How long could slavery in the South have persisted without the war or a different outcome?

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President Johnson:
If either the Civil War ended in a peace treaty that recognizes the CSA as sovereign state or if Lincoln and Republicans never really moved to abolish slavery after the war. If not outlawed in 1865, how long do you think slavery would have persisted in the South? Into the 20th century? It's actually crazy to think about slavery being around for several more decades.

I think it could have lasted into the progressive era from ca. 1900 to 1920. So similar to when child labor was officially banned in the US.

Samof94:
Quote from: President Johnson on December 06, 2022, 02:51:22 PM

If either the Civil War ended in a peace treaty that recognizes the CSA as sovereign state or if Lincoln and Republicans never really moved to abolish slavery after the war. If not outlawed in 1865, how long do you think slavery would have persisted in the South? Into the 20th century? It's actually crazy to think about slavery being around for several more decades.

I think it could have lasted into the progressive era from ca. 1900 to 1920. So similar to when child labor was officially banned in the US.


Until there's another war and they get invaded by someone else. Or they just rename slavery something else. They saw slavery as a core belief sanctioned by God.

Cassius:
Presumably until the full scale mechanisation of agriculture (thus rendering slavery economically uncompetitive).

Skill and Chance:
Quote from: Cassius on December 23, 2022, 09:15:46 AM

Presumably until the full scale mechanisation of agriculture (thus rendering slavery economically uncompetitive).



You could make a case that happened anytime between 1890 and 1950 depending on the metric.  If an independent Confederacy got involved in WWI, I think the abolition of slavery would be a condition either of military aid from the victorious coalition or of the peace treaty ending the war if they lose, considering every other major player in WWI opposed it.  So, I'm going with the 1910's. 

I’m not Stu:
Wouldn't slavery have eventually become economically unfeasible at some point? What about likely boycotts and maybe embargoes?

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