Detailed National 2010-2020 growth map.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08dfad34-8612-4564-a858-d4f5e6a57355

Map above.

This is based on total population, not VAP. Blue means that area grew while red means it shrunk. 100% blue/red corresponds with 100% growth/decrease in population.

The COI that grew the most is in suburban Houston, Ft Bend County. It grew by 189%, meaning the population nearly tripled in just the past 10 years!

Fastest shrinking is based in Detroit, to the east of downtown. It shrunk by over 22% since 2010.

I'll give my more detailed thoughts in the posts below:

[ProgressiveModerate]

There were 3 main types of communities that saw "Rapid growth" (being defined as >30%) since 2010.

The first is somewhat obvious. It's the outer ring of suburbs/inner exurbs in basically any fast growing metro. A lot of these clearly stand out on the map above and are somewhat geographically large. This makes sense because when you have sprawl, the outer-ring of previously undeveloped areas is going to see rapid development. Inner suburbs which have already been developed by saw more modest growth, and even shrunk in a few cases. The clearest examples of fast growing exurbs are in Houston, Dallas, Orlando, Pheonix, ect. In metro LA it can be seen in the final part of OC that was relatively underdeveloped saw it's population more than double since 2010.'

The second are these coastal sorts of retiree/touristy communities like a lot of Florida, Myrtle Beach in SC, Gulf Shores AL, or Wilmington in NC. This is something we've seen for quite a while, and makes sense since especially on the east coast, waterfront is very desirable.

The third is the immediate immediate downtowns of large cities. Made a thread about this a while back, but if one zooms in on the map, it's notable in places like downtown Chicago, Atlanta, Seatlle, Philly, NYC, Miami, LA, SF, Denver, ect. This is probably a huge part of why NY outperformed on the 2020 census; I don't think it's as much of an "error" as many here seem to believe, though COVID def could've stalled or reversed this trend.

You also have a few random communities in the mountains that have been seeing rapid growth like Bozeman or western ND (oil).

As for communities that are shrinking there are 2 main types imo:

1. Rural areas that lack industry or rely on dying industry. These are mostly self-explanatory like parts of Appalachian with a history of coal, some farming communities around the country, lot of ol industrialized communities.

2. Homogenous black and Hispanic communities, mostly in cities. Think most of Detroit, Baltimore, south side of Chicago, Cleveland. But it's also true even in metro areas that are generally growing like Houston. This theme also holds for smaller heavily black communities in the deep south like black parts of Mobile, Shreveport, Birmingham, ect even though many of these communities have some faster growing suburbs and exurbs around them.

By and large though, the vast majority of the country has had pretty neutral growth.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Metro Chicago is a good example of several of the growth patterns listed above. The outer ring of suburbs/inner exurbs is seeing growth, as well as the immediate downtown in the "LOOP" area. Most already built suburbs have small net-positive growth. Heavily black and hispanic communities to the west and south of downtown have largely shrunk since 2010.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really don't think NY state had a significant overcount in the 2020 census. Upstate aligns with what you'd expect given results in neighboring parts of rural PA, MA, and VT.

Meanwhile in NYC, growth was largely concentrated in communities around midtown all of which have had very visible high-rise construction projects in the past decade. Remember, a 50-story apartment building can house like 1000 people. Communities like Jamacia, Dyker Heights, and Boro Park having noticeable growth makes sense.

I do however buy that there was an exodus from NYC that the 2020 census didn't really pick up on, and that the city has since shrunken, or at least stalled in population growth. However, if I had to guess by the end of the decade this rebounds.