Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Map thru 2025

26/24Rs

S-DEL GOV KATHY JENNINGS
T-IN GOV Braun
T-LA GOV Kennedy
T-MO GOV Ashcroft
P-NC GOV STEIN
T-WVA GOV Capito

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!

LoL, I am not downplaying our candidates but after tye revelation of Biden mishandling documents and we got our clocks cleaned by Johnson, Vance, Budd and Rubio I think Red states are going to stay red at least for now until we know tye results of this investigation we saw tye red realignment during the Lewinsky and Benghazi probe of Bill and Hillary Clinton

It wasn't Lewinsky that affected Bull Clinton's personally but the Congress realigned and Bush W heat Gore and Kerry after Clinton won LA, WV, AR, MO

Biden enjoys a 76 percent approvals among Ds but 7 percent among RS and with this scandal RS can net some more H and S Seats

We have seen zero polls but the Center Street Pac polls were bias 55/33 for Fetterman, Kelly, Shapiro and Ryan 48/39 and McMullen+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!

LoL, I am not downplaying our candidates but after tye revelation of Biden mishandling documents and we got our clocks cleaned by Johnson, Vance, Budd and Rubio I think Red states are going to stay red at least for now until we know tye results of this investigation we saw tye red realignment during the Lewinsky and Benghazi probe of Bill and Hillary Clinton

It wasn't Lewinsky that affected Bull Clinton personally but the Congress realigned and Bush W heat Gore and Kerry after Clinton won LA, WV, AR, MO

Biden enjoys a 76 percent approvals among Ds but 7 percent among RS and with this scandal RS can net some more H and S Seats

I doubt it will even be in news by the fall and will be on no ones minds.

I knew you was gonna say that it's connected to Hunter Biden, there is no probe yet into Hunter Biden all we got was Ukraine in 2020 clearing Hunter they lied he wasn't clear they the FBI that's why it's a scandal now, Ukraine kept saying Hunter Biden was clear

But we have to wait for tye Special Prosecuted

https://www.yahoo.com/news/numerous-people-visited-joe-bidens-181217398.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Presley can win , if we lose KY we can always win MS and LA has so many people we don't know whom is gonna win

Beshear is embroiled like Biden in a scandal , that's why it's called Eday not just predicting I never make exact maps you never know what happens

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's an upset pick but Beshear is embroiled in a Scandal

I make predicted maps on upsets not on ratings because our maps are predicting maps not ratings maps if you are gonna stick with ratings as a D you might as well not make map why would you make an R nut map like S019

But, as of yet there hasn't been any political fallout from Documents because no one has been charged yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because we don't know if the documents story is gonna punish D's or not, they are giving us conflict polls again DS lead on GCB +3 45)42 and Biden 44/48 but we know Biden can't be indicted Hunter, Trump and Pence can and they don't have 67 D to remove Biden and the RS only have 5 seats to impeach not enough


States do vote party trends but not ALL THE TIME KS GOV 2018/22 THAT USERS LIKE S019 WRONGLY PREDICTED FOR RS

They will never have a Red wave due to fact we had a 2 T surplus under Obama and Climton it was erased by a 1.4 T tax cut

Also, Brad Presley is Elvis Cuz just like Robert and Lee Oswald were cuz of Robert E Lee


Katie Bernhardt can win and. BOB KERN OF IN can beat Braun they are called upsets as well as KUNCE, in addition I don't have to donate to Act Blue now I can wait til near Eday

Users don't know the difference between upsets just like our predictions aren't ratings maps we can put whomever we want to win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's clearly a tossup but we don't know the political fallout from the documents I am gonna be very cautious because I made a Nut map again in 22 and my score was off but polls showed that blks were gonna show up in 22 and they did in the 303 states but not the 413 that's why Beasley and Ryan lost

So is NC Gov race is a Tossup but KY and LA maybe Lean R due to Beshear in a scandal like BIDEN

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10

Cuz of Elvis? That's not enough to win in a deeply red state like Mississippi. Nick Clooney, the father of George Clooney, ran for Congress in KY's fourth congressional district in 2004 yet he lost double digits

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky

News flash Kelly in KS won in an R 22 state and Beshear is ahead by 9 in KY R 20 stares vote partisan tends but not all the time and Cooper won in red state NC and Stein is tied in NC

Reeves only won by 5 he is fav but it's upset potential like FL Sen Scott and Reeves underpolls, you know whom gonna win by landslide Braun, Cox and Gianforte no one of major important is challenging them

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She did have a chance states vote partisan trends but not ALL THE TIME LOOK AT KS, KY GOV AND NH AND VT GOV PRIME EXAMPLE OH, MT SEN 2006/2012/2018 AND WV 2012/2018 we won them all

The reason why we lost OH Sen due to fact DeWine win by 25 not 3, Ryan lost by 6, not a landslide, Brown win in 2018 when DeWine win by 3 in 2028 Landsman is the heir Apparent to Ryan and can challenge Vance in 28 he will be ready

Brown has a much better chance than Ryan did due to DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24 and users if Brown wins say he is in instead no hes not he wins in D fav yrs

