Why are people so bullish on Nevada?

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think the race is tossup, but I don't understand the Laxalt hype for the following reasons:
1) Nevada polls tend to underestimate Ds, even in 2020 the RCP average was dead accurate. (I know it says Biden+2.7 for the final result, but it's actually Biden+2.4 RCP updated it too early)
2) CCM seems like a decent incumbent. She isn't a titanium individual like Manchin by any means, but her biggest problem is that people don't know who she is, not that she is very unpopular or anything.
3) Out of the "big 4" Senate races, Nevada went to Biden by the largest margin. I know that doesn't mean much, but it's important to note it was still bluer than AZ, GA, and PA in 2020 and is there any evidence that it is redder than them now?
Like I said, I'm not saying Laxalt can't win or anything, but I see so many people putting the race as seat 50 for the GOP. I think Rs have better odds here than AZ, but is it really an easier win than holding  PA or flipping GA?

[soundchaser]

Some people are heavily invested in the Latino trends from 2020 accelerating. (Most trends from 2020, really -- particularly in GA.)

[Ferguson97]

Because Laxalt is the only of the "big 4" Republican nominees who isn't a complete disaster. 

He's the only of the four to have any prior political experience and the Laxalt name actually means something in Nevada. Oz is a TV quack doctor out of touch with everyday people, Walker is brain-damaged and has a ton of scandals, and Masters comes across as creepy and full of himself.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I still think NV is D favoring. Tossup for sure, but it's a D-leaning Tossup.

[TML]

I think this is mostly a reaction to the following:

(1) Trump's gains among Hispanics and working-class voters (note that these voters are more unionized on average compared to their counterparts in the Upper Midwest & Appalachia) in the Las Vegas area in 2020.
(2) Harry Reid's death and progressive takeover of the old Reid political machine.

I certainly agree that it would be wrong for either Cortez-Masto or Sisolak to take their respective races for granted, but I also disagree with the notion that these races are "locks" for Laxalt and/or Lombardo.

[US Politics Fanatic]

Two reasons : Trends and candidate quality.

AZ and GA have been trending democrat since 2012. PA and NV have been trending republican since 2012 but Nevada trended 2.5 pts to the right in 2020 while Pennsylvania only trended 0.6 pts to the right. Furthermore, the consensus is that Adam Laxalt is a much better candidate than Blake Masters, Herschell Walker and Dr Oz. Also, Mark Kelly and Rafael Warnock are seen as better candidates than CCM.

[MT Treasurer]

Very good question, actually.

Lol. Safe D.

Unless Sandoval runs, Masto is probably favored though not safe. Democrats are pretty good at getting their voters out in midterms here (2014 was an exception for obvious reasons), so I'm not sure a good year for Republicans would be enough to flip this seat. I don't see it flipping before AZ, and it definitely doesn't flip before NH.

Titanium Tilt D.

Lean D. Nevada Republicans don't have much of a bench, and the Reid machine seems to turn out Democrats in Clark County even in most midterm elections. If CCM runs a strong campaign, she should win narrowly.

Cortez Masto is safe against anyone whose name isn't Brian Sandoval.

Laxalt would be one of the weaker opponents for CCM. He's a proven loser, running retreads statewide typically doesn't work. He definitely could win, but CCM would be the favorite unless 2022 is a massive wave.

Laxalt would be an incredible gift to Masto.

Of the Dems three vulnerable seats (NH, NV, and AZ), I would say this is the one with the best chance to stay D.  The Reid machine will be in full force trying to re-elect CCM and Sisolak and I actually think that Nevada may actually now be the mirror image of Florida.  A very inelastic state where Republicans can get very close statewide, but have a very hard time actually winning.

I guess the closest analogue for this race might be 2010? Obviously Reid was the Majority Leader at the time, and Angle wasn't exactly a good candidate, but the Democrats in Nevada have proven that they can win races in unfavorable years numerous times in the past.

[wbrocks67]

I think every voter getting a mail-in ballot is certainly an underrated aspect of this race. The biggest question for Dems in NV is turnout. Every voter getting a ballot alleviates a lot of that and makes it much easier to "GOTV"

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Look at the websites 2020 map that is the same map we are working on today and as I have said many times there can be upsets in red states for Ds

Everyone has AK Gov safe R if Dunleavy doesn't get 50 it's a runoff and he was last leading by 6 against Gara and 4 against Walker

[Coldstream]

I think the fact Laxalt is the only Republican candidate in a competitive race that isn’t deranged helps him and makes him seem more competitive - if he was running in Pennsylvania or Ohio I suspect no one would consider them competitive. In Georgia/Arizona he’d probably be favoured - or at least more competitive than Walker & Masters.

Personally I’m not even sure that’s unreasonable, Laxalt is certainly a better candidate than the other 4, even if the fundamentals are less positive for him than in the other states.

[If my soul was made of stone]

In addition to the aforementioned factors, the recent turnover in the state Dem apparatus hits two key pressure points of Atlas brain–fear of "big Twitter progressivism" rooted in #populist nostalgia and fear of a truly inclusive movement, and mourning the decline of machine politics less critically than it behooves oneself to in a way that pigeonholes the objects of their clientelism as noble savages who shouldn't transcend it–leading to this sort of motivated reasoning in hopes of "reclaiming" something that never really existed as such.

(The people talking up the WELL-OILED REID MACHINE always seemed to be vaguer on the bit where the machine actually delivers, however corruptly, for the voters it needs to hold power)

[Unelectable Bystander]

3 factors I think. First, it’s a generic D vs generic R in a state that tends to swing with (and even match) the national environment. If it’s truly a good republican year, Nevada should follow that pattern.

