Mississippi Megathread 2023

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because we don't know if the documents story is gonna punish D's or not, they are giving us conflict polls again DS lead on GCB +3 45)42 and Biden 44/48 but we know Biden can't be indicted Hunter, Trump and Pence can and they don't have 67 D to remove Biden and the RS only have 5 seats to impeach not enough


States do vote party trends but not ALL THE TIME KS GOV 2018/22 THAT USERS LIKE S019 WRONGLY PREDICTED FOR RS

They will never have a Red wave due to fact we had a 2 T surplus under Obama and Climton it was erased by a 1.4 T tax cut

Also, Brad Presley is Elvis Cuz just like Robert and Lee Oswald were cuz of Robert E Lee


Katie Bernhardt can win and. BOB KERN OF IN can beat Braun they are called upsets as well as KUNCE, in addition I don't have to donate to Act Blue now I can wait til near Eday

Users don't know the difference between upsets just like our predictions aren't ratings maps we can put whomever we want to win

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1618632864605802496?s=46&t=sbQEulMCW...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's clearly a tossup but we don't know the political fallout from the documents I am gonna be very cautious because I made a Nut map again in 22 and my score was off but polls showed that blks were gonna show up in 22 and they did in the 303 states but not the 413 that's why Beasley and Ryan lost

So is NC Gov race is a Tossup but KY and LA maybe Lean R due to Beshear in a scandal like BIDEN

[Timberland]

Chris McDaniel is back! He’s running for Lt Gov.

Will he defeat Hoseman in the primary?

[Biden his time]

Generational gaps also play a role. In 2012, Obama came within 5 points of winning the under-65 vote & Biden came within 10, but both got absolutely demolished with the 65+ electorate (we're talking losses of 35-40 points). Which group is more likely to be disproportionately represented in an off-year (no matter how regular) election?

The fact that Clinton and Biden did worse than Obama shows the importance of Black turnout.

BTW Mississippi is gonna be hitting peak Black soon (it might already have in fact), meaning that Democrats can't rely on Black voters aging or moving into the electorate, like they did in Georgia.

Other factors must be in play here.

[UWS]

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10

Cuz of Elvis? That's not enough to win in a deeply red state like Mississippi. Nick Clooney, the father of George Clooney, ran for Congress in KY's fourth congressional district in 2004 yet he lost double digits

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10

Cuz of Elvis? That's not enough to win in a deeply red state like Mississippi. Nick Clooney, the father of George Clooney, ran for Congress in KY's fourth congressional district in 2004 yet he lost double digits

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky

Your next post is probably going to be that Brandon Pressley is a socialist, isn't it?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No Blue Dog Democrat is getting elected governor in Mississippi ever again.  If even Jim Hood couldn't make it in 2019, Brandon Pressley certainly can't.  

LoL stop it's only Feb , it's an upset but RS are fav but you cant neglect that Brad Presley cuz of Elvis is only 4 down not 10

Cuz of Elvis? That's not enough to win in a deeply red state like Mississippi. Nick Clooney, the father of George Clooney, ran for Congress in KY's fourth congressional district in 2004 yet he lost double digits

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Kentucky

News flash Kelly in KS won in an R 22 state and Beshear is ahead by 9 in KY R 20 stares vote partisan tends but not all the time and Cooper won in red state NC and Stein is tied in NC

Reeves only won by 5 he is fav but it's upset potential like FL Sen Scott and Reeves underpolls, you know whom gonna win by landslide Braun, Cox and Gianforte no one of major important is challenging them

[Schiff for Senate]

Getting OK-GOV 2022 vibes from this one (supposed unpopularity of the incumbent Republican governor is greatly exaggerated, race is quickly rated as competitive, D challenger ends up doing worse than the last D challenger with 'surprisingly' little movement in four years).

Also, the bottom really fell out for MS Democrats in 2022 on a night when Democrats more than held their own nationally. House Democrats lost the popular vote in MS by 29 points and came very close to having their worst House result in history.

