How long could slavery in the South have persisted without the war or a different outcome?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think we’re discounting the possibility of a successful slave revolt, the population ratios were so skewed

How so?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

i recall listening to a podacst about the civil war saying the pop ratio between free and enslaved in the south in 1860 was like 1:6 and that was only expanding due to birth rates

...The South was not 85% slave. More like 30%, with a few states (MS, SC, LA) breaking 50% but others like Arkansas and Tennessee being pretty low.

Say the 11 states of the Confederacy were, say, 55% slave or 60% slave in 1860, overall. How much would that have changed?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

i recall listening to a podacst about the civil war saying the pop ratio between free and enslaved in the south in 1860 was like 1:6 and that was only expanding due to birth rates

...The South was not 85% slave. More like 30%, with a few states (MS, SC, LA) breaking 50% but others like Arkansas and Tennessee being pretty low.

Say the 11 states of the Confederacy were, say, 55% slave or 60% slave in 1860, overall. How much would that have changed?

I guess it'd be easier to imagine a Reconstruction black government holding in, say, a 65-70% black South Carolina or Mississippi? The states lower on the scale would still have much the same result.

I was thinking that the more blacks there are, there might be massive side-effects down the line societally. A south far blacker would have massive consequences.