GOP's problem in smaller metro areas
Vosem:
I think some of these tend to be highly educated on account of what their main industries -- true of Grand Rapids and I think increasingly Reno. "Highly educated second-fiddle metro areas" used to be, like, the base of the Republican Party as recently as 15-20 years ago, so there's a lot of room to fall there.
Otherwise, Green Bay is pretty clearly trending right over time, and I'm not sure 2022 was a particularly weird result there. Pittsburgh swung left senatorially in 2022 but that seems like something of a favorite son effect in an unusually regionalized race? More generally, Pittsburgh is to some degree trending left but I don't think it's a "smaller metro area" that can be grouped with the rest of these; it's significantly larger and just kind of counts as a city by any metric you want to choose.
Nyvin:
Quote from: Annatar on December 09, 2022, 08:48:41 AM
Quote from: Roll Roons on December 09, 2022, 08:01:07 AM
Quote from: bagelman on December 09, 2022, 05:52:03 AM
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Evers and Barnes both made huge gains there this year.
Johnson outperformed Trump in the Green Bay metro area and even Michels managed to run ahead of Romney's numbers there. There are a lot of small metro areas where Trump in 2020 ran significantly ahead of Romney in 2012, in most of those areas Republicans did even better in 2022, obviously they did better nationally, winning the house vote by around 2.3% by estimate adjusting for uncounted seats vs Trump losing by 4.5% so its not surprising they did better in those areas.
Also, Trump even in 2020 outperformed Romney in the Pittsburgh metro area overall, so from 2012-20 the Pittsburgh metro area shifted Republican.
I know the Pittsburgh metro isn't exactly coterminous with Allegheny county, but Romney didn't outperform Trump 2020 in the county. Unless you mean in total raw votes?
Romney -
Allegheny 56.69% D - 42.12% R
Trump 2020 -
Allegheny 59.61% D - 39.23% R
Schiff for Senate:
Quote from: Nyvin on December 09, 2022, 07:18:03 PM
Quote from: Annatar on December 09, 2022, 08:48:41 AM
Quote from: Roll Roons on December 09, 2022, 08:01:07 AM
Quote from: bagelman on December 09, 2022, 05:52:03 AM
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Evers and Barnes both made huge gains there this year.
Johnson outperformed Trump in the Green Bay metro area and even Michels managed to run ahead of Romney's numbers there. There are a lot of small metro areas where Trump in 2020 ran significantly ahead of Romney in 2012, in most of those areas Republicans did even better in 2022, obviously they did better nationally, winning the house vote by around 2.3% by estimate adjusting for uncounted seats vs Trump losing by 4.5% so its not surprising they did better in those areas.
Also, Trump even in 2020 outperformed Romney in the Pittsburgh metro area overall, so from 2012-20 the Pittsburgh metro area shifted Republican.
I know the Pittsburgh metro isn't exactly coterminous with Allegheny county, but Romney didn't outperform Trump 2020 in the county. Unless you mean in total raw votes?
Romney -
Allegheny 56.69% D - 42.12% R
Trump 2020 -
Allegheny 59.61% D - 39.23% R
It’s because the counties directly around Allegheny - technically considered Pittsburgh’s suburbs - are quite Appalachian in character. So formerly ancestral D (just look at the 1984 presidential map and you’ll see it), now quite Republican, and of course moved to the right in the Trump Era. Even as late as 2018, popular downballot Democrats such as Tom Wolf and Bon Casey vastly outperformed Hillary Clinton’s performance (of course, they did so across the state, but Southwest PA, even compared to the state as a whole, had a large leftward swing between 2016-PRES and 2018-SEN/GOV). Take, for instance, Washington County, just south of Allegheny and part of the Pittsburgh metro officially. It was Romney+13.6 in 2012; is Trump+22.7 now. Despite Trump’s 25-point win in the county in 2016, Republican Scott Wagner won it by under a point in the 2018 gubernatorial race. Or consider the stronger example of Greene County, also officially part of Greater Pittsburgh, which Wagner won by a point and a half, and Barletta won by 2: it was Romney+8.3 in 2012 and Trump+30.8 in 2016 (it swung more to the right in 2020, going up to Trump+33.4). These swings add up - Allegheny may have 1.25 million people, but Greene has 130,000, and Washington has over 200,000.
Annatar:
Quote from: Nyvin on December 09, 2022, 07:18:03 PM
Quote from: Annatar on December 09, 2022, 08:48:41 AM
Quote from: Roll Roons on December 09, 2022, 08:01:07 AM
Quote from: bagelman on December 09, 2022, 05:52:03 AM
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Evers and Barnes both made huge gains there this year.
Johnson outperformed Trump in the Green Bay metro area and even Michels managed to run ahead of Romney's numbers there. There are a lot of small metro areas where Trump in 2020 ran significantly ahead of Romney in 2012, in most of those areas Republicans did even better in 2022, obviously they did better nationally, winning the house vote by around 2.3% by estimate adjusting for uncounted seats vs Trump losing by 4.5% so its not surprising they did better in those areas.
Also, Trump even in 2020 outperformed Romney in the Pittsburgh metro area overall, so from 2012-20 the Pittsburgh metro area shifted Republican.
I know the Pittsburgh metro isn't exactly coterminous with Allegheny county, but Romney didn't outperform Trump 2020 in the county. Unless you mean in total raw votes?
Romney -
Allegheny 56.69% D - 42.12% R
Trump 2020 -
Allegheny 59.61% D - 39.23% R
By the Pittsburgh metro area I use the Census definition of the counties included in it, if you just look at Allegheny, its true Trump didn't do better than Romney.
President Punxsutawney Phil:
Quote from: Annatar on December 10, 2022, 05:09:53 AM
Quote from: Nyvin on December 09, 2022, 07:18:03 PM
Quote from: Annatar on December 09, 2022, 08:48:41 AM
Quote from: Roll Roons on December 09, 2022, 08:01:07 AM
Quote from: bagelman on December 09, 2022, 05:52:03 AM
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Evers and Barnes both made huge gains there this year.
Johnson outperformed Trump in the Green Bay metro area and even Michels managed to run ahead of Romney's numbers there. There are a lot of small metro areas where Trump in 2020 ran significantly ahead of Romney in 2012, in most of those areas Republicans did even better in 2022, obviously they did better nationally, winning the house vote by around 2.3% by estimate adjusting for uncounted seats vs Trump losing by 4.5% so its not surprising they did better in those areas.
Also, Trump even in 2020 outperformed Romney in the Pittsburgh metro area overall, so from 2012-20 the Pittsburgh metro area shifted Republican.
I know the Pittsburgh metro isn't exactly coterminous with Allegheny county, but Romney didn't outperform Trump 2020 in the county. Unless you mean in total raw votes?
Romney -
Allegheny 56.69% D - 42.12% R
Trump 2020 -
Allegheny 59.61% D - 39.23% R
By the Pittsburgh metro area I use the Census definition of the counties included in it, if you just look at Allegheny, its true Trump didn't do better than Romney.
Trump certainly made big gains in places like Washington and Westmoreland Counties from past GOP nominees.
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