Mississippi Megathread 2023
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Author Topic: Mississippi Megathread 2023  (Read 2514 times)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #25 on: January 12, 2023, 10:44:43 PM »
« edited: January 12, 2023, 10:49:50 PM by Adam Griffin »

I generally agree with DT, but if MS Democrats want to try to be competitive, they don't have many good options at this point. It's pretty clear that unless it's a Hood-type or a black male anomaly in a good cycle a la Espy, there's no real shot at keeping it within single-digits anyway.

Presley obviously can't overperform by the margins he did 8 years ago in NE MS, but from the looks of it, bridging some of the gap there - assuming he can appeal to enough whites and blacks elsewhere - is about as good as can be expected. Look at the 2 closest statewide races in recent memories and their various swings:



Presley wasn't contested in 2019, but in 2015, he managed to do 45 points better than Clinton, 35 points better than Espy-18, 33 points better than Hood-19 & 44 points better than Biden. If he could split the difference between his 2015 run and that of Espy/Hood while maintaining their margins elsewhere, it could enough to squeak out a victory. For reasons I've elaborated on prior (not to mention sheer downballot slide for Democrats in MS over the past decade), I can't see that happening, but alas:



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libertpaulian
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« Reply #26 on: January 13, 2023, 11:34:04 AM »

He'd have to get what? 25-27% of white voters just to break even, assuming black turnout is excellent?
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #27 on: January 13, 2023, 01:05:59 PM »

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign. 
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #28 on: January 13, 2023, 05:43:21 PM »

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #29 on: January 13, 2023, 06:22:25 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2023, 06:26:47 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!

LoL, I am not downplaying our candidates but after tye revelation of Biden mishandling documents and we got our clocks cleaned by Johnson, Vance, Budd and Rubio I think Red states are going to stay red at least for now until we know tye results of this investigation we saw tye red realignment during the Lewinsky and Benghazi probe of Bill and Hillary Clinton

It wasn't Lewinsky that affected Bull Clinton's personally but the Congress realigned and Bush W heat Gore and Kerry after Clinton won LA, WV, AR, MO

Biden enjoys a 76 percent approvals among Ds but 7 percent among RS and with this scandal RS can net some more H and S Seats

We have seen zero polls but the Center Street Pac polls were bias 55/33 for Fetterman, Kelly, Shapiro and Ryan 48/39 and McMullen+1
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Duke of York
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« Reply #30 on: January 13, 2023, 06:26:31 PM »

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!

LoL, I am not downplaying our candidates but after tye revelation of Biden mishandling documents and we got our clocks cleaned by Johnson, Vance, Budd and Rubio I think Red states are going to stay red at least for now until we know tye results of this investigation we saw tye red realignment during the Lewinsky and Benghazi probe of Bill and Hillary Clinton

It wasn't Lewinsky that affected Bull Clinton personally but the Congress realigned and Bush W heat Gore and Kerry after Clinton won LA, WV, AR, MO

Biden enjoys a 76 percent approvals among Ds but 7 percent among RS and with this scandal RS can net some more H and S Seats

I doubt it will even be in news by the fall and will be on no ones minds.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #31 on: January 13, 2023, 06:27:32 PM »
« Edited: January 13, 2023, 06:30:33 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Well,
Let's try to run decent candidates everywhere!

LoL, I am not downplaying our candidates but after tye revelation of Biden mishandling documents and we got our clocks cleaned by Johnson, Vance, Budd and Rubio I think Red states are going to stay red at least for now until we know tye results of this investigation we saw tye red realignment during the Lewinsky and Benghazi probe of Bill and Hillary Clinton

It wasn't Lewinsky that affected Bull Clinton personally but the Congress realigned and Bush W heat Gore and Kerry after Clinton won LA, WV, AR, MO

Biden enjoys a 76 percent approvals among Ds but 7 percent among RS and with this scandal RS can net some more H and S Seats

I doubt it will even be in news by the fall and will be on no ones minds.

I knew you was gonna say that it's connected to Hunter Biden, there is no probe yet into Hunter Biden all we got was Ukraine in 2020 clearing Hunter they lied he wasn't clear they the FBI that's why it's a scandal now, Ukraine kept saying Hunter Biden was clear

But we have to wait for tye Special Prosecuted

https://www.yahoo.com/news/numerous-people-visited-joe-bidens-181217398.html
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MR. ANTHONY DEVOLDER
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« Reply #32 on: January 13, 2023, 07:26:29 PM »

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign. 

Who would you support in that scenario?
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Spectakle
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« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2023, 11:58:58 AM »

Sec of State Michael Watson is considering primarying out Reeves. I don’t think he goes for it, but I think he almost certainly runs in 2027.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2023, 12:12:06 PM »

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign. 

Waller did not endorse Reeves in 2019.

Waller's Dad, William Waller, Sr., was a moderate Democratic Governor from 1972-76.  I wonder what Waller, Jr's real politics are, and whether or not he'd fit in as a Democrat nowadays. 
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Spectakle
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« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2023, 12:15:40 PM »

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign.  

Waller did not endorse Reeves in 2019.

