GA: Trafalgar Group: Sen. Warnock (D) +4
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  GA: Trafalgar Group: Sen. Warnock (D) +4
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Author Topic: GA: Trafalgar Group: Sen. Warnock (D) +4  (Read 844 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 06, 2022, 12:29:46 AM »

New Poll: Georgia Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2022-12-05

Summary: D: 51%, R: 47%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2022, 12:30:33 AM »

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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2022, 12:36:08 AM »

Have to assume they think this is the margin Warnock will win by, so they manufacture this poll in an attempt to salvage their reputation.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2022, 12:36:16 AM »

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2022, 12:54:25 AM »

Any poll aggregator that does not permanently ban this fraudulent polling firm will be completely discredited.
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Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2022, 12:57:51 AM »

The recently discredited firm that doesn't make up numbers just happens to have (likely) their largest ever D margin in a swing state?

And they say polling issues can't be solved!
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UncleSam
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2022, 01:03:20 AM »

They probably adjusted their methodology after their horrendous results in November.
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2022, 01:03:37 AM »

As a great man once said, bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad LOL bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad bad
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2022, 02:38:23 AM »

Oof!

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2022, 07:44:39 AM »

It's not that they abandoned their philosophy, they are coordinating with Data4Progress and since D4P has WARNOCK up he is gonna win
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Brittain33
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2022, 09:23:50 AM »

I wonder if RCP puts this in their average
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2022, 09:26:14 AM »

L M A O

all these junk pollsters coming out of the woodwork to herd and try and salvage their 538 pollster ratings / reputation. i just-
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #12 on: December 06, 2022, 10:03:02 AM »

So if Trashfalgar has Warnock up by 4 pts, Walker is done?

My prediction is 51/49, though a margin twice as much wouldn't surprise me as things are going.
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Person Man
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« Reply #13 on: December 06, 2022, 10:05:21 AM »


I knew it.
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Person Man
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« Reply #14 on: December 06, 2022, 10:06:41 AM »

Oof!



Sick burn
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: December 06, 2022, 10:07:27 AM »

Look, fellas, we may have missed a lot in November, but that’s ancient history! Our most recent poll was spot on, surely that counts for… hey, wait, where are you all going?
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Zache
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« Reply #16 on: December 06, 2022, 10:14:39 AM »

Cowards. If you're going down at least go down fighting.

Post that Walker + 1.5 like you know you wanted to.
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« Reply #17 on: December 06, 2022, 10:19:22 AM »

Oof!



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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: December 06, 2022, 10:36:04 AM »
« Edited: December 06, 2022, 11:15:07 AM by wbrocks67 »

Look, fellas, we may have missed a lot in November, but that’s ancient history! Our most recent poll was spot on, surely that counts for… hey, wait, where are you all going?

The best is that they didn't even release it via social. They just quietly put it on their website. No tweets from Cahaly or the main account.
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« Reply #19 on: December 06, 2022, 10:38:18 AM »

Oof!



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👁️👁️
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« Reply #20 on: December 06, 2022, 11:53:20 AM »

Have to assume they think this is the margin Warnock will win by, so they manufacture this poll in an attempt to salvage their reputation.

Yeah, either they changed their methodology (once again with no explanation) or they are just making numbers up herded in line with the other polls so that they can pretend in the future to be an accurate/reasonable pollster.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: December 06, 2022, 01:56:09 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2022, 02:11:05 PM by wbrocks67 »

Have to assume they think this is the margin Warnock will win by, so they manufacture this poll in an attempt to salvage their reputation.

Yeah, either they changed their methodology (once again with no explanation) or they are just making numbers up herded in line with the other polls so that they can pretend in the future to be an accurate/reasonable pollster.

Definitely the latter. Exactly why IA, Traf, Landmark, Mitchell, etc. (all pollsters who flopped big time this cycle) suddenly waited for everyone else to poll and then came out with theirs last minute.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: December 06, 2022, 01:56:49 PM »

Robert Cahaly: Please don't take away our rating, Mr. Silver.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2022, 02:18:57 PM »

Thank you, Frozen Pizza Man, very cool!

Indeed, it looks like Warnock is on track for a 52-48% or even 53-47% win. I think it will be closer, though the latest round of polling was encouraging here.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #24 on: December 06, 2022, 02:46:22 PM »

It will be an incredibly fitting end to this cycle (and Trafalgar's/other pollsters' record as well as much of CW) if Walker now actually wins this. Wrong both times, in both directions. It would really highlight how useless much of this business has become.
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