Predict the 2024 senate elections

[windjammer]

Alright, as I think right now Biden is going to be reelected:
Republicans pick up WV (likely rep) and OH (toss up).
I think Tester survives (toss up too) and dems win all the other blue states.

So 51R-49D
What about you?

[Spectator]

We'll see how well this ages, but right now I think 51-49R. Republicans gain WV, MT, and OH and lose Texas.

[Xing]

53-47 R, Republicans flip MT/OH/WV, and one of AZ/NV.

[NewYorkExpress]

51 R-49 D.

Republicans flip West Virginia, Montana and Arizona, Democrats flip Texas.

[Suburbia]

If the Republicans pick up the Senate in 2024, does McConnell still remain Senate Republican Leader or does Thune or Cornyn take the job?

[NewYorkExpress]

If the Republicans pick up the Senate in 2024, does McConnell still remain Senate Republican Leader or does Thune or Cornyn take the job?

Depends on whether McConnell intends to run for reelection in 2026.

[Ferguson97]

Republicans win 2/3 of West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. 51R-49D.

[S019]

52-48 R, Republicans flip WV, OH, MT

[Zedonathin2020]

53–47, the GOP flips Ohio, Montana, West Virginia and just BARELY eeks out a victory in Wisconsin, but the later depends on how good the GOP nominee actually does in the state.

[Dani Rose]

I did exceptionally well with bold predictions this year, so I'll go ahead and do it again, why not: 51-49 D. GOP takes WV and nothing else, we gain TX. As a very specific side bet, I also wager the Democrats regain the House relatively easily, and after the election they finally stake the filibuster through the heart on account of Sinema being primaried and Manchin losing.

[TDAS04]

Republicans win 2/3 of West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. 51R-49D.

And Montana is the one Democrats hold.

[TML]

I did exceptionally well with bold predictions this year, so I'll go ahead and do it again, why not: 51-49 D. GOP takes WV and nothing else, we gain TX. As a very specific side bet, I also wager the Democrats regain the House relatively easily, and after the election they finally stake the filibuster through the heart on account of Sinema being primaried and Manchin losing.

While I agree with the notion that Democrats could hold the Senate after 2024 by virtue of people like Brown & Tester winning again (using the same campaigning strategies they've used in the past), I do question the notion of the filibuster being automatically eliminated with Manchin & Sinema out of the picture - are you sure that people like Carper, Coons, Menendez, Shaheen, Warner, etc. won't morph into what Manchin & Sinema are today? Additionally, Tester has indicated that while he currently supports carve-outs for the filibuster on issues like abortion rights, voting rights, etc., AFAIK he hasn't yet thrown his support behind its full abolition just yet.

[Dani Rose]

I did exceptionally well with bold predictions this year, so I'll go ahead and do it again, why not: 51-49 D. GOP takes WV and nothing else, we gain TX. As a very specific side bet, I also wager the Democrats regain the House relatively easily, and after the election they finally stake the filibuster through the heart on account of Sinema being primaried and Manchin losing.

While I agree with the notion that Democrats could hold the Senate after 2024 by virtue of people like Brown & Tester winning again (using the same campaigning strategies they've used in the past), I do question the notion of the filibuster being automatically eliminated with Manchin & Sinema out of the picture - are you sure that people like Carper, Coons, Menendez, Shaheen, Warner, etc. won't morph into what Manchin & Sinema are today? Additionally, Tester has indicated that while he currently supports carve-outs for the filibuster on issues like abortion rights, voting rights, etc., AFAIK he hasn't yet thrown his support behind its full abolition just yet.

I feel like getting the trifecta back will mobilize Democratic leadership to rally the troops around getting rid of their biggest obstacle to policymaking. Carper and Coons especially would be loyal to Biden, who obviously wants it out of the way; Shaheen and Warner are stalwart party loyalists; and Tester is actually pretty progressive underneath his Moderate Montanan(tm) electoral persona.

Naturally, I could be wrong, but it's sort of what I feel at this point in time.

