Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Duke of York]

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!

LoL, I am not downplaying our candidates but after tye revelation of Biden mishandling documents and we got our clocks cleaned by Johnson, Vance, Budd and Rubio I think Red states are going to stay red at least for now until we know tye results of this investigation we saw tye red realignment during the Lewinsky and Benghazi probe of Bill and Hillary Clinton

It wasn't Lewinsky that affected Bull Clinton personally but the Congress realigned and Bush W heat Gore and Kerry after Clinton won LA, WV, AR, MO

Biden enjoys a 76 percent approvals among Ds but 7 percent among RS and with this scandal RS can net some more H and S Seats

I doubt it will even be in news by the fall and will be on no ones minds.

[Duke of York]

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10

You already called the Kentucky election  for whoever the Republican is. Why are you applying a different standard here saying its too early to make a prediction?

[Duke of York]

She did have a chance states vote partisan trends but not ALL THE TIME LOOK AT KS, KY GOV AND NH AND VT GOV PRIME EXAMPLE OH, MT SEN 2006/2012/2018 AND WV 2012/2018 we won them all

The reason why we lost OH Sen due to fact DeWine win by 25 not 3, Ryan lost by 6, not a landslide, Brown win in 2018 when DeWine win by 3 in 2028 Landsman is the heir Apparent to Ryan and can challenge Vance in 28 he will be ready

Brown has a much better chance than Ryan did due to DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24 and users if Brown wins say he is in instead no hes not he wins in D fav yrs

Bernie isn't running for Prez in 24 why due to Phil Scott is inevitable, that's why if Biden only if impeached and Rs only have 5 seat majority will give it to Harris in 24 not Bernie whom some say can't win due to being a Socialist and it will be Harris and Gilchrist

Hogan, Scott, Baker, Collins, and Sununu are prime examples of compassionate Conserv party winning in blue states and Youngkin and VA will go back D in 24 due to Kaine on ballot, but users think Hofmeister, or Beshear, or Brown or Presley can't win Hogwash

You already said Beshear will lose. Are you taking back that prediction?

[Duke of York]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

[Duke of York]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

In a state where white voters support the Republican Party at levels similar to the nearly universal support of Black voters to Democrats, what is the point in running for certain seats other than utter delusion?

A party should not be able to win a majority in the legislature by default. If I was the Republican Party leader I’d tell people not to vote for state legislative candidates even the candidates themselves so they get zero votes and a special election is forced.

[Duke of York]

Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

I didn't think the Mississippi Democratic Party had that much further to fall, but apparently you think they haven't hit rock bottom yet.  

So how much larger do you think the Republican majority in the Mississippi legislature will be after this November?  Here is the current breakdown:

Mississippi Senate:

Republicans: 36
Democrats: 16

Mississippi House:

Republicans: 76
Democrats: 42
independents: 3
vacant: 1

with so many of them unopposed and winning the majority by default if i was  Republican chair of the Mississippi party I would tell people to leave the state legislative election in their district blank and for not even the candidate themselves to cast a ballot in that election so they get zero votes and a special election is held.

No one should run unopposed in a general election.

[Duke of York]

It's not Safe R impact survey Presley 46, Reeves 46


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1696924118514270479?s=20

To all the naysayers

I still think most of the undecideds will go to Reeves.

[Duke of York]

Impact had it Gov Brad Presley why because he is cuz of Late Elvis Presley that's why he is gonna win in part due to Elvis Presley

I think its going to close but the partisan lean of the state and extreme polarization will put Reeves over the top.

[Duke of York]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

[Duke of York]

Reeves does give Jon Corzine vibes. Sadly no third party candidate to skim off some iffy republican support.

MS has a runoff law, so a 3rd party would just send a close race into December.

I think it won’t be close in the end. This is a D internal, but I suspect even the regular polls are underestimating Rs in the Deep South due to black voters shifting fast. It could look like Oklahoma 2022, but at least Hofmeister actually led in some polls.

there is zero evidence whatsoever of this.

We saw this in Alabama/Mississippi/Louisiana/Georgia/North Carolina 2022 and Louisiana 2023. The result in a single state doesn’t mean much, but when the same pattern occurs in multiple states and multiple candidates and shows up in 2024 polling something is probably up.

Black voters voted more strongly for Warnock than they did for Biden 2020. Also, black turnout in a midterm to a presidential election is not really comparable. Lastly, again, 2022 polling showed the same thing and it did not bear out in actual results.

It did though. The black belt shifted several points right across many different states as I showed earlier, including in Walker vs Warnock (where Baldwin and Washington flipped despite Warnock being a perfect fit). Sure, urban blacks in Philly didn’t move right, but that’s different from rural black voters. Oversell, Republicans did about 5% better with black voters in 2022 than 2020, and Landry specifically got 12% versus Trump’s 10% despite only being 3/4 of the Republican votes (so Republicans probably combined for 16%).

Warnock did gain in places like Clayton and DeKalb, but these are irrelevant in Mississippi.

Presidential elections are different from midterms