Could Trump drop out before 2024 arrives?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:57:15 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, GeorgiaModerate, KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸)
  Could Trump drop out before 2024 arrives?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Could Trump drop out before 2024 arrives?  (Read 1457 times)
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: December 01, 2022, 10:17:42 AM »

Maybe it's just too early in the cycle, but I feel like Trump's campaign doesn't gain much stream. I expected much more here, even in case he announced before spring 2023.

Do you see any conceivable scenario in which Trump drops out of the race before (the calendar year) 2024 even arrives? I mean unless he's forced by declining health or so. Tbh, I'm not sure the Trump campaign continues till 2024. On the other hand, I don't see him just quitting and quitely fading into the night.
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,021


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2022, 10:46:39 AM »

He only will if the polls show him losing to DeSantis or someone else. I am pretty sure he won't go into a race that he knows he will lose.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2022, 04:23:29 PM »

Other than health, I think that only happens when he's in serious legal jeopardy. Then he'll just claim that the system of radical leftists and RINOs is rigged against him.

I believe it's more likely his effort gains more steam as Trump inevitably heats up the rhetoric against DeSantis and other potential challengers. Trump is definitely not going away soon.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2022, 05:05:52 PM »

He only will if the polls show him losing to DeSantis or someone else. I am pretty sure he won't go into a race that he knows he will lose.

This.  Trump would not want to be humiliated.  If he is clearly trailing, he will drop out before the voting.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,620
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2022, 05:39:05 PM »

The grift is too lucrative to pass up.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,812
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2022, 06:55:35 PM »

I think the people saying that he'll drop out it looks like he's losing fundamentally misunderstand Trump. Dropping out would be admitting that he's lost. But by losing the nomination outright, he can save face by saying that it was rigged. Trump's ego would never let him accept that he's lost. He can never fail, he can only be failed.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,468
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2022, 10:01:44 AM »

I think the people saying that he'll drop out it looks like he's losing fundamentally misunderstand Trump. Dropping out would be admitting that he's lost. But by losing the nomination outright, he can save face by saying that it was rigged. Trump's ego would never let him accept that he's lost. He can never fail, he can only be failed.

Most likely you're correct... that said, if defeat looks likely, he may look for a way to pull out and avoid humiliation. I think he could just try to blame a conspiracy that forced him out and that "usually he would have won in a landslide."
Logged
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,356


Political Matrix
E: 3.42, S: 2.61

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2022, 11:11:25 AM »

I think the people saying that he'll drop out it looks like he's losing fundamentally misunderstand Trump. Dropping out would be admitting that he's lost. But by losing the nomination outright, he can save face by saying that it was rigged. Trump's ego would never let him accept that he's lost. He can never fail, he can only be failed.

Most likely you're correct... that said, if defeat looks likely, he may look for a way to pull out and avoid humiliation. I think he could just try to blame a conspiracy that forced him out and that "usually he would have won in a landslide."

Or just cite health or family issues
Logged
Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,021


Political Matrix
E: -1.94, S: -3.13

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2022, 11:35:39 AM »

It's also possible he could drop out and run on his own party ticket. That way, he could claim the GOP turned on him and he had no choice but to leave the party. I can't see him citing his family as a reason because he doesn't care what they want or think. Citing health would admit weakness as well.

It will be either claiming the GOP turned on him or the legal witchhunt forced him to drop out. That way he can be a martyr for his followers and save himself from a humiliating defeat in the primaries.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,798
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2022, 01:46:50 PM »

He isnt dropping out unless he is convicted because even a Prez DeSantis can pardon him, but a indictment is less likely to hurt DeSantis than a conviction but Rs are underdogs period they want to keep taxes low that's Federal taxes, rich already pays high Property taxes including FL low taxes is a trojan horse because we are taxed at state and Federal levels
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,592
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2022, 02:01:56 PM »

I think the people saying that he'll drop out it looks like he's losing fundamentally misunderstand Trump. Dropping out would be admitting that he's lost. But by losing the nomination outright, he can save face by saying that it was rigged. Trump's ego would never let him accept that he's lost. He can never fail, he can only be failed.

Most likely you're correct... that said, if defeat looks likely, he may look for a way to pull out and avoid humiliation. I think he could just try to blame a conspiracy that forced him out and that "usually he would have won in a landslide."

Or just cite health or family issues

Health would make him look weak, and Trump doesn't like to be perceived as weak.
Logged
Agonized-Statism
Anarcho-Statism
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,802


Political Matrix
E: -9.10, S: -5.83

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2022, 02:06:09 PM »

Seems out of character for him.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2022, 05:08:19 PM »

He only will if the polls show him losing to DeSantis or someone else. I am pretty sure he won't go into a race that he knows he will lose.
While this is a good point it's also true that we haven't seen DeSantis go up against Trump yet and we don't know how that would play out.
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,851


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2022, 05:10:33 PM »

If he drops out for any reason he will blame America and say that he can't count on a fair election, whether in the primary or the general.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2022, 05:14:16 PM »

If he drops out for any reason he will blame America and say that he can't count on a fair election, whether in the primary or the general.
The thing is when it comes down to it will GOP voters really pick DeSantis over him? I don't know.
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,851


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: December 05, 2022, 05:15:45 PM »

If he drops out for any reason he will blame America and say that he can't count on a fair election, whether in the primary or the general.
The thing is when it comes down to it will GOP voters really pick DeSantis over him? I don't know.

