I think we’re discounting the possibility of a successful slave revolt, the population ratios were so skewed
i recall listening to a podacst about the civil war saying the pop ratio between free and enslaved in the south in 1860 was like 1:6 and that was only expanding due to birth rates
i think that's unsustainable at some point and given the enslaveds access to farm equipment/backwoods weapons i think a riseup occurs, but perhaps you can say the southern states would always have superior firepower, my bad this latter point is purely conjecture on my part
