GA-Emerson: DeSantis leads Biden by 4, Trump trails by 1

[MT Treasurer]

47% DeSantis (R)
43% Biden (D)

44% Biden (D)
43% Trump (R)

Kimball noted, “Among Georgia independent voters, Biden wins over Trump by 6 points in a hypothetical contest, with 20% supporting ‘someone else.’ However, when the matchup is Biden vs. DeSantis, the Republican wins by three points, only 8% support “someone else.”

Kimball continued, “Among women, Biden leads Trump by seven points. Against DeSantis, Biden’s lead shrinks to two points. Among men, Trump leads Biden by eight, and DeSantis leads Biden by 11.”

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/georgia-2022-warnock-holds-slight-edge-over-walker/

[Skill and Chance]

Given 2022, I would expect this to be the swing state* with the biggest Trump/Generic R differential.

 
*Also technically VA, but it would likely be the difference between Biden +10 and Biden +5.

[Sir Mohamed]

DeSantis is a better fit for GA than Trump.

That said, I think this starts as a tossup in any matchup.

[Mr.Phips]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is a better fit for GA than Trump.

That said, I think this starts as a tossup in any matchup.

Lol DeSantis hasn't been scrutinized in a Prez campaign where he is against Student Loan Discharge and Warnock is leading he isn't leading anywhere he won FL by 60/40

[DaleCooper]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

[MT Treasurer]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

His polls will go down once he launches a Prez campaign because he DeSantis is against Student Loan Discharge and he is a Lawyer and went to an Ivy League schools just like Clarence Thomas is against Affirmative Action action and went to an Ivy League schools

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

You had Oz beating Fetterman, and you were wrong Biden isn't losing PA with Bob Casey Jr on the ballot

[2016]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

Bidens Job Approval in Georgia is in the low 40ties. Biden will not outrun his JA. His JA Nationally & in Battleground States will decide his fate if he wins another Term in two years.

Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama. Obama had 50+ % JA on E-Day 2012, Biden will never, ever have a 50+ % for the entirety of his Presidency I can guarantee you that.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

Bidens Job Approval in Georgia is in the low 40ties. Biden will not outrun his JA. His JA Nationally & in Battleground States will decide his fate if he wins another Term in two years.

Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama. Obama had 50+ % JA on E-Day 2012, Biden will never, ever have a 50+ % for the entirety of his Presidency I can guarantee you that.

You know that Trump had the same or lower approvals in some battlegrounds and still won them or came pretty close? Biden won't fall under 47% in GA no matter what. You also know that presidential approvals tend to go up once they start running for reelection?

[2016]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

Bidens Job Approval in Georgia is in the low 40ties. Biden will not outrun his JA. His JA Nationally & in Battleground States will decide his fate if he wins another Term in two years.

Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama. Obama had 50+ % JA on E-Day 2012, Biden will never, ever have a 50+ % for the entirety of his Presidency I can guarantee you that.

You know that Trump had the same or lower approvals in some battlegrounds and still won them or came pretty close? Biden won't fall under 47% in GA no matter what. You also know that presidential approvals tend to go up once they start running for reelection?

Trumps JA Nationally on E-Day 2020 was 47 % Nationally and he lost the Election.
George H. W. Bush JA Nationally on E-Day 1992 had 46-47 % and he lost the Election.

The only Incumbent President who had sub 50 % JA on E-Day and won was George W. Bush in 2004, was at 49 %.
Incumbent Presidents who have a sub 50 % on E-Day trend to lose.

DeSantis already at 47 % in GA is a good Start for him and if these Polls are continueing he can without a doubt make the case to Voters that he is more electable than Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

Bidens Job Approval in Georgia is in the low 40ties. Biden will not outrun his JA. His JA Nationally & in Battleground States will decide his fate if he wins another Term in two years.

Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama. Obama had 50+ % JA on E-Day 2012, Biden will never, ever have a 50+ % for the entirety of his Presidency I can guarantee you that.

You know that Trump had the same or lower approvals in some battlegrounds and still won them or came pretty close? Biden won't fall under 47% in GA no matter what. You also know that presidential approvals tend to go up once they start running for reelection?

Trumps JA Nationally on E-Day 2020 was 47 % Nationally and he lost the Election.
George H. W. Bush JA Nationally on E-Day 1992 had 46-47 % and he lost the Election.

The only Incumbent President who had sub 50 % JA on E-Day and won was George W. Bush in 2004, was at 49 %.
Incumbent Presidents who have a sub 50 % on E-Day trend to lose.

DeSantis already at 47 % in GA is a good Start for him and if these Polls are continueing he can without a doubt make the case to Voters that he is more electable than Trump.

Trump was lower for most of the time during his term and just gained in the months and weeks leading up to the election. I dunno why you assume that can't happen to Biden. Trump, Obama, Bush Jr and Clinton all looked more vulnerable during the midterm year than they actually were once they were up for reelection.

