kwabbit
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,801
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« on: December 02, 2022, 06:28:32 PM » |
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LaLota is favored. I'm inclined to think some of the LI swing is real. It swung hard in 2021 as well. The GOP found a winning message in 2021/22 here about crime and the police. Lean R.
From that, Santos starts as a tossup. His district isn't too Dem, Biden +8. I think it's perceived as Dem as D'Esposito's, but it's quite similar to Williams'. He might be able to generate a lot of crossover appeal if he doesn't play up the Jan 6 vibes.
D'Esposito will lose, but he seems more likely than Santos to overperform. Lean D.
Lawler is really playing up the bipartisanship already. He'll need the Orthodox vote in 2022. It was impressive he won despite them backing Maloney in the end. The district was only Clinton +2, so it's not as much of a lift as one would think to win it. Probably Tilt D.
Molinaro is in a Trump/Biden district, so it isn't that difficult to see him winning either. He also isn't extreme. He is lacking a geographic base now. It's pretty odd that he's not representing Duchess County. This one is a tossup.
Williams is also a tossup. If he's normal Syracuse could cling to him like they did to Katko. If the area was willing to have Katko win by 10 as Biden won by 10, then Williams can hope to replicate that 1/4. That's all he needs.
If I were to bet, I'd say LaLota, Molinaro, and Williams survive. But it would not take that much for Santos and Lawler to also survive. NY outside of the city is odd. It wouldn't be surprising for the GOP to hold up well there.
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