[Pericles]

Montana, Ohio and West Virginia are pretty likely to flip with no counter flips, and one swing Senate seat ends up being unlucky for Democrats and flipping (maybe Arizona If Democrats have a primary and Sinema doesn't just retire), so 53 Republican Senators.

[John Dule]

Going bold. Rs win WV and MT but Dems hold Ohio.

[Hope For A New Era]

Ceiling for both parties is 52 (though Republicans are far more likely to hit that ceiling than Democrats), single most probable outcome is 51R-49D (R flip 2 of WV OH MT, or R flip all three and D flip TX).

Most likely D hold scenario, second most probable outcome overall, is losing WV, holding OH and MT, and not flipping TX. This is what the party should be strategizing for.

[Pericles]

Ceiling for both parties is 52 (though Republicans are far more likely to hit that ceiling than Democrats), single most probable outcome is 51R-49D (R flip 2 of WV OH MT, or R flip all three and D flip TX).

Most likely D hold scenario, second most probable outcome overall, is losing WV, holding OH and MT, and not flipping TX. This is what the party should be strategizing for.

I don't get this claim, Republicans have huge upside if they run strongly in the presidential race and their downside is if anything still improving on where they are now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Extremely bold take: 50-50, IF Biden is reelected. Only WV flips. Tester and Brown hold on, as does the D-candidate in AZ (presumably Gallego, Sinema is DOA in the primary).

[Mr.Phips]

The safe answer at this point is 52R-48D (Republicans win OH/MT/WV).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's too early way too early but we need Brown and Tester to win or an upset in FL or TX to get to 50 if Gallego is the nominee we don't need Sinema or Manchin

[Hope For A New Era]

Ceiling for both parties is 52 (though Republicans are far more likely to hit that ceiling than Democrats), single most probable outcome is 51R-49D (R flip 2 of WV OH MT, or R flip all three and D flip TX).

Most likely D hold scenario, second most probable outcome overall, is losing WV, holding OH and MT, and not flipping TX. This is what the party should be strategizing for.

*Ceiling if Biden is reelected. Sorry, should have clarified.

If Biden isn't reelected, then there will be an apocalyptic Republican majority with Democrats locked out for a decade or more, but that was a given.
I don't get this claim, Republicans have huge upside if they run strongly in the presidential race and their downside is if anything still improving on where they are now.

[ShadowRocket]

51R - 49D. The Republicans win 2/3 out of WV, OH, and MT.

I do think there is a chance for another 50-50 split if a strong Dem candidate runs in TX.

[MT Treasurer]

Easy/obvious:

WV - AL-SEN 2020 redux with Justice (R Gain), ND-SEN 2012 redux with Mooney (D Hold)
OH - VA-SEN 2000 redux (R Gain)
MT - ME-SEN 2020/MT-SEN 2012/MT-SEN 2018/MT-SEN 1996 redux (D Hold)
NV - NV-PRES 2016/NV-SEN 2016/NV-SEN 2018/NV-PRES 2020/NV-SEN 2022 redux (D Hold)
MI - FL-SEN 2018 redux (R Gain)
PA - WV-SEN 2012 refux (D Hold)
WI - WI-SEN 2012 redux (D Hold)
TX - FL-SEN 2018 redux (D Gain)
FL - TX-SEN 2012 redux (R Hold)

Did I do this right?

[DaleCooper]

Rs win West Virginia and Ohio, Democrats win Montana.

[Mr.Phips]

Easy/obvious:

WV - AL-SEN 2020 redux with Justice (R Gain), ND-SEN 2012 redux with Mooney (D Hold)
OH - VA-SEN 2000 redux (R Gain)
MT - ME-SEN 2020/MT-SEN 2012/MT-SEN 2018/MT-SEN 1996 redux (D Hold)
NV - NV-PRES 2016/NV-SEN 2016/NV-SEN 2018/NV-PRES 2020/NV-SEN 2022 redux (D Hold)
MI - FL-SEN 2018 redux (R Gain)
PA - WV-SEN 2012 refux (D Hold)
WI - WI-SEN 2012 redux (D Hold)
TX - FL-SEN 2018 redux (D Gain)
FL - TX-SEN 2012 redux (R Hold)

Did I do this right?

Switch MI and TX.