GOP's problem in smaller metro areas
Roll Roons:
One thing that's underdiscussed is the collapse of Republican strength in a lot of smaller/"second fiddle" metro areas. I mean places like Grand Rapids, Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Reno. Obviously, this hurts GOP prospects in statewide races, including president.
These metro areas have traditionally been far less Democratic than the larger ones in their respective states, but that's changing. What can they do to stop the bleeding in places like these?
ottermax:
I'm not sure it is much of a collapse as much as a bit of a geographic depolarization happening. On the flip side there are large metros seeing significant gains for the GOP in the past two cycles such as South Florida, NYC, and Los Angeles which are not that helpful for the GOP electorally in the short-term.
bagelman:
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Roll Roons:
Quote from: bagelman on December 09, 2022, 05:52:03 AM
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Evers and Barnes both made huge gains there this year.
Annatar:
Quote from: Roll Roons on December 09, 2022, 08:01:07 AM
Quote from: bagelman on December 09, 2022, 05:52:03 AM
How is the Green Bay metro moving left? Brown WI was R+2 in 2012 rounded up and R+7 in 2020 rounded down.
Evers and Barnes both made huge gains there this year.
Johnson outperformed Trump in the Green Bay metro area and even Michels managed to run ahead of Romney's numbers there. There are a lot of small metro areas where Trump in 2020 ran significantly ahead of Romney in 2012, in most of those areas Republicans did even better in 2022, obviously they did better nationally, winning the house vote by around 2.3% by estimate adjusting for uncounted seats vs Trump losing by 4.5% so its not surprising they did better in those areas.
Also, Trump even in 2020 outperformed Romney in the Pittsburgh metro area overall, so from 2012-20 the Pittsburgh metro area shifted Republican.
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