Bernie isn't running for Prez in 24 why due to Phil Scott is inevitable, that's why if Biden only if impeached and Rs only have 5 seat majority will give it to Harris in 24 not Bernie whom some say can't win due to being a Socialist and it will be Harris and Gilchrist

Hogan, Scott, Baker, Collins, and Sununu are prime examples of compassionate Conserv party winning in blue states and Youngkin and VA will go back D in 24 due to Kaine on ballot, but users think Hofmeister, or Beshear, or Brown or Presley can't win Hogwash

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do users quote me and I said D victory in red states including FL, OH, MT, MS, KY and WV are upsets but the McLaughlin GCB said 47/42 R and You Gov have it 46/45 because R pollsters don't acknowledge the Trump Docugate but only Biden

S019 and 2016 and SN are more hackish on Biden Docugate than I am and it's Feb it's a long way til Eday but now Beshear is clearly Fav

Look at S019 he still has his R nut map predicted maps up it's wrong .Cook and Sabato said Schmidt was gonna beat Laura Kelly and Rs were gonna net 20 seats clearly that's why we make user prediction not ratings map and I haven't made my user prediction I can take it back until I post one because Leip, Virginia and Solid or Pbower makes the user prediction maps and it's not up yet

Clearly Solid is speculation that he is Pbower they make maps that's beyond user prediction and Sold like Ferguson and S019 are Atlasia that's why it doesn't say Pbower is a Moderator it's Solid and Sir Woodbury told me Cookie Damage is solid too


I know you're not Solid because you aren't making maps beyond user prediction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note we are the Favs in KY this would be a monumental upset as well in LA is we win this but Presley down by 4 and there are Indies and 5/6 blks is close enough Beshear was 4 pts behind Bevin when he won in 2019 and all the RS are under 50 in LA not safe R but tilt R but you can't be sure RS aren't gonna avoid a Runoff with Shawn Wilson and win it

That's why it's called user PRED not ratings maps because we can pick whom we want but users are bold to make R nut maps still but not bold to make D nut map

There were enough Blks and females to put Barnes and Ryan ahead but Gerrymandering and midterm politics

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Cleveland, Wilson all won majority of Deep South States due to conceakefcweapin carry firearms and Conserv on Civil Rights so it's not unheard of WC Ds still winning in the S even if it's an R 22 state that's why Manchin and Tester aren't DOA because they are running in R 22 states as well

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

I didn't think the Mississippi Democratic Party had that much further to fall, but apparently you think they haven't hit rock bottom yet.  

So how much larger do you think the Republican majority in the Mississippi legislature will be after this November?  Here is the current breakdown:

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 36
Democrats: 16

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 76
Democrats: 42
independents: 3
vacant: 1

RS are Conserv on Guns in the Deep South but Brad Presley and Andy Beshear can reach out to Gun Crowd

But D's are banning guns is close the gun show loopholes, ban assault and conceal carry but Clarence Thomas has opened the Gun show loopholes without Fed Legislation

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait for Gov Elect Presley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We weren't gonna sweep them anyways the RS supposed to sweep and Beshear handled Tornado's the same way as Reeves but it's still time for Presley and Wilson to win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hosemann probably loses Jones County (McDaniel's home county) and/or Greene County in the primary for lieutenant governor, but easily wins renomination.

I could also see Lamar and George counties going for McDaniel

Yes. I wonder if Tate Reeves will lose any of them, even though he has no serious primary challengers.

No. Reeves will win every county. Witcher has no name recognition.
[/quote

It's not October and as always we still have to vote Biden is cruising to reelection it's gonna have reprcautions in every race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs haven't won anything this special Eday cycle and LA G isn't Safe R it's going to a Runoff I guess no one puts polls in database anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY is Tilt D; MS is Likely R

We know this but Rs haven't won anything since winning and upset in WI S in 22 due to IAN in 22 that's why MS can be flipped I still have it D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't poll the Gov race anymore I still have Presley winning

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not Safe R impact survey Presley 46, Reeves 46


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1696924118514270479?s=20

To all the naysayers

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will see Eday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Impact had it Gov Brad Presley why because he is cuz of Late Elvis Presley that's why he is gonna win in part due to Elvis Presley

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forecast for this day: Reeves 55-44

It's gonna be within 5 pts Reeves only won by 5 last time lol that's one poll that has Reeves up 11 and it's still 90 days til vote the other one has it tied, users take one poll just because it's R just like WSJ Trump is only up 1 and thinks it's the end all be all, I haven't changed my user PRED because while Trump gives tax cuts we got poorer since they stopped stimulus he and Oprah and Bloomberg got richer

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brandon Presley raised almost 6 million $ in the third quarter, a record for a MS Democrat:

https://desotocountynews.com/meet-the-candidates/presley-raises-5-6-million-in-third-quarter-breaks-fundraising-record/

I'm not sure he can win, but maybe it's gonna be closer than the polls say ...

Was coming in here to post this; here all this time I was thinking MS-GOV was gonna be another LA-GOV because of near zero investment from Dems, but given Presley's solid fundraising and DGA dropping $3.5M in the race, I wonder if this could be closer than we think.

Reeves won by only 5 Presley can win in a mnth