I'm sorry, but I truly don't recall anyone on here ever suggesting OK-GOV was competitive. Maybe I'm wrong, in which case feel free to show me where any poster suggested OK-GOV was a tossup or whatever, but otherwise, this is an obvious strawman. Yes, Hofmeister did put up quite an impressive performance, but she never had a chance at actually winning, and I'm really not sure that anyone thought she did.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She did have a chance states vote partisan trends but not ALL THE TIME LOOK AT KS, KY GOV AND NH AND VT GOV PRIME EXAMPLE OH, MT SEN 2006/2012/2018 AND WV 2012/2018 we won them all

The reason why we lost OH Sen due to fact DeWine win by 25 not 3, Ryan lost by 6, not a landslide, Brown win in 2018 when DeWine win by 3 in 2028 Landsman is the heir Apparent to Ryan and can challenge Vance in 28 he will be ready

Brown has a much better chance than Ryan did due to DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24 and users if Brown wins say he is in instead no hes not he wins in D fav yrs

Bernie isn't running for Prez in 24 why due to Phil Scott is inevitable, that's why if Biden only if impeached and Rs only have 5 seat majority will give it to Harris in 24 not Bernie whom some say can't win due to being a Socialist and it will be Harris and Gilchrist

Hogan, Scott, Baker, Collins, and Sununu are prime examples of compassionate Conserv party winning in blue states and Youngkin and VA will go back D in 24 due to Kaine on ballot, but users think Hofmeister, or Beshear, or Brown or Presley can't win Hogwash

[Duke of York]

She did have a chance states vote partisan trends but not ALL THE TIME LOOK AT KS, KY GOV AND NH AND VT GOV PRIME EXAMPLE OH, MT SEN 2006/2012/2018 AND WV 2012/2018 we won them all

The reason why we lost OH Sen due to fact DeWine win by 25 not 3, Ryan lost by 6, not a landslide, Brown win in 2018 when DeWine win by 3 in 2028 Landsman is the heir Apparent to Ryan and can challenge Vance in 28 he will be ready

Brown has a much better chance than Ryan did due to DeWine isn't on the ballot in 24 and users if Brown wins say he is in instead no hes not he wins in D fav yrs

Bernie isn't running for Prez in 24 why due to Phil Scott is inevitable, that's why if Biden only if impeached and Rs only have 5 seat majority will give it to Harris in 24 not Bernie whom some say can't win due to being a Socialist and it will be Harris and Gilchrist

Hogan, Scott, Baker, Collins, and Sununu are prime examples of compassionate Conserv party winning in blue states and Youngkin and VA will go back D in 24 due to Kaine on ballot, but users think Hofmeister, or Beshear, or Brown or Presley can't win Hogwash

You already said Beshear will lose. Are you taking back that prediction?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do users quote me and I said D victory in red states including FL, OH, MT, MS, KY and WV are upsets but the McLaughlin GCB said 47/42 R and You Gov have it 46/45 because R pollsters don't acknowledge the Trump Docugate but only Biden

S019 and 2016 and SN are more hackish on Biden Docugate than I am and it's Feb it's a long way til Eday but now Beshear is clearly Fav

Look at S019 he still has his R nut map predicted maps up it's wrong .Cook and Sabato said Schmidt was gonna beat Laura Kelly and Rs were gonna net 20 seats clearly that's why we make user prediction not ratings map and I haven't made my user prediction I can take it back until I post one because Leip, Virginia and Solid or Pbower makes the user prediction maps and it's not up yet

Clearly Solid is speculation that he is Pbower they make maps that's beyond user prediction and Sold like Ferguson and S019 are Atlasia that's why it doesn't say Pbower is a Moderator it's Solid and Sir Woodbury told me Cookie Damage is solid too


I know you're not Solid because you aren't making maps beyond user prediction

[Del Tachi]

Chris McDaniel is back! He’s running for Lt Gov.

Will he defeat Hoseman in the primary?

No.  Hosemann is probably the most popular statewide Republican. 

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/maryfrancesmcg/status/1620451079283707911?s=46&t=feyXbnL...

[Frodo]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

[Duke of York]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's important to note we are the Favs in KY this would be a monumental upset as well in LA is we win this but Presley down by 4 and there are Indies and 5/6 blks is close enough Beshear was 4 pts behind Bevin when he won in 2019 and all the RS are under 50 in LA not safe R but tilt R but you can't be sure RS aren't gonna avoid a Runoff with Shawn Wilson and win it

That's why it's called user PRED not ratings maps because we can pick whom we want but users are bold to make R nut maps still but not bold to make D nut map

There were enough Blks and females to put Barnes and Ryan ahead but Gerrymandering and midterm politics

[Rookie Yinzer]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

In a state where white voters support the Republican Party at levels similar to the nearly universal support of Black voters to Democrats, what is the point in running for certain seats other than utter delusion?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

In a state where white voters support the Republican Party at levels similar to the nearly universal support of Black voters to Democrats, what is the point in running for certain seats other than utter delusion?

Well, uncontested races are always bad for democracy IMO.

[Duke of York]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

In a state where white voters support the Republican Party at levels similar to the nearly universal support of Black voters to Democrats, what is the point in running for certain seats other than utter delusion?

