hidden deplorables everyone else misses? What's the secret sauce?

The secret sauce is being Ann Selzer, Queen of Polls

[Spectator]

Right in line with about Biden +2 in Michigan, which is my prior. I know polls did okay in 2022, but that was without Donnie on the ballot.

The latest polls in the MI-Gov race this year actually underestimated Whitmer.

After the most recent weeks, I'm not that sure Trump is gonna pull that stunt a third time with greatly overperforming polls. More seems like people are tired of him, even some GOPers.

I think a big part of the D overperformance was pollsters overcorrecting for 2020. After this year they're probably going to overcorrect in the opposite direction now.

Regardless, Biden at 50% is good.

What I don't get is how Selzer manages to be so accurate even when Trump is on the ballot.
How can they find all these hidden deplorables everyone else misses? What's the secret sauce?

The secret sauce is being Ann Selzer, Queen of Polls

No need to correct for this year since polls were generally accurate.

[DaleCooper]

Right in line with about Biden +2 in Michigan, which is my prior. I know polls did okay in 2022, but that was without Donnie on the ballot.

The latest polls in the MI-Gov race this year actually underestimated Whitmer.

After the most recent weeks, I'm not that sure Trump is gonna pull that stunt a third time with greatly overperforming polls. More seems like people are tired of him, even some GOPers.

I think a big part of the D overperformance was pollsters overcorrecting for 2020. After this year they're probably going to overcorrect in the opposite direction now.

Regardless, Biden at 50% is good.

What I don't get is how Selzer manages to be so accurate even when Trump is on the ballot.
How can they find all these hidden deplorables everyone else misses? What's the secret sauce?

The secret sauce is being Ann Selzer, Queen of Polls

No need to correct for this year since polls were generally accurate.

I don't think it's a matter of correction, I think the issue is that there is a market for polls that tell people what they want to hear and I think it correlates with which side is riding high at the time. 2022 felt like a low point for Democrats so I doubt many people wanted to see polls that overestimated Democrats when they expected defeat . The surprising results in 22 may have given people more of an appetite for polls that paint Democrats in a more positive light. I also think the rightwing fake polls will reign it in a bit after the humiliation this year.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan +7:

NE-02 +6
NH, PA +5
NV, WI +4
AZ +3
GA +1
IA, NC, OH tie
TX -3

'Nuff said.