1 week out, what exactly is Walker’s path to victory?

[Tekken_Guy]

What exactly needs to happen for Herschel Walker to win?

[MT Treasurer]

This, according to the NRSC/Rick Scott:

https://www.nrsc.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/11.30-Memo.pdf

(Ignore the positive spin and focus on what they have identified as his path, none of which is really surprising)

[Sir Mohamed]

Low Dem turnout because senate control is already decided.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is none it's a status quo Eday just like Manchin, Brown and Tester are safer than usual because it's 4% unemployment not a single Incumbent Senator has been defeated

[Ferguson97]

Walker's best chance of winning is for the RNC to bribe a woman to falsely accuse Warnock of sexual assault.

[NewYorkExpress]

Warnock probably needs to no longer be alive for Walker to realistically have a chance at winning.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

D turnout cratering on Eday with R turnout going up massively. I don’t see it.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I wonder if Duncan's open admission that he won't vote for Walker will be taken by a substantial number of Republican rank-and-file as a sign that they should sit this one out.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I wonder if Duncan's open admission that he won't vote for Walker will be taken by a substantial number of Republican rank-and-file as a sign that they should sit this one out.

I think it’s more a sign of traditional Rs having a hard time voting for him. Not a good sign for Walker.

[Podgy the Bear]

The obvious and overwhelming factor is turnout and Democratic complacency. 

Yesterday's Survey USA poll indicates a 3-4 point lead for Warnock, but from the November results, 77% of Walker voters will definitely vote in the runoff vs. 70% of Warnock voters--whereas more Warnock voters are "50/50" or may not vote.  This alone is enough of a concern to make this a very close race on Tuesday night.

[Rookie Yinzer]

He has none. Warnock’s performance on election night was nothing short of amazing. I don’t see how he loses in an electorate that will probably be less R than November.

[SInNYC]

D complacency should be a worry. Although the per-day turnout figures are high, EV in the runoff will still end up much lower than in the past since there are so many fewer days. D voters cant stay home on election day thinking that Warnock has it in the bag.

[Del Tachi]

The runoff electorate being more R than November

[Rookie Yinzer]

D complacency should be a worry. Although the per-day turnout figures are high, EV in the runoff will still end up much lower than in the past since there are so many fewer days. D voters cant stay home on election day thinking that Warnock has it in the bag.

They don’t think that though. That’s projection from terminally online pundits.

[Tekken_Guy]

The obvious and overwhelming factor is turnout and Democratic complacency.  

Yesterday's Survey USA poll indicates a 3-4 point lead for Warnock, but from the November results, 77% of Walker voters will definitely vote in the runoff vs. 70% of Warnock voters--whereas more Warnock voters are "50/50" or may not vote.  This alone is enough of a concern to make this a very close race on Tuesday night.

That Warnock +4 is just with Likely voters actually.  If they were getting Warnock+4 from all voters surveyed and we were seeing that enthusiasm gap maybe that would be problematic.

[Xing]

At this point, massive R turnout on Election Day seems like the only way Walker could win.

[Tekken_Guy]

At this point, massive R turnout on Election Day seems like the only way Walker could win.

More specifically, Massive R turnout that isn't accompanied by particularly strong D turnout. Also he can't afford many defections.

[Adam Griffin]

2.2 million votes or more on Election Day (aka higher overall turnout in the runoff than there was in the GE).

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Has to hope for a stagnated D-turnout, a juiced-up R-turnout, and pretty much straight Republican allegiance from those who voted Libertarian/other on E-day (as well as hoping for those voters to show up en masse too).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has to hope for a stagnated D-turnout, a juiced-up R-turnout, and pretty much straight Republican allegiance from those who voted Libertarian/other on E-day (as well as hoping for those voters to show up en masse too).

Pretty much.