Echelon primary polls shows Trump dominating among Young Republicans and DeSantis with older (user search)
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  Echelon primary polls shows Trump dominating among Young Republicans and DeSantis with older (search mode)
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Author Topic: Echelon primary polls shows Trump dominating among Young Republicans and DeSantis with older  (Read 792 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,633
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: December 04, 2022, 02:59:51 PM »

Huh, fascinating. Would imply really different patterns (not just voting patterns, but probably also really different turnout patterns) relative to the 2016 primary, and perhaps other GOP primaries before that. Might be part of why pollsters are coming up with such ridiculously divergent numbers here.

DeSantis is much more anti gay than Trump, which is probably also a factor as most under 30s, even most under 30 Republicans, have at least one non straight friend.

There are rumors that DeSantis is bisexual/gay, so that may be in line with the Aaron Schock type of overcompensating.
If you are obsessed with what other people do in their bedrooms, you probably have some sexual skeletons in your closet. This has been known for ages. I've lost count of all the bigoted conservative politicians who turned out to be not exactly straight themselves.

Based on some of the rumors that have circulated so far, I think it's more likely that DeSantis is guilty of statutory rape than being a closeted gay man.

...dunno that I've heard either of these things. I want to say that one of the advantages of running a large-state Governor like DeSantis would be that he comes pre-vetted, since you'd guess there would've been large oppo-gathering operations during his campaigns and governorship, but then again given that nobody managed to find out during the campaign that Andrew Gillum did meth orgies perhaps you wouldn't expect that to be the case.
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,633
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2022, 06:06:00 PM »

...dunno that I've heard either of these things. I want to say that one of the advantages of running a large-state Governor like DeSantis would be that he comes pre-vetted, since you'd guess there would've been large oppo-gathering operations during his campaigns and governorship, but then again given that nobody managed to find out during the campaign that Andrew Gillum did meth orgies perhaps you wouldn't expect that to be the case.

And you'd think that Hershel Walker's scandals would have come up during vetting, or Brett Kavanaugh, or Cal Cunningham, etc... Maybe the people who vet candidates are just bad at their jobs?

All of these scandals came up during campaigns (a Supreme Court confirmation process being kinda like a campaign) -- DeSantis has had two campaigns in an enormous state, the first of which was extremely competitive and the second of which, while less so, still received substantial national attention.

(This sort of logic isn't absolute -- Gillum's scandal never came up during his campaign. But I think DeSantis would be less likely than almost any other Republican to have something come up unexpectedly, bar people from larger states or who have already run serious presidential campaigns, like Abbott/Cruz/Rubio. On the Democratic side, I would say that this sort of thing is probably one of Newsom's strengths -- while he's not scandal-free I think it's relatively unlikely there's stuff about him we don't know, relative to someone from a smaller state or with a shorter political biography.)
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Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,633
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2022, 08:31:56 PM »

Fractured party = defeats in the future.





This is an old pattern, but it really does not seem to have held in the 21st century. (In fact, in the years when both parties have had open primaries -- 2000, 2008, and 2016 -- it is distinctly the party with the more rancorous and negative process which has won: Republicans in 2000, Democrats in 2008, and Republicans again in 2016.)
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