Would McCain winning in 2008 have been the most heartbreaking timeline?

[darklordoftech]

Because it would suggest that a black man can’t win.

[Suburbia]

Yes.

It might have led to the collapse of the Democratic base for a few years, because black voters would not turnout anymore.

[OSR stands with Israel]

For conservatives yes , since the 10th year itch in 2010 would have been a disaster for the GOP and then in 2012 they almost certainly get bounced from the White House and would be left in their  worst position they have been since 1965.

[Alben Barkley]

Hillary wins in 2012 in this timeline so far from it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Hillary wins in 2012 in this timeline so far from it.

And comes in with the largest House Majority the Democrats have had since 1979 and largest Senate majority since 1965. Plus democrats get a huge advantage in the 2011 redistricting cycle so they probably can lock in their majorities for a while .

It would be a catastrophe for conservatives though

[Alben Barkley]

Hillary wins in 2012 in this timeline so far from it.

And comes in with the largest House Majority the Democrats have had since 1979 and largest Senate majority since 1965. Plus democrats get a huge advantage in the 2011 redistricting cycle so they probably can lock in their majorities for a while .

It would be a catastrophe for conservatives though

Yeah... I would most definitely prefer all that + Hillary in office + McCain of all people being the Republican caretaker for 4 years over what we got.

[Vice President Christian Man]

It depends on one of the following:

A. He instigates/starts another war which ends up being more devastating than Iraq, potentially nuclear
B. McCain dies in office and Palin turns out to be a bad leader

But at least our Constitution would remain intact and our values wouldn't be tampered with so it could certainly be worse.

[dw93]

No. Trump winning in 2020 or even Romney winning in 2012 would've been heartbreaking.

[Mr. Smith]

Only if Hillary was the opponent, as it'd stop the glass ceiling and the black man was already out, leading to lots of backlash and blame.

Not to mention Hillary had more guts than Obama.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Hillary wins in 2012 in this timeline so far from it.

And comes in with the largest House Majority the Democrats have had since 1979 and largest Senate majority since 1965. Plus democrats get a huge advantage in the 2011 redistricting cycle so they probably can lock in their majorities for a while .

It would be a catastrophe for conservatives though

Yeah... I would most definitely prefer all that + Hillary in office + McCain of all people being the Republican caretaker for 4 years over what we got.

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/1592601216520962053

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The problem with this scenario is it brings up the question under what scenario can a Democrat win? 2008 was probably the worst fundamentals for a Republican Administration since the Great Depression. Like seriously look at the economic situation, the foreign situation with the Iraq War and outgoing administration's popularity...and the Democrats couldn't even win the White House under that? That's a sure fire recipe for Democratic nihilism.

[Hope For A New Era]

Not at all. McCain is easily the least-bad R nominee since Bush 1, and perhaps even since Eisenhower. Not to mention the 2010s would be completely averted.

I still prefer the outcome we got, but it wouldn't have been heartbreaking. 2016 was heartbreaking.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The problem with this scenario is it brings up the question under what scenario can a Democrat win? 2008 was probably the worst fundamentals for a Republican Administration since the Great Depression. Like seriously look at the economic situation, the foreign situation with the Iraq War and outgoing administration's popularity...and the Democrats couldn't even win the White House under that? That's a sure fire recipe for Democratic nihilism.

Lehman gets delayed by a year could be a scenario and McCain barely scraps it out with this map

[Dani Rose]

Yeah, certainly not. The way I see it, the malaise of three terms of direly unpopular Republican leadership would turn 2010 into an absolute horror show for them, and in 2012 someone to Obama's left - Sanders being a very strong possibility - runs, buries McCain, and ushers in progressivism as the new norm.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yeah, certainly not. The way I see it, the malaise of three terms of direly unpopular Republican leadership would turn 2010 into an absolute horror show for them, and in 2012 someone to Obama's left - Sanders being a very strong possibility - runs, buries McCain, and ushers in progressivism as the new norm.