Depends on how tired of losing they get. We'll see what happens in Georgia tomorrow. If Warnock wins then Trump will likely take the blame again for that one, but if Walker wins then that's a big wild card.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 05, 2022, 05:16:21 PM »

If he drops out for any reason he will blame America and say that he can't count on a fair election, whether in the primary or the general.
The thing is when it comes down to it will GOP voters really pick DeSantis over him? I don't know.

 
Depends on how tired of losing they get. We'll see what happens in Georgia tomorrow. If Warnock wins then Trump will likely take the blame again for that one, but if Walker wins then that's a big wild card.
What about a Trump/DeSantis ticket?
Logged
DaleCooper
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,851


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 05, 2022, 05:22:24 PM »
« Edited: December 05, 2022, 05:38:42 PM by Your False god Won't Save You »

If he drops out for any reason he will blame America and say that he can't count on a fair election, whether in the primary or the general.
The thing is when it comes down to it will GOP voters really pick DeSantis over him? I don't know.

 
Depends on how tired of losing they get. We'll see what happens in Georgia tomorrow. If Warnock wins then Trump will likely take the blame again for that one, but if Walker wins then that's a big wild card.
What about a Trump/DeSantis ticket?

Trump doesn't like DeSantis and won't pick him. Trump is too insane at this point for anyone to be willing to vote for him because they like his VP. Though interestingly enough his VP is more important this time around since, if he wins, Trump is very likely to die in office. I doubt a man north of 350 pounds will live to be older than 82 when he already clearly fails to cope with the stress of the presidency.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,812
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 05, 2022, 08:14:40 PM »

If he drops out for any reason he will blame America and say that he can't count on a fair election, whether in the primary or the general.
The thing is when it comes down to it will GOP voters really pick DeSantis over him? I don't know.

Depends on how tired of losing they get. We'll see what happens in Georgia tomorrow. If Warnock wins then Trump will likely take the blame again for that one, but if Walker wins then that's a big wild card.

IDK, if you haven't abandoned Trump after November 8th, I don't see why the Georgia runoff would be the final straw. You either blame Trump for the midterms or you don't.
Logged
morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,018
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 07, 2022, 06:17:14 PM »

Honestly, I could see him dropping out of the republican primary, but I think that afterwards, he might go through with his threat that he made in 2016 that if he lost the primary, he would run third party, and I could see him becoming the first since 1968 to win a state or two at that rate. But then I think even he would be aware that this would basically be giving Biden a win on a silver platter, so I'm not sure. I will say that the only way he would probably completely leave the race is if Biden just didn't run or had to drop out himself. But I think that's highly unlikely.

-Morgan Kingsley
December 7 2022
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,553
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 07, 2022, 06:20:28 PM »

His ego won't allow it.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2022, 12:55:54 PM »

It’s about as likely as a dog ignoring a chicken liver smothered in peanut butter held up right in front of its nose.
Logged
Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin
Runeghost
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,367


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2022, 01:18:46 PM »


If it is a choice between being humiliated by losing primaries or dropping out, his ego may demand it.

I think it's an unlikely but possible scenario. Consider something like this:

Trump is polling poorly against a small field of credible challengers, and has refused to debate. Trump loyalists have tried and failed to cancel or otherwise interfere with primaries to Trump's benefit.

Trump comes in a dismal 2nd place in Iowa, and immediately goes off on the "anti-Trump GOP ESTABLISHMENT in league with DEMOCRATS, who didn't have ANY Iowa cacuses so that their voters could vote against Your Favorite President, RIGGED Iowa".  His campaign sues, but the lawsuit is unceremoniously tossed.

Internal polling by the Trump campaign suggests he's headed for an even worse defeat in NH, where he mjght not even place second, and cannot expect to do better than second NV or SC either.  Attempts to threaten the RNC and pre-emptive lawsuits also fail.

Trump announces that he is withdrawing from the RIGGED GOP primaries, announcing some sort of indepedent campaign to SAVE AMERICA. Whether a serious third-party challenge, or just pure grift, or even just a face-saving lie technically counts as "dropping out"  I do not know, but it seems at least possible to me.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,553
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: December 08, 2022, 07:07:31 PM »


If it is a choice between being humiliated by losing primaries or dropping out, his ego may demand it.

I think it's an unlikely but possible scenario. Consider something like this:

Trump is polling poorly against a small field of credible challengers, and has refused to debate. Trump loyalists have tried and failed to cancel or otherwise interfere with primaries to Trump's benefit.

Trump comes in a dismal 2nd place in Iowa, and immediately goes off on the "anti-Trump GOP ESTABLISHMENT in league with DEMOCRATS, who didn't have ANY Iowa cacuses so that their voters could vote against Your Favorite President, RIGGED Iowa".  His campaign sues, but the lawsuit is unceremoniously tossed.

Internal polling by the Trump campaign suggests he's headed for an even worse defeat in NH, where he mjght not even place second, and cannot expect to do better than second NV or SC either.  Attempts to threaten the RNC and pre-emptive lawsuits also fail.

Trump announces that he is withdrawing from the RIGGED GOP primaries, announcing some sort of indepedent campaign to SAVE AMERICA. Whether a serious third-party challenge, or just pure grift, or even just a face-saving lie technically counts as "dropping out"  I do not know, but it seems at least possible to me.

That's actually almost a best case scenario.
Logged
TodayJunior
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,531
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: December 08, 2022, 10:11:56 PM »
« Edited: December 08, 2022, 10:22:59 PM by TodayJunior »

If he ever did, he’d launch a third party most definitely similar to teddy Roosevelt in 1912. I’d say the map looks like this.

The bright side for the gop (if it even exists after this) or whatever opposition party forms out of this ash heap, is that things can only go up from here.

Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.054 seconds with 12 queries.