DeSantis being at 47% isn't that impressive (if we even take so early polls at face value), it's basically Generic R. And 47% is what he or any GOP candidate will get there no matter what (same with Biden, he won't fall below 47% here).

[Agafin]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

Bidens Job Approval in Georgia is in the low 40ties. Biden will not outrun his JA. His JA Nationally & in Battleground States will decide his fate if he wins another Term in two years.

Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama. Obama had 50+ % JA on E-Day 2012, Biden will never, ever have a 50+ % for the entirety of his Presidency I can guarantee you that.

You know that Trump had the same or lower approvals in some battlegrounds and still won them or came pretty close? Biden won't fall under 47% in GA no matter what. You also know that presidential approvals tend to go up once they start running for reelection?

Trumps JA Nationally on E-Day 2020 was 47 % Nationally and he lost the Election.
George H. W. Bush JA Nationally on E-Day 1992 had 46-47 % and he lost the Election.

The only Incumbent President who had sub 50 % JA on E-Day and won was George W. Bush in 2004, was at 49 %.
Incumbent Presidents who have a sub 50 % on E-Day trend to lose.

DeSantis already at 47 % in GA is a good Start for him and if these Polls are continueing he can without a doubt make the case to Voters that he is more electable than Trump.

Trump was lower for most of the time during his term and just gained in the months and weeks leading up to the election. I dunno why you assume that can't happen to Biden. Trump, Obama, Bush Jr and Clinton all looked more vulnerable during the midterm year than they actually were once they were up for reelection.

DeSantis being at 47% isn't that impressive (if we even take so early polls at face value), it's basically Generic R. And 47% is what he or any GOP candidate will get there no matter what (same with Biden, he won't fall below 47% here).

This makes no sense. How is that not impressive when Biden (the incumbent president) gets 43% in the same poll? Or do you expect 100% of undecided voters to be democrats?

[DaleCooper]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

Lake was no Kemp, but I think other performances by Republicans in AZ should worry them going into 2024. In particular, seeing how hard Masters crashed and burned was quite telling. 2020 proved in my opinion that there isn't some unique bipartisan love for Kelly in Arizona (like there is for say Collins in Maine), as he didn't do all that much better than Biden. 2022 Senate also indicated that there are a lot of Arizona Republican voters willing to vote for Libertarians, at least based on results from all those red counties. It adds to my prediction that Trump has a lot more to fear from third-party defections than Biden does in 2024.

[Skill and Chance]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

Yes, this year kind of scrambled things.  Looks like compared to expectations, Dobbs helped Democrats a lot in the North and West but if anything helped Republicans a bit in the South.  AZ could plausibly be going the way of CO now given Lake lost even while improving on Trump's Hispanic numbers.

What are you thinking about PA?  That it might be an easier than expected Dem win?

[MT Treasurer]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

Yes, this year kind of scrambled things.  Looks like compared to expectations, Dobbs helped Democrats a lot in the North and West but if anything helped Republicans a bit in the South.  AZ could plausibly be going the way of CO now given Lake lost even while improving on Trump's Hispanic numbers.

What are you thinking about PA?  That it might be an easier than expected Dem win?

The problem in AZ is that it all comes down to Maricopa County, and the trend line there is unambiguously bad for the GOP. The retiree areas are basically maxed out in terms of margins and not attracting as many new newcomers as states like FL. The Hispanic vote is largely concentrated in urban areas, and even if the Native counties in the North started shifting right, it wouldn’t be enough to counteract Maricopa.

No, I said that PA is still a Toss-up and that people shouldn’t read too much into Oz's and Mastriano's performances. PA is a must-win for any Republican nominee if AZ and GA give out for the GOP:

This was 270D-268R before redistricting, it’s 270R-268D now! A very underrated map in general, if you ask me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

Yes, this year kind of scrambled things.  Looks like compared to expectations, Dobbs helped Democrats a lot in the North and West but if anything helped Republicans a bit in the South.  AZ could plausibly be going the way of CO now given Lake lost even while improving on Trump's Hispanic numbers.

What are you thinking about PA?  That it might be an easier than expected Dem win?

The problem in AZ is that it all comes down to Maricopa County, and the trend line there is unambiguously bad for the GOP. The retiree areas are basically maxed out in terms of margins and not attracting as many new newcomers as states like FL. The Hispanic vote is largely concentrated in urban areas, and even if the Native counties in the North started shifting right, it wouldn’t be enough to counteract Maricopa.

No, I said that PA is still a Toss-up and that people shouldn’t read too much into Oz's and Mastriano's performances. PA is a must-win for any Republican nominee if AZ and GA give out for the GOP:

This was 270D-268R before redistricting, it’s 270R-268D now! A very underrated map in general, if you ask me.

Lol you wish we are gonna lose PA and WI with Tammy Baldwin and Bob Casey Jr up for reelection you had Oz beating Fetterman ha

[Skill and Chance]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

Yes, this year kind of scrambled things.  Looks like compared to expectations, Dobbs helped Democrats a lot in the North and West but if anything helped Republicans a bit in the South.  AZ could plausibly be going the way of CO now given Lake lost even while improving on Trump's Hispanic numbers.