Waller's Dad, William Waller, Sr., was a moderate Democratic Governor from 1972-76.  I wonder what Waller, Jr's real politics are, and whether or not he'd fit in as a Democrat nowadays.  
Waller’s main policies in 2019 were a  gas tax and Medicaid expansion.
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2023, 01:46:51 PM »

As for Reeve's primary troubles - Bill Waller, Jr., the former chief justice of the Mississippi Supreme Court who forced Reeves into a runoff in 2019, is said to be seriously considering launching a rematch campaign. 

Who would you support in that scenario?

I voted for Waller in 2019 and would vote for him again.  I’d vote for Presley over either of them, however.
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OneJ
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« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2023, 02:47:51 AM »

Should Waller jump into the GOP primary I might just vote for him instead of voting in the Dem primary. I don't expect Reeves to be successfully primaried, but he's horrible and I do think it'd better serve the state if the Governor who'll certainly be a Republican would be a more moderate one.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2023, 02:22:12 PM »

This is obviously a long shot, but I don't think it's Safe R. Generally these sorts of upsets require a great D candidate, a very unpopular R candidate, and a great national environment (a la KY-GOV 2019). This race has 2/3, that alone makes it Likely R imo
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Spectator
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« Reply #39 on: January 20, 2023, 02:03:48 PM »

This is obviously a long shot, but I don't think it's Safe R. Generally these sorts of upsets require a great D candidate, a very unpopular R candidate, and a great national environment (a la KY-GOV 2019). This race has 2/3, that alone makes it Likely R imo

I feel like Reeves would have to be extremely unpopular to lose even to a candidate as good as Presley or Hood. Like in the low 30s in popularity.
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MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain)
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« Reply #40 on: January 20, 2023, 02:27:38 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2023, 02:41:46 PM by MT Treasurer (Daines's Brain) »

Getting OK-GOV 2022 vibes from this one (supposed unpopularity of the incumbent Republican governor is greatly exaggerated, race is quickly rated as competitive, D challenger ends up doing worse than the last D challenger with 'surprisingly' little movement in four years).

Also, the bottom really fell out for MS Democrats in 2022 on a night when Democrats more than held their own nationally. House Democrats lost the popular vote in MS by 29 points and came very close to having their worst House result in history.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #41 on: January 20, 2023, 02:58:27 PM »

Getting OK-GOV 2022 vibes from this one (supposed unpopularity of the incumbent Republican governor is greatly exaggerated, race is quickly rated as competitive, D challenger ends up doing worse than the last D challenger with 'surprisingly' little movement in four years).

Also, the bottom really fell out for MS Democrats in 2022 on a night when Democrats more than held their own nationally. House Democrats lost the popular vote in MS by 29 points and came very close to having their worst House result in history.

I agree, though the 2022 results can be more or less explained by the congressional races being the only things on the ballot thanks to how MS staggers their elections. I think the one main difference is that the GOP are not all behind Reeves: we got Waller Jr. chat already and Retiring Speaker Philip Gunn seems to want to go for some executive office. Reeves has old-fashioned rather than ultra-partisan scandals, so there's every chance he just loses the primary.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #42 on: January 20, 2023, 03:55:52 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2023, 04:35:11 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

Presley can win , if we lose KY we can always win MS and LA has so many people we don't know whom is gonna win

Beshear is embroiled like Biden in a scandal , that's why it's called Eday not just predicting I never make exact maps you never know what happens
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #43 on: January 20, 2023, 11:22:26 PM »

Presley can win , if we lose KY we can always win MS and LA has so many people we don't know whom is gonna win

Beshear is embroiled like Biden in a scandal , that's why it's called Eday not just predicting I never make exact maps you never know what happens

You heard it here first, folks. The oracle has spoken. MS is better for Dems than KY.
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Zedonathin2020
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« Reply #44 on: January 22, 2023, 04:00:01 PM »

Presley can win , if we lose KY we can always win MS and LA has so many people we don't know whom is gonna win

Beshear is embroiled like Biden in a scandal , that's why it's called Eday not just predicting I never make exact maps you never know what happens

You heard it here first, folks. The oracle has spoken. MS is better for Dems than KY.

All hail the mighty olawakandi!
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #45 on: January 22, 2023, 04:25:56 PM »

It's an upset pick but Beshear is embroiled in a Scandal

I make predicted maps on upsets not on ratings because our maps are predicting maps not ratings maps if you are gonna stick with ratings as a D you might as well not make map why would you make an R nut map like S019

But, as of yet there hasn't been any political fallout from Documents because no one has been charged yet
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UWS
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« Reply #46 on: January 22, 2023, 05:51:14 PM »

Pressley can't beat Reeves in a deeply red state like Mississippi. George Flaggs Jr. will likely divide the Democratic vote in Mississippi

Pressley opposed the Kemper Project even though natural gas accounted for 72% of Mississippi's electricity net generation in 2021 and was the primary fuel used at 9 of the state's 10 largest power plants. That is a terrific stance if you want to raise money in San Francisco, hometown of socialist Nancy Pelosi. But that is a terrible if you actually worry about jobs in Mississippi and Mississippi's electricity generation.
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Frodo
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« Reply #47 on: January 22, 2023, 05:56:01 PM »

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #48 on: January 24, 2023, 11:19:52 PM »

Y'all are reading George Flaggs the wrong way, btw.  He's a Republican-aligned mayor these days.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #49 on: January 25, 2023, 06:58:08 AM »
« Edited: January 25, 2023, 07:20:36 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10
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