Michigan will replace Iowa as the first primary contest for Dems

[Mr. Smith]

Shoulda' gone with Wisconsin.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Congratulations to President Whitmer on January 20, 2029, I guess.

It's a pretty good state, all things considered. I still would have preferred Nevada - we really need to make sure potential candidates aren't weak with Hispanics these days - but Michigan does have pretty much every element of the current D coalition except that.

Nevada needs to be second, though.

I don't think Black women will take to that lightly.

Υou haven't the slightest idea what black women think.

Black women will not see that Harris is leapfrogged

Harris will ensure she's leapfrogged all by herself by running another pathetic embarrassment of a campaign.  She's an incompetent empty-suit who had no business serving in the Senate, much less being anywhere near the Presidency and everyone knows it.  She's only even VP b/c Biden wanted a low energy do-no-harm pick and of the options, she was the one who checked the most demographic boxes.  By any merit/competence-based measure, she's a clown to whom no major bloc of the party feels any great loyalty.  And if Democrats are dumb enough to nominate such an unfit, incompetent dumpster fire of a candidate, we'll get exactly what we deserve when we get slaughtered in 2028.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

"It can't be Iowa because it doesn't vote Democratic anymore!"

"Yay South Carolina!"

Iowa is being booted because it's unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition and because local Democrats botched it the last two times (especially in 2020). The fact that it became a solidly Republican state just sealed its fate because now national Democrats don't feel the need anymore to pander a potential swing state.

South Carolina is also unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition.

[ShadowRocket]

My ideal order would be this:

NH
NV
SC
MI
GA

I honestly don't have a problem with NH remaining first. I get the demographics criticism but I like its tradition of giving lesser funded candidates a chance to break from the pack. The inclusion of NV and SC more than balances it out. Not to mention the addition of GA as well.

[Landslide Lyndon]

"It can't be Iowa because it doesn't vote Democratic anymore!"

"Yay South Carolina!"

Iowa is being booted because it's unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition and because local Democrats botched it the last two times (especially in 2020). The fact that it became a solidly Republican state just sealed its fate because now national Democrats don't feel the need anymore to pander a potential swing state.

South Carolina is also unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition.

Is that a joke?

[Skill and Chance]

My ideal order would be this:

NH
NV
SC
MI
GA

I honestly don't have a problem with NH remaining first. I get the demographics criticism but I like its tradition of giving lesser funded candidates a chance to break from the pack. The inclusion of NV and SC more than balances it out. Not to mention the addition of GA as well.

I don't know about first, but Dems should absolutely have a Northeast state go early.  It's a hugely important part of their coalition.  I also like the idea of it being a small enough state that ad spending alone won't be decisive, which is what would likely happen in NY or MA. 

GA should probably replace SC at some point, but Dems would need a trifecta in GA to do that.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Congratulations to Gretchen Whitmer!

And goodbye Abby Finkenauer

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Democrats dont deserve to win 2024 if theyre gonna rig it

[Suburbia]

My ideal:

IL
SC
GA
NV
NH
MI
CA
....and IA, etc....

[Crackerjack McJohnson]

No Hispanics in Michegan bad move. 

[Panhandle Progressive]

Democrats dont deserve to win 2024 if theyre gonna rig it

What are you so upset about? Could it be your terrible predictions this year?

[Suburbia]

Congratulations to President Whitmer on January 20, 2029, I guess.

It's a pretty good state, all things considered. I still would have preferred Nevada - we really need to make sure potential candidates aren't weak with Hispanics these days - but Michigan does have pretty much every element of the current D coalition except that.

Nevada needs to be second, though.

I don't think Black women will take to that lightly.

Υou haven't the slightest idea what black women think.

Black women will not see that Harris is leapfrogged

Harris will ensure she's leapfrogged all by herself by running another pathetic embarrassment of a campaign.  She's an incompetent empty-suit who had no business serving in the Senate, much less being anywhere near the Presidency and everyone knows it.  She's only even VP b/c Biden wanted a low energy do-no-harm pick and of the options, she was the one who checked the most demographic boxes.  By any merit/competence-based measure, she's a clown to whom no major bloc of the party feels any great loyalty.  And if Democrats are dumb enough to nominate such an unfit, incompetent dumpster fire of a candidate, we'll get exactly what we deserve when we get slaughtered in 2028.