Hillary would beat Bernie in the 2012 Dem primaries after the progressive candidate lost in 2008 and then would win big.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

The problem with this scenario is it brings up the question under what scenario can a Democrat win? 2008 was probably the worst fundamentals for a Republican Administration since the Great Depression. Like seriously look at the economic situation, the foreign situation with the Iraq War and outgoing administration's popularity...and the Democrats couldn't even win the White House under that? That's a sure fire recipe for Democratic nihilism.

Lehman gets delayed by a year could be a scenario and McCain barely scraps it out with this map

Bush's approval ratings were really bad even before Lehman. I always thought no recession PLUS getting bin Laden in September or October might've led to a narrow Republican win in 2008.

[Suburbia]

The problem with this scenario is it brings up the question under what scenario can a Democrat win? 2008 was probably the worst fundamentals for a Republican Administration since the Great Depression. Like seriously look at the economic situation, the foreign situation with the Iraq War and outgoing administration's popularity...and the Democrats couldn't even win the White House under that? That's a sure fire recipe for Democratic nihilism.

True.......2008 was a sure Democratic win.......if the Dems were divided by the Clinton/Obama rancor and such.....2012 would have Dean or someone as the nominee....someone who purges the Clintons out of the party for good....

[Liminal Trans Girl]

The problem with this scenario is it brings up the question under what scenario can a Democrat win? 2008 was probably the worst fundamentals for a Republican Administration since the Great Depression. Like seriously look at the economic situation, the foreign situation with the Iraq War and outgoing administration's popularity...and the Democrats couldn't even win the White House under that? That's a sure fire recipe for Democratic nihilism.

Lehman gets delayed by a year could be a scenario and McCain barely scraps it out with this map

Bush's approval ratings were really bad even before Lehman. I always thought no recession PLUS getting bin Laden in September or October might've led to a narrow Republican win in 2008.

John Edwards would lose even with the crash

[Sirius_]

A black candidate would come along eventually. I doubt that the country would just be permanently too racist to elect a black candidate in this timeline, and there are plenty of other reasons McCain could've won.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Someone was saying something?

[CumbrianLefty]

I presume that is a hypothetical map, but of what exactly?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I presume that is a hypothetical map, but of what exactly?

2010 Senate Elections if McCain wins in 2008.

[Rat]

Not at all, as long as McCain stays healthy and doesn't pass during the presidency, as Palin I think would be a disaster. I think McCain winning means we could potentially see something done on cap and trade or immigration reform without the obstructionist mentality the GOP members of Congress had during the Obama presidency. He's sympathetic to campaign finance reform, against torture, and doesn't want to go after entitlements to the same extent that the more conservative members of the GOP caucus do. I think domestically, he wouldn't be that far away from Obama, and would be more productive in certain areas (immigration, climate, etc), less productive in others (healthcare reform would be the big one). Foreign policy, he'd probably not have the Iran deal, nor would he have opened relations with Cuba. He wouldn't have began withdrawal from Iraq either. However, I do think something like the Paris Accords, TPP, etc would still be negotiated; McCain wasn't as hostile to internationalism as the Bush administration was.

Assuming McCain doesn't die in office, I think he'd have a pretty good shot in 2012 against Clinton if the economy starts recovering. I also think that this timeline averts Trump running (at least, as a Republican).

[Suburbia]

McCain winning might have spared America the racial and social divisiveness over the past few years...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The problem with this scenario is it brings up the question under what scenario can a Democrat win? 2008 was probably the worst fundamentals for a Republican Administration since the Great Depression. Like seriously look at the economic situation, the foreign situation with the Iraq War and outgoing administration's popularity...and the Democrats couldn't even win the White House under that? That's a sure fire recipe for Democratic nihilism.

Yeah, I don't think "can America elect a black guy" will be the first question most people will ask.