OR Loses Population For First Time in Decades

[NOVA Green]

Oregon loses population for the first time in decades according to new US Census numbers.

More people left Oregon than moved into the state in 2022, a reversal of growth trends that had endured since the 1980s.

The new U.S. Census Bureau numbers mark the first time Oregon saw more people leaving than arriving since a housing crash in the early ‘80s caused a sharp recession in the state.

Oregon’s timber-dependent economy of the time meant it was among the hardest-hit states. That recession was the state’s deepest until the COVID-19 pandemic, and it took the better part of a decade for the state to regain the jobs lost. At that time, the state saw five years of net negative migration, according to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.

Today’s population decline comes in the wake of the COVID-19 recession, which upended the workforce as remote work introduced people to the possibility of working from anywhere. Portland was among the urban centers that saw unusually large numbers of residents leave during that time.

But while many cities, like Seattle and Fort Worth, saw reversals in population losses after the first full year of the pandemic, Portland continued to shed residents and was among the fastest shrinking big cities last year.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2023/09/more-left-oregon-than-arrived-last-year-census-bureau-says-reversing-decades-of-growth.html

[TML]

Indeed, several forecasts for 2030 reapportionment have suggested that OR is on track to lose the congressional seat (and extra electoral vote) it gained in 2020.

[NOVA Green]

Indeed, several forecasts for 2030 reapportionment have suggested that OR is on track to lose the congressional seat (and extra electoral vote) it gained in 2020.

Interesting but perhaps not completely surprising.

Me and my wife were chatting about this after I read snippets of the article to her and we were comparing notes about the Reagan Recession of the 1980s, which as they used to say in Oregon: "When the US gets a recession, Oregon gets a depression".

Still, there is a significant compare and contrast difference between OR in the early '80s, where some counties such as Douglas and Coos, had the equivalent of almost 20% real unemployment rates, at a time where 40% of the OR economy was associated with the timber industry.

This is obviously significantly different than today where OR unemployment is extremely low, and we still have one of highest % of manufacturing workers as % of POP in the nation.

Like any other major population shifts there are "push" and "pull" factors that cause people to move out and others that cause people to move in.

I would make the argument that the extremely high cost of housing in Oregon is the major driver behind this phenomenon.

The increased access to "remote work" gigs disproportionately benefited tech sector workers in OR, and to a lesser extent some in other extremely skilled and specialized occupations.

Perhaps what I am most curious about is less about the net *external* migration from Oregon, but rather the *internal* migration patterns, which are likely significantly larger when it comes to Oregonians moving between counties and congressional districts.

Deschutes County would obviously be a significant example of perhaps the impacts of internal OR migration between '20 and '22, although obvious caveat being net *external* migration there from states such as California (Obvious whipping post).

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

More people left Oregon than moved into the state in 2022, a reversal of growth trends that had endured since the 1980s... But while many cities, like Seattle and Fort Worth, saw reversals in population losses after the first full year of the pandemic, Portland continued to shed residents and was among the fastest shrinking big cities last year.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2023/09/more-left-oregon-than-arrived-last-year-census-bureau-says-reversing-decades-of-growth.html

I wonder how much of this was from Multnomah County residents moving to Clark County WA.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One notable thing is based on the 2020 census, nearly everywhere in Oregon gained population from 2010, with the distribution being mostly pretty uniform (and Bend standing out big time).

Does OR losing population suggest now most of the state is shrinking, or is it being powered by specific communities?



Here's 2010-2020 growth map. Blue is positive growth, red is negative growth (there is no red). As one can see, growth patterns were relatively consistent across the state with the biggest growth coming from Bend, the immediate downtown of Portland, and Portland's outer suburbs. The least growth was from some of Portland's inner suburbs and some rural communities in the south and eastern parts of the state.

[The Mikado]

Isn't the lesson of 2020 to just ignore the ACS and assume that if it's dramatically contradicting the census it's probably gonna prove wrong in the next census?

[Sestak]

Guys, come on…we have a half a dozen of these threads declaring some dramatic shift in trends by comparing the latest ACS to the previous census. The ACS and the census are clearly operating in two different worlds at present.

[NOVA Green]

More people left Oregon than moved into the state in 2022, a reversal of growth trends that had endured since the 1980s... But while many cities, like Seattle and Fort Worth, saw reversals in population losses after the first full year of the pandemic, Portland continued to shed residents and was among the fastest shrinking big cities last year.

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2023/09/more-left-oregon-than-arrived-last-year-census-bureau-says-reversing-decades-of-growth.html

I wonder how much of this was from Multnomah County residents moving to Clark County WA.

Solid point... living downstate don't follow metro PDX stuff as much as I should.

A few snippets to that point (I believe all non pay-walled):

https://www.columbian.com/news/2023/mar/23/in-our-view-numbers-dont-lie-clark-county-is-a-nice-place/

https://www.wweek.com/news/2023/02/23/the-couv-is-kicking-stumptowns-butt-on-economic-stuff/

Still looks like Deschutes County is still gaining much more than Clark County when in comes to PDXer's leaving for internal migration (If we consider Clark County to be "internal migration":

This is according to a PDX public records document.

https://efiles.portlandoregon.gov/Record/3660815/File/Document

[Vosem]

Isn't the lesson of 2020 to just ignore the ACS and assume that if it's dramatically contradicting the census it's probably gonna prove wrong in the next census?

This feels like a generalization from one example. Prior to 2020, the ACS tended to be accurate, and the Census has admitted that some of its counts in 2020 were flawed, with the ACS having been more accurate; the usual pattern was overcounts in Northern urban areas and undercounts in Sun Belt suburbs, though there are exceptions, which I think derive from how much particular states chose to cooperate, or not, with the Census.

2020 was a one-off failure caused by a mixture of the unexpected advent of COVID and Trumpian mismanagement, but I wouldn't really expect the same thing to happen again (and even if the ACS has errors in the 2020s, I wouldn't expect the error patterns to be the same as the ones from the 2010s, since the 2020 ones have been identified and at least on paper accounted for).

[Skill and Chance]

Would we reasonably expect Oregon will have to give back OR-06 after 2030?

[Aurelius2]

Greater Idaho will happen not by counties switching states, but instead by Idaho hoovering up Oregon's congressional districts. In 2030, it begins.

[Nutmeg]

Indeed, several forecasts for 2030 reapportionment have suggested that OR is on track to lose the congressional seat (and extra electoral vote) it gained in 2020.

Would we reasonably expect Oregon will have to give back OR-06 after 2030?

As others have said, far too early to tell, but if this did play out, it would be the first time a state gained and then lost a seat in successive reapportionments since Ohio's 24th seat that existed only from 1963 until 1973.

[Samof94]

Indeed, several forecasts for 2030 reapportionment have suggested that OR is on track to lose the congressional seat (and extra electoral vote) it gained in 2020.

A lot of this was Covid.