Are you discrediting her career as California AG? She actually did well in confronting the big banks who were foreclosing working people's homes?

[new_patomic]

"It can't be Iowa because it doesn't vote Democratic anymore!"

"Yay South Carolina!"

Iowa is being booted because it's unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition and because local Democrats botched it the last two times (especially in 2020). The fact that it became a solidly Republican state just sealed its fate because now national Democrats don't feel the need anymore to pander a potential swing state.

South Carolina is also unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition.

Is that a joke?

I don't think it's that far fetched?

Democrats are diverse but white voters still make up a, if narrow, majority. Whereas black voters I think are ~20 percent of the coalition give or take. A primary where black voters are hugely overrepresented versus the party as a whole isn't necessarily more representative than one that's lily-white like Iowa or New Hampshire. Though it'd have to depend on the exact numbers.

[Continential]

Congratulations to Gretchen Whitmer!

And goodbye Abby Finkenauer

Iowa said goodbye to her when she lost the Senate primary to Michael Franken.

[Landslide Lyndon]

"It can't be Iowa because it doesn't vote Democratic anymore!"

"Yay South Carolina!"

Iowa is being booted because it's unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition and because local Democrats botched it the last two times (especially in 2020). The fact that it became a solidly Republican state just sealed its fate because now national Democrats don't feel the need anymore to pander a potential swing state.

South Carolina is also unrepresentative of the Democratic coalition.

Is that a joke?

I don't think it's that far fetched?

Democrats are diverse but white voters still make up a, if narrow, majority. Whereas black voters I think are ~20 percent of the coalition give or take. A primary where black voters are hugely overrepresented versus the party as a whole isn't necessarily more representative than one that's lily-white like Iowa or New Hampshire. Though it'd have to depend on the exact numbers.

Black voters are the kingmakers of Democratic primaries. It's impossible to win without them.
White voters on the other hand blew it spectacularly in 2020.
New Hampshire hasn't chosen the eventual Democratic nominee since 2004. It has become almost an anti-bellwether state.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I know it's really fun for us to watch the primary results trickle in week by week state by state, but wouldn't the best solution for a representative primary just be holding it nationwide all on the same day?

No state is more representative of the country than all fifty of them

A national primary day would benefit candidates with more money/campaign infrastructure at the expense of those with less. Gradually narrowing the field down is better, but in an ideal world, the states would rotate. Spin a wheel, even.

But Democrats should go with Mississippi if they want an early state with a heavily black population. Unlike South Carolina, trends actually favor Democrats long-term in Mississippi and the state party isn't full of lunatics and grifters.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Democrats dont deserve to win 2024 if theyre gonna rig it

What are you so upset about? Could it be your terrible predictions this year?

I haven't done terrible predictions.

[MABA 2020]

The order should be:

NV
SC
NH
MI
Maybe GA

And then just do the rest of the states at once.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is really for 2028 Harris v Newsom primary and Newsom is only 6% in polls, without Iowa to hold Harris or a Wes Moore back there will be a blk D Prez because we will win the blue 🧱🧱

[beaver2.0]

Make it North Carolina

[LabourJersey]

pls no SC..if they want a state that has high Black population to be first, why not Georgia? SC is irrelevant in presidential elections & someone like Clyburn's endorsement will hold too much value...Atleast Georgia is a swing state and Georgia also has growing AAPI, Hispanic population.

I mean, Clyburn is potentially (probably) going to retire in 2024, and I don't see him having influence in 2028 and beyond.

I also think Clyburn's influence is highly exaggerated in political commentary about SC--people talk of him like he was the Palmetto State Mayor Daley or something.

[Frodo]

This new proposed primary calendar has Howard Dean's (remember him?) seal of approval:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1601218869837824002

[The Mikado]

This new proposed primary calendar has Howard Dean's seal of approval:

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1601218869837824002

He has more cause to hate Iowa than anyone else around, of course.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Dean was one of the best DNC heads. Obama replacing him with Kaine was one of his biggest mistakes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Dean was one of the best DNC heads. Obama replacing him with Kaine was one of his biggest mistakes.

Dean was probably the most successful DNC head in the 21st century to date.