Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Adam Griffin]

The issue is that Democrats need absolutely everything to go perfectly for a win in Mississippi. We've seen it twice in the past 5 years: Hood and Espy came within 5-7 points of winning, each of whom had relatively different coalition combinations bringing them there. The problem was that neither could leverage all of the high-watermarks that the other did while maintaining their own. You need flawless black turnout and support, suburban white support and rural white support simultaneously: a candidate may be able to get 2 of the 3, but hitting all 3 is nigh impossible in a state where racial polarization exists at such levels.

Generational gaps also play a role. In 2012, Obama came within 5 points of winning the under-65 vote & Biden came within 10, but both got absolutely demolished with the 65+ electorate (we're talking losses of 35-40 points). Which group is more likely to be disproportionately represented in an off-year (no matter how regular) election?

[Adam Griffin]

I generally agree with DT, but if MS Democrats want to try to be competitive, they don't have many good options at this point. It's pretty clear that unless it's a Hood-type or a black male anomaly in a good cycle a la Espy, there's no real shot at keeping it within single-digits anyway.

Presley obviously can't overperform by the margins he did 8 years ago in NE MS, but from the looks of it, bridging some of the gap there - assuming he can appeal to enough whites and blacks elsewhere - is about as good as can be expected. Look at the 2 closest statewide races in recent memories and their various swings:



Presley wasn't contested in 2019, but in 2015, he managed to do 45 points better than Clinton, 35 points better than Espy-18, 33 points better than Hood-19 & 44 points better than Biden. If he could split the difference between his 2015 run and that of Espy/Hood while maintaining their margins elsewhere, it could enough to squeak out a victory. For reasons I've elaborated on prior (not to mention sheer downballot slide for Democrats in MS over the past decade), I can't see that happening, but alas: