LaLota is favored. I'm inclined to think some of the LI swing is real. It swung hard in 2021 as well. The GOP found a winning message in 2021/22 here about crime and the police. Lean R.
From that, Santos starts as a tossup. His district isn't too Dem, Biden +8. I think it's perceived as Dem as D'Esposito's, but it's quite similar to Williams'. He might be able to generate a lot of crossover appeal if he doesn't play up the Jan 6 vibes.
D'Esposito will lose, but he seems more likely than Santos to overperform. Lean D.
Lawler is really playing up the bipartisanship already. He'll need the Orthodox vote in 2022. It was impressive he won despite them backing Maloney in the end. The district was only Clinton +2, so it's not as much of a lift as one would think to win it. Probably Tilt D.
Molinaro is in a Trump/Biden district, so it isn't that difficult to see him winning either. He also isn't extreme. He is lacking a geographic base now. It's pretty odd that he's not representing Duchess County. This one is a tossup.
Williams is also a tossup. If he's normal Syracuse could cling to him like they did to Katko. If the area was willing to have Katko win by 10 as Biden won by 10, then Williams can hope to replicate that 1/4. That's all he needs.
If I were to bet, I'd say LaLota, Molinaro, and Williams survive. But it would not take that much for Santos and Lawler to also survive. NY outside of the city is odd. It wouldn't be surprising for the GOP to hold up well there.
Clinton won Lawler's district by 8 points and Biden by 10; I think you might be thinking of the old config or smtg. It basically swung pretty hard left between 2016 and 2020 but the Orthodox pockets swung *extremely* hard towards Trump which mitigated the swings in the rest of the district. The Orthodox vote in this district is key to a Republican winning in a normal turnout year, and I expect Lawler to make ploys to try and get their support.
Trump basically maxed out the Orthodox vote in 2020 and still lost here by 10. If Dems can’t win back this seat with Presidential year turnout, they have real problems.
Maybe maxed out in terms of margin but not turnout. If they Orthodox community becomes more politically engaged that would be extremely powerful.
I think Lawler's biggest worry at this point is keeping the margins down in Westchester.
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