Second, there are factors unique to Nevada that make it seem primed to shift right (low college %, relies on driving, etc).

Finally, I think some of us have a bias where we are mentally preparing for the other 3 to lose, so you think “they can’t possibly be so unlucky to lose all 4 of the big races, so Laxalt will definitely win”. In reality, the weakness of others doesn’t actually make him stronger, so we’re probably slightly overestimating his chances and potentially even underestimating the others chances (even though he is by far the most likely to flip a seat red).

[coloradocowboi]

New Univision poll has Cortez masto up 2, leading with Latinos by more than 30.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Very good question, actually.

Lol. Safe D.

Unless Sandoval runs, Masto is probably favored though not safe. Democrats are pretty good at getting their voters out in midterms here (2014 was an exception for obvious reasons), so I'm not sure a good year for Republicans would be enough to flip this seat. I don't see it flipping before AZ, and it definitely doesn't flip before NH.

Titanium Tilt D.

Lean D. Nevada Republicans don't have much of a bench, and the Reid machine seems to turn out Democrats in Clark County even in most midterm elections. If CCM runs a strong campaign, she should win narrowly.

Cortez Masto is safe against anyone whose name isn't Brian Sandoval.

Laxalt would be one of the weaker opponents for CCM. He's a proven loser, running retreads statewide typically doesn't work. He definitely could win, but CCM would be the favorite unless 2022 is a massive wave.

Laxalt would be an incredible gift to Masto.

Of the Dems three vulnerable seats (NH, NV, and AZ), I would say this is the one with the best chance to stay D.  The Reid machine will be in full force trying to re-elect CCM and Sisolak and I actually think that Nevada may actually now be the mirror image of Florida.  A very inelastic state where Republicans can get very close statewide, but have a very hard time actually winning.

I guess the closest analogue for this race might be 2010? Obviously Reid was the Majority Leader at the time, and Angle wasn't exactly a good candidate, but the Democrats in Nevada have proven that they can win races in unfavorable years numerous times in the past.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

I was more bullish on NV-SEN for Dems than most of Atlas, because of Nevada's large Asian population and the state's rapid growth in recent years. I've noticed that states and metros that have trended D in recent years generally have larger Asian populations, while the reverse is true for R trending places like Florida. I also feel like there is stronger White-Asian polarization in the West (and possibly Midwest based on exit polls) than elsewhere in the country, and that diversification from transplants and international immigrants is keeping the D floor relatively high.

Screenshots of figures in link. Race and immigration status of the electorate didn't necessarily compensate for pandemic lockdowns or gas prices/bad public transit, but I was always skeptical of Laxalt winning by more than 2-3.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Tony McGovern , analysis by Patrick Adler

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Due to fact PA, NV, AZ and GA are blue states no longer purple

[GALeftist]

I guess the closest analogue for this race might be 2010? Obviously Reid was the Majority Leader at the time, and Angle wasn't exactly a good candidate, but the Democrats in Nevada have proven that they can win races in unfavorable years numerous times in the past.

Virgin November 2022 GALeftist getting spooked by polls he knew were bad and pundits he knew were bad vs. Chad November 2020 GALeftist trusting the plan

[Person Man]

He’s the one who kept it the closest out of the 5 out 7 Swing State Republicans who lost. He did the best out of all Republican challengers to incumbents.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He’s the one who kept it the closest out of the 5 out 7 Swing State Republicans who lost. He did the best out of all Republican challengers to incumbents.

Yea and he lost his second consecutive Eday, he was supposed to be at Sisolak in 2018 and didn't

[Spectator]

He’s the one who kept it the closest out of the 5 out 7 Swing State Republicans who lost. He did the best out of all Republican challengers to incumbents.

Probably more of a function of how polarized Nevada is. Siggal Chattah called for literally lynching Aaron Ford, and she only lost by 8%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He’s the one who kept it the closest out of the 5 out 7 Swing State Republicans who lost. He did the best out of all Republican challengers to incumbents.

Probably more of a function of how polarized Nevada is. Siggal Chattah called for literally lynching Aaron Ford, and she only lost by 8%.

Trump owned Casinos in IN why do you think he picked Pence Indiana Casino and friends with Wayne Newton and own Hotels he is very popular outside of Vegas like Carson City, that's why Rs overperform in NV Wayne Newton is a Native American tribesman and give per Capita to Ds whom are Native American and Latino in CA and NM, AZ, NV and CO but he said he is a Reagan Republican like Trump that's why Trump says he is a Reagan R like Wayne Newton

If you are Latino and Native American and you belong to Cherokee you get fat Per Capita , that's the only tribe that get fat Per Capita from Casinos

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

He’s the one who kept it the closest out of the 5 out 7 Swing State Republicans who lost. He did the best out of all Republican challengers to incumbents.

Probably more of a function of how polarized Nevada is. Siggal Chattah called for literally lynching Aaron Ford, and she only lost by 8%.

And the federal races in NV were even more polarized than the state ones were.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One thing I think is really notable about the 2022 election county is how going forwards, Washoe County really seems to be saving Dems ass. One thing I didn't expect is the County would account for her entire margin of victory, and going forwards Washoe netting Dems votes gives them a bit of breathing room in Clark.

In Clark, it's a bit unclear how much low minority turnout cost CCM, but in 2016 she lost Washoe so had to squeeze more out of Clark.

Clark is obv still the dominant County, but small dem gains around lake Da Hoe can really matter in a swing state like this.