A party should not be able to win a majority in the legislature by default. If I was the Republican Party leader I’d tell people not to vote for state legislative candidates even the candidates themselves so they get zero votes and a special election is forced.

[smoltchanov]

Courtesy of Ballotpedia, I found out an interesting bit of history was just made recently -for the first time since Reconstruction, there are enough Republicans running for either chamber without Democratic opponents such that the control of the legislature has already been ensured without a single ballot being cast.

Truly pathetic how many seats and statewide offices were left unopposed. I wish everyone who votes would leave those uncontested seats blank so they lose.

In a state where white voters support the Republican Party at levels similar to the nearly universal support of Black voters to Democrats, what is the point in running for certain seats other than utter delusion?

Well, Mississippi, Alabama and (almost always) Louisiana elections became utterly predictable of late: look at percentage of Blacks in the district, and it will be a good approximation of Democratic percentage in election. Boring... (people like JBE, combining economic populism with strong social conservatism on at least some issues, are  exception now) And no initiative for anyone to run in "impossible districts". I said many times that it seems to me, that  after Civil Rights epoch, almost all whites in these states said to themselves: "we will obey the law, but we don't want to have anything in common with such Democratic party: liberal, mostly Black, and so on"... And - migrated "en masse" to Republican party, leaving Democratic even more liberal and even more "Black". Now even those Democrats, who are called "conservatives" in  the South, are  MUCH less conservative then in the past (no comparison at all, frankly), they are "relatively conservative" (usually - centrist) at most..... Party - changed immensely, and - NOT to most whites in these states liking.....

P.S. Look at numbers: in Alabama only 1 white Democratic state Senator remains (and 2 white state representatives) - all from majority Black districts AFAIK... The same (approximately) will be in Mississippi, where most remaining white Democrats retire this year (and one - switched to Indie in this term, and now - running as a Republican, despite generally centrist voting for years). Only slightly better - in Louisiana.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jefferson, Madison, Jackson, Cleveland, Wilson all won majority of Deep South States due to conceakefcweapin carry firearms and Conserv on Civil Rights so it's not unheard of WC Ds still winning in the S even if it's an R 22 state that's why Manchin and Tester aren't DOA because they are running in R 22 states as well

[Suburbia]

The tension between predominantly Black-run Jackson and white Mississippi continues as Mayor Lumumba accuses the white Mississippi Republican legislature of "colonizing" the city with a new court system...

This tension is the reason why Reeves doesn't want to work with Jackson mayor and the people there.....it's damned if you do, damned if you don't...

https://lawandcrime.com/voting-rights/they-forgot-to-wear-their-hoods-mississippi-mayor-says-new-law-would-create-colonized-court-system-in-district/#disqus_thread

The only way a Black MS Democrat wins statewide in MS if if they are moderate and they get 30%-40% of the white vote.

Sadly, MS is too racially polarized.

[smoltchanov]

The tension between predominantly Black-run Jackson and white Mississippi continues as Mayor Lumumba accuses the white Mississippi Republican legislature of "colonizing" the city with a new court system...

This tension is the reason why Reeves doesn't want to work with Jackson mayor and the people there.....it's damned if you do, damned if you don't...

https://lawandcrime.com/voting-rights/they-forgot-to-wear-their-hoods-mississippi-mayor-says-new-law-would-create-colonized-court-system-in-district/#disqus_thread

The only way a Black MS Democrat wins statewide in MS if if they are moderate and they get 30%-40% of the white vote.

Sadly, MS is too racially polarized.

Even that may be not enough. Espy was relatively moderate, got better, then usual, percentage of white vote - and still lost. And even white moderate (with sightly conservative social positions) will have difficulties getting such percentages of white vote, as Hood (and, probably, Presley in the future too) campaign has showed. Democrats could win as long as they were "Mississippi Democrats", but most of those people (if still alive) are long ago Republicans, and, besides, such candidate could have serious difficulties in Black-dominated Democratic primary. Gary Anderson defeated (after sort of scandal) conservative George Dale for Insurance Commissioner in 2007 - and then - easily lost GE race, which Dale would almost undoubtedly win (he was "one of them" - trusted solid conservative). Frequent contradiction in Deep South for Democrats: rare candidates, who are able to win GE, are, mostly, unable to win primary. And vice versa... The party offers "national Democratic" (in their views and positions) candidates to electorate, while majority of it wants nothing common with them... (the same problem with Republicans in many areas of Northeast and Pacific coast: insistence on "right" candidates, who can't win GE)

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/BrandonPresley/status/1620210581516226561