Mississippi Megathread 2023 (user search)
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  Mississippi Megathread 2023 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Mississippi Megathread 2023  (Read 20770 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: December 15, 2022, 04:27:54 PM »

The issue with Mississippi generally is that there are a lot of scandals enveloping the executive office right now,  which should make the R floor lower, but minority turnout will be a problem in a D-Pres off year, which hurts the Dems even if they improve with whites. Like a replication of November won't be good in a state like Mississippi, even though it was fine in Georgia. 
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: January 20, 2023, 02:58:27 PM »

Getting OK-GOV 2022 vibes from this one (supposed unpopularity of the incumbent Republican governor is greatly exaggerated, race is quickly rated as competitive, D challenger ends up doing worse than the last D challenger with 'surprisingly' little movement in four years).

Also, the bottom really fell out for MS Democrats in 2022 on a night when Democrats more than held their own nationally. House Democrats lost the popular vote in MS by 29 points and came very close to having their worst House result in history.

I agree, though the 2022 results can be more or less explained by the congressional races being the only things on the ballot thanks to how MS staggers their elections. I think the one main difference is that the GOP are not all behind Reeves: we got Waller Jr. chat already and Retiring Speaker Philip Gunn seems to want to go for some executive office. Reeves has old-fashioned rather than ultra-partisan scandals, so there's every chance he just loses the primary.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2023, 08:08:37 PM »
« Edited: August 08, 2023, 08:14:40 PM by Oryxslayer »

The random selection of early results from scattered counties across the state suggests a close race for Lt. Gov, and Reeves easily winning the Gov race albeit with noticeable drop-off that shouldn't normally be occurring when an incumbent faces nobodies.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3 on: August 08, 2023, 08:49:40 PM »

I was counting up and (please correct me if I’m wrong) but only 20 state senators have any sort of competition, with the bulk of it being in the primary. So the majority of Mississippians will have no election for state senate this fall.

The map is a fairly awful gerrymander. You know things are bad when there are more Section 2 claims in the state legislative lawsuit against the smaller State Senate than the larger State House.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2023, 03:59:36 PM »

Fundamentally, what distinguishes Presley from Hood?  As a longtime incumbent, did Hood come off as "too establishment"?  I also see some comments upthread that Hood's sincerity as a social conservative was in doubt? 

The main difference is not on him, but on Reeves. Now he's the incumbent and comparably unpopular thanks to scandals surrounding the state executive office.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2023, 09:53:13 PM »

Anyone rate his chances for an open seat rerun in 2027 (especially if Trump wins next year) or would that just be a Stacey Abrams-style redux?


Nobody should be speculating about this, beyond the fact that he is probably to be the candidate with his age and the limited state bench. Four years is a generation in the political scene. That is especially the case when we are talking about a race that will only be competitive because of local factors, scandals, and personalities - not trends or shifts in voter behavior like Georgia. Those factors are impossible to discern this far out.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2023, 05:40:01 PM »

I've always wondered how Roy Moore vs Doug Jones would have turned out in Mississippi. One hand, its a less red state so Jones could do better. But its also much more racially polarized than Alabama, perhaps helping Moore?

Jones didn't really win by converting Republicans to his tent, outside of the handful of places you would expect it like the Birmingham suburbs. He mainly won cause the GOP coalition refused to turn out and vote for a pedo. Knowing the seat would return to them in a few years helped in that regard. That would suggest a larger lead cause the Dem base is larger.
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