What are you thinking about PA?  That it might be an easier than expected Dem win?

The problem in AZ is that it all comes down to Maricopa County, and the trend line there is unambiguously bad for the GOP. The retiree areas are basically maxed out in terms of margins and not attracting as many new newcomers as states like FL. The Hispanic vote is largely concentrated in urban areas, and even if the Native counties in the North started shifting right, it wouldn’t be enough to counteract Maricopa.

No, I said that PA is still a Toss-up and that people shouldn’t read too much into Oz's and Mastriano's performances. PA is a must-win for any Republican nominee if AZ and GA give out for the GOP:

This was 270D-268R before redistricting, it’s 270R-268D now! A very underrated map in general, if you ask me.

OK, that makes sense. 

For that map, I do question whether NC would hold up for R's in a world where GA is voting that far left?

[Spectator]

I think both will lose, though DeSantis will keep it a lot closer.

I'm reading DeSantis at 47% vs. Biden as basically just Generic R vs. Biden, and Biden is definitely not getting less than 47 in Georgia, no matter who he is up against.

Bidens Job Approval in Georgia is in the low 40ties. Biden will not outrun his JA. His JA Nationally & in Battleground States will decide his fate if he wins another Term in two years.

Joe Biden isn't Barack Obama. Obama had 50+ % JA on E-Day 2012, Biden will never, ever have a 50+ % for the entirety of his Presidency I can guarantee you that.

You know that Trump had the same or lower approvals in some battlegrounds and still won them or came pretty close? Biden won't fall under 47% in GA no matter what. You also know that presidential approvals tend to go up once they start running for reelection?

Trumps JA Nationally on E-Day 2020 was 47 % Nationally and he lost the Election.
George H. W. Bush JA Nationally on E-Day 1992 had 46-47 % and he lost the Election.

The only Incumbent President who had sub 50 % JA on E-Day and won was George W. Bush in 2004, was at 49 %.
Incumbent Presidents who have a sub 50 % on E-Day trend to lose.

DeSantis already at 47 % in GA is a good Start for him and if these Polls are continueing he can without a doubt make the case to Voters that he is more electable than Trump.

Trump was lower for most of the time during his term and just gained in the months and weeks leading up to the election. I dunno why you assume that can't happen to Biden. Trump, Obama, Bush Jr and Clinton all looked more vulnerable during the midterm year than they actually were once they were up for reelection.

DeSantis being at 47% isn't that impressive (if we even take so early polls at face value), it's basically Generic R. And 47% is what he or any GOP candidate will get there no matter what (same with Biden, he won't fall below 47% here).

Trump had the potential to do a little worse than 47% here if he’s the nominee again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I still think this is the mostly likely to stay Dem in 2024 out of what I think are tossups (AZ/GA/NV/WI).

I used to think GA was a much better bet for Democrats than AZ, but I’m less sure about that now. I’m also not convinced that PA isn’t a Toss-up.

Yes, this year kind of scrambled things.  Looks like compared to expectations, Dobbs helped Democrats a lot in the North and West but if anything helped Republicans a bit in the South.  AZ could plausibly be going the way of CO now given Lake lost even while improving on Trump's Hispanic numbers.

What are you thinking about PA?  That it might be an easier than expected Dem win?

The problem in AZ is that it all comes down to Maricopa County, and the trend line there is unambiguously bad for the GOP. The retiree areas are basically maxed out in terms of margins and not attracting as many new newcomers as states like FL. The Hispanic vote is largely concentrated in urban areas, and even if the Native counties in the North started shifting right, it wouldn’t be enough to counteract Maricopa.

No, I said that PA is still a Toss-up and that people shouldn’t read too much into Oz's and Mastriano's performances. PA is a must-win for any Republican nominee if AZ and GA give out for the GOP:

This was 270D-268R before redistricting, it’s 270R-268D now! A very underrated map in general, if you ask me.

OK, that makes sense.  

For that map, I do question whether NC would hold up for R's in a world where GA is voting that far left?

You had this map last time  in 2020 and you Lost , lol he predicted Oz to Def Fetterman

[Ferguson97]

I can totally buy DeSantis winning Georgia and Trump losing it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I can totally buy DeSantis winning Georgia and Trump losing it.

.
DeSantis hasn't been scrutinized in a Prez race he only has been scrutinized in FL where the state doesn't have state income taxes and tax cuts are popular in the blue wall states tax cuts are unpopular we have state income taxes and high property Taxes

DeSantis is losing 43/39 in the Emerson he isn't winning 60/40 like he just did in a midterm in FLORIDA , FL and OH aren't voting 20% to the right of the nation anymore that was very special if DeWikne underperforming Vance would have lost but no scandal DeWine helped Vance but Rs aren't winning OH by 20 in 24 allowing 3*Brown has a chance