EMERSON POLL Biden +4 vs both Trump and DeSantis

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PollTrackerUSA/status/1596986265077166080

(Edited by mod)

The actual results appear to be (thanks to Impartial Spectator for digging this out):

Biden 45
Trump 41

Biden 43
DeSantis 39

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not much difference here between how Trump and DeSantis fare.

And this is *before* DeSantis has been subjected to all the attacks, criticism, and people digging through his past that happens in a national presidential campaign.

Whereas Trump and Biden both have already been through that process, and already have the negatives from that. So whereas there is not much room for Trump's or Biden's unfavorables to increase much further, here still is room for DeSantis to do worse after a gazillion dollars in attack ads etc get run against him.

[BlueSwan]

Not much difference here between how Trump and DeSantis fare.

And this is *before* DeSantis has been subjected to all the attacks, criticism, and people digging through his past that happens in a national presidential campaign.

Whereas Trump and Biden both have already been through that process, and already have the negatives from that. So whereas there is not much room for Trump's or Biden's unfavorables to increase much further, here still is room for DeSantis to do worse after a gazillion dollars in attack ads etc get run against him.

Not much difference? From +6 to -4 in a hyperpolarized political climate? I’d say that is a pretty huge difference.

[Hope For A New Era]

GA-GOV 2022 vibes

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Not much difference? From +6 to -4 in a hyperpolarized political climate? I’d say that is a pretty huge difference.

Oops, I misread it and thought the difference was Biden +6 compared to Biden +4, which would no have been much difference.

EDIT --- never mind again!! Although I did misread it originally, the tweet itself is actually a made up lie!!! (see my other posts further below)

Looking at the actual numbers, the difference of Biden +6 compared to Biden -4 is certainly more significant.

We should also note that apparently there are 0 undecideds for some reason (in both races) which is not realistic at this stage in the race and suggests that Emerson forced leaners to pick one or the other.

It seems like there are a good number of voters who said "not Trump" in the Biden-Trump matchup, but then when Trump was removed, they may have considered DeSantis as a more generic alternative to Biden, and so they went with "not Biden" and picked DeSantis. If the poll allowed for undecideds, probably a lo of those would have said "undecided," but when forced to pick, it seems like they say first of all "not Trump" and then "not Biden" as well.

That suggests (in line with Biden's approval ratings) that a lot of voters are not actually that happy with Biden, they just don't want Trump. That means it would be a mistake for Dems to give Biden the nomination without a contested primary, some other Dem may do better than Biden especially if Biden's approvals remain subpar.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Looks like the tweet that Olawaandi posted is also misleading/wrong.

Actual results from Emerson website are different:

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-bidens-approval-remains-underwater-as-majority-of-gop-voters-support-trump-as-republican-nominee-for-2024/

In a potential 2024 Presidential Election between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a four-point lead over Trump, 45% to 41%. Nine percent would support someone else and 6% are undecided. If Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were the 2024 nominee, he trails Biden by four, 39% to 43%; 11% would support someone else and 8% are undecided. In a match-up between President Biden and Representative Liz Cheney, Biden leads 37% to 19%, while 33% would vote for someone else, and 11% are undecided.

So real results, including undecideds, are

Biden 45
Trump 41

Biden 43
DeSantis 39

Which makes clear there is a lot more room for movement with the undecideds and people saying "someone else"

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Actual downloadable results from Emerson website:

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/ECP_National11.20.xls



The tweet is made up, basically they seem to have just excluded and not mentioned any undecided and someone else responses and changed the percentages in the poll to exclude them lol (in addition to falsely saying that DeSantis was ahead, when in reality the poll has him losing by a fairly similar amount to Trump).

Now the question is did the tweeter intentionally post the wrong numbers in order to pump up DeSantis, or was it some sort of strange accident (and if it was an accident, why did they remove the undecideds etc)?

[Person Man]

I ultimately don't think it will matter that much except DeSantis will probably perform better in the NPV because Dennis will get huge margins in some light right states. MI, PA are probably going to be uphill climb and AZ, NV, NC, WI, and GA there will be marginal differences in electability between Hump and Dennis.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I ultimately don't think it will matter that much except DeSantis will probably perform better in the NPV because Dennis will get huge margins in some light right states. MI, PA are probably going to be uphill climb and AZ, NV, NC, WI, and GA there will be marginal differences in electability between Hump and Dennis.

Biden is at 50/49 Rassy Approvals because oil is 40/barrel donuts PROBABLE we win some wave insurance in red states Brown, Beshear, and Cooper and Manchin all have Steller Approvals ratings

The Ds failed to win OH/NC/FL but we won KS GOV an R plus 20 State

[Sir Mohamed]

Too soon to read too much into that. However, if this is DeSantis' peak, right after his reelection and before all the scrutiny comes with a campaign, it's good news for Biden and Dems.

Just, as I said, I wouldn't read too much into that, there are other polls showing DeSantis slightly ahead. And with neither candidate above 45%, it's almost meaningless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Too soon to read too much into that. However, if this is DeSantis' peak, right after his reelection and before all the scrutiny comes with a campaign, it's good news for Biden and Dems.

Just, as I said, I wouldn't read too much into that, there are other polls showing DeSantis slightly ahead. And with neither candidate above 45%, it's almost meaningless.

Gas prices are 40/barrel and he won off of Little Havana Rubio coattails he along with Scott are vulnerable because in 2018 they barely won without Rubio just like Vance had a 37/51 Approval rating but won solely on DeWine 